537
FXUS64 KLZK 031711 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Some very spotty pockets of rain were noted over WRN sections early
this Thu morning...activity due to a weak upper wave passing over
this region of the state. There will remain some potential for this
very spotty rain early this morning as the upper wave moves east
over the state.

SFC high pressure over NRN section of AR early this morning will
slide slowly east into this afternoon...with dewpts increasing back
into the 70s for many areas. However...some weak energy aloft will
move over WRN sections again this Thu afternoon...with some low end
POPs noted as a result. This precip and cloud cover will keep temps
from warming too far this afternoon...but will still temps a few deg
warmer than seen on Wed.

The slow warming trend and moisture increase will continue for Fri
as well..with some isolated/widely scattered convection for WRN
sections again Fri afternoon. Temps/dewpts will combine to see heat
index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 today and Fri...but
most areas should remain below Heat Adv criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Bimodal upper ridging will be in place across the Srn CONUS to begin
the period. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will
be tracking Ewrd across the upper Mid-West, between maxima`s in the
ridge. By Sunday into Monday, the aforementioned trough will slide
Ewrd with NW flow developing across the nations mid-section in its
wake. Wrn portion of the ridge will retrograde into the Four Corners
region and amplify. This will increase the NWrly component of H500
flow through mid-week.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. With NW flow setting up
over the region next week, this will allow upper level systems to
track across the state. Each passing system will introduce increased
PoP chances. While the current threat for severe weather looks low,
we will have to monitor for the potential of MCS activity,
especially on Wednesday. If this were to occur, damaging winds could
become an increasing concern.

Temperatures through the period will largely be in the 90s, with a
slight cool down anticipated by next week in relation to increased
PoP chances and increased cloud cover. Even with temperatures
cooling down a bit, this will be offset by increasing low level
moisture. Combining the expected temperatures and anticipated
humidity together, apparent temperatures should climb above 100
degrees Monday through Wednesday, possibly exceeding 105 degrees in
some locations. Heat headlines may be needed to account for areas
reaching or exceeding 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A few isolated showers and storms will remain possible from west-
central to southern AR through this afternoon. Most of the
activity should remain away from area terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected along with light/variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  92  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         72  94  72  97 /  10  20   0  10
Harrison AR       68  88  69  89 /   0  20   0  20
Hot Springs AR    73  92  72  95 /   0  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  74  93  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
Monticello AR     73  94  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      71  91  71  93 /  10  30   0  10
Mountain Home AR  69  90  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
Newport AR        73  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     73  92  72  95 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   72  92  72  94 /   0  20   0  10
Searcy AR         71  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      74  92  74  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67