


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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059 FXUS64 KLZK 140432 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 -Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across the forecast area through the coming workweek, with dry and settled conditions prevailing over this period. -Unsettled weather, including rain and thunderstorm chances appear possible across the region by late workweek into the weekend, but uncertainties remain between exact timing, QPF, and severe weather possibilities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The main driver of weather conditions through the workweek into the following weekend will be upper lvl features. First, for the majority of the workweek (through Thursday), a dominant upper lvl ridge will be fixated over Arkansas leading to a period of tranquil and unseasonably warm weather. However, into the late workweek and weekend, an upper lvl trof and associated cold front will approach Arkansas which will present a significant chance for precipitation. MONDAY (TODAY) THROUGH THURSDAY: Surface high pressure will be settled across the Southeastern region of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny skies across the Natural State. Additionally, this surface feature will lead to a continued advection of southerly and southeasterly flow into Arkansas promoting a warm and moist airmass to be ushered into the state. Expect temperatures overall to remain unseasonably warm for this time of the year averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above normal overall. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take place by late workweek. An upper lvl trof is going to dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a cold front across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model guidance of both the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion in the placement of shower and thunderstorm activity across Arkansas on Saturday into Sunday as a cold front is expected to traverse the state from northwest to southeast beginning Saturday with the cold front completing the journey across the state during the day on Sunday. However, specifics remain too far in advance to nail down with respect to exact timing, rainfall totals, and the possibility of severe weather. Expect on Friday temperatures to remain unseasonably warm by 5 to 10 degrees across Arkansas with fair weather conditions ahead of the approaching cold front as a return to predominately southerly flow will commence advecting warm air and moisture into the state. Saturday and Sunday will be the days in which noted temperatures will lower due to a combination of rain-cooled air, cloud cover, and the FROPA as a drier and cooler airmass will funnel in behind the cold front, especially on Sunday as the cold front begins to progress away from the state. In upcoming forecast discussions and packages, specifics will begin to be discussed as the event draws closer. It does heed mentioning that confidence is high that the state will experience widespread rainfall, especially when signals this far out from model guidance show cohesion and confidence. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK may experience patchy, dense fog dropping flight category to IFR early Tuesday morning; this possibility has been captured by the introduction of a TEMPO group for each site. By later Tuesday morning, VSBY will improve to VFR flight category and remain through the rest of the forecast period. All other terminals will remain VFR for the entire duration of the forecast period from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. The sites of KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ will experience surface wind gusts in excess of 21 knots from Tuesday late morning through Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 59 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 89 58 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 77 61 82 57 / 10 10 10 10 Hot Springs AR 86 61 86 59 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 84 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 87 59 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 61 86 58 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 77 60 84 57 / 10 10 0 10 Newport AR 84 61 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 59 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 88 64 87 60 / 10 10 0 0 Searcy AR 87 61 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 84 60 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74