274
FXUS64 KLZK 280701
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Local radars have been showing an increase in shower activity over
the past several hours as an upper level impulse over the central
high plains approaches. This impulse will ride the northwest flow
and low level jet currently in place through the remainder of the
night with ongoing precipitation chances.

Guidance has not deviated much in its previous thinking that
widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread all of the
state during the day Thursday with the impulse taking on more of
an linear MCS look as it drops further south later in the day.

Guidance continues to indicate a substantial temperature gradient
developing across the CWA today with the impulse eventually
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary located over the
ARKLATEX. All CAMS models are showing an increase in convection
and QPF as this scenario unfolds with a narrow band of rain
amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range with locally heavier amounts.

The majority of the CAMS guidance is in good agreement with the
nested NAM the definite outlier compared to the other models. HRRR
solution seems to have a good handle based on its initialization
and will be the preferred model this morning. As such, a small
flash flood watch has been issued for parts of north central
Arkansas where this aforementioned heavier band is likely to set
up.

Models are hinting at the possibility of strong surface heating
and subsequent destabilization over the southwest corner of the
CWA where highs are forecast to get into the lower to mid 80s
with the remainder of the CWA only getting into the 60s and 70s.
Some stronger storms may be able to get going during the afternoon
with some gusty winds and marginally large hail. This is definitely
not an ideal set up for severe weather but a few storms can not
be discounted either.

As the wave moves away tonight, precipitation chances will end
across the north. Most of the CAMS guidance continues to hold onto
the aforementioned linear looking MCS through early Friday
morning over the south as the low level jet kicks in again. The
entire system looks to clear the CWA by noon Friday with a some
showers still possible over the south through Saturday.

Northwest flow will continue over the CWA through the forecast
period as persistent synoptic scale troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. Guidance is showing a few weak shortwaves moving
through the base of the trough but are having some difficulty in
the finer details and will continue a mainly dry forecast at this
time.

Temperatures today and Friday will average well below average for
most of the state with the widespread cloud cover and ongoing
precip chances. Temperatures will begin to warm back up Saturday
and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

An increase in overnight SHRA/RA activity should bring MVFR/IFR
CIGs to Nrn sites before 12z, then spread SEwrd through the
daytime on Thurs. Mentioned TSRA over Cntrl/Srn sites during the
PM associated with a stronger upper level disturbance passing
through the flow. Winds may become gusty between 15-30 kts near
convection with reduced VIS`bys near these storms, otherwise winds
should be E/SE at around 10 kts. MVFR/IFR CIGs should remain in
place across the state through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  60  80  62 /  80  50  30  10
Camden AR         85  65  76  66 /  80  80  90  40
Harrison AR       67  60  73  59 / 100  50  30  10
Hot Springs AR    75  64  74  64 /  90  80  70  30
Little Rock   AR  70  64  75  65 /  80  80  60  20
Monticello AR     83  65  79  67 /  70  80  80  40
Mount Ida AR      75  63  74  64 /  90  90  70  30
Mountain Home AR  69  59  78  60 /  90  40  20  10
Newport AR        71  60  80  63 /  70  40  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     77  64  75  64 /  70  80  60  30
Russellville AR   71  64  75  64 /  90  80  50  20
Searcy AR         70  62  76  63 /  90  70  40  10
Stuttgart AR      72  65  76  65 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ004-103-112-113-203-212-
213-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70