211
FXUS64 KLZK 011719
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The upper shortwave located over SRN/SERN AR early this Tue morning
is generating a few very spotty areas of sprinkles or SHRA over
south-central portions of the state. Otherwise...mainly dry
conditions are ongoing. Light winds and a clearing sky may create
some patchy fog this morning...but shouldn`t become too widespread.
However...will monitor trends in the coming few hrs unless this
changes.

A cold front over SERN KS early this morning will drop SE towards
the state...moving SE into AR by around sunrise. This front will
move SE through the state by late tonight into very early Wed
morning...with drier and cooler air filtering into the state as a
result. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 70s across NRN
AR behind the front...to the 80s to near 90 further south ahead of
the front. Lows by Wed morning will have dropped considerably into
the mid to upper 40s across the north...to the 50s across SRN
sections. Highs on Wed will be in the 70s to low 80s for most
areas...with dewpts dropping down into the 30s and 40s. This will
result in min RH values dropping below 30 percent for several
areas...which may create an elevated wild fire threat.
However...winds will have lessened by the time the driest air
arrives. Expect lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s by Wed night. No
significant precip is expected through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A benign weather pattern will continue through the long term. To
begin, a subtle upper ridge should be located invof the Carolina`s
with near zonal flow over setup across the nations mid-section.
Moving ahead through the weekend, this pattern should become more
NWrly over the Cntrl CONUS as another ridge builds over the Four
Corners region.

Closer to the surface, high pressure will shift to the E with return
flow returning to AR. Another cold front will approach Nrn AR over
the weekend, however limited moisture ahead of the front should
preclude PoPs plus this front should stall before entering AR.
Another push of this front is expected by Monday with the center of
stronger high pressure settling into MO/IA/IL. No precipitation is
in the forecast during the long term at this time.

Highs should range from the upper 70s to upper 80s on Thursday.
Temperatures should slowly moderate through Sunday with afternoon
highs eventually reaching the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Cooler air
should arrive by Monday with readings topping out in the 70s over
the NE half of AR to lower/mid 80s over SE half of AR. Lows should
be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected during this period. A north surface
wind of 5-8kts will prevail through 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         87  55  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       77  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    89  55  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  89  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     88  57  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      89  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  78  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        84  49  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  53  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   87  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         86  50  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      86  53  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...55