166
FXUS64 KLZK 181103 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

-Dangerous heat will persist across the state for another couple
 days before some relief is seen.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible again today, with
 microbursts possibly producing strong wind gusts in a few storms.

-Rainfall may be a little more widespread Tue-Wed as a cold front
 moves across the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Another day of dangerous heat is expected across the state and
heat headlines have been expanded to include extreme heat warnings
for portions of eastern, central and western Arkansas. High
temperatures on Sunday were fairly extreme in nature, with KRUE
hitting 106 F for an afternoon high. Many other reporting stations
hit the century mark as well. These numbers were close to
yesterday`s NBM90 values and utilized some of that data to
forecast today`s high temperatures.

Isolated showers/storms possible once again today, mainly during
the afternoon/evening hours. Main concerns will again be
microbursts that could produce very localized wind damage, as well
as a few heavy downpours.

H500 ridging will begin to expand west across the western CONUS
over the next few days which will provide mid-level NW/N flow
across the region. This will help push a cold front through and
as the front moves across the area, precip may become a bit more
widespread. Will have to watch for isolated severe storms given
the heat and associated extreme instability in place near the
boundary.

Some areas could begin to see relief on Tuesday with more of the
state expected to see cooler temps by Wed-Thu. Will monitor latest
trends to see if/where heat headlines are needed over the next
couple days.

Will continue to see temperatures closer to normal through the
upcoming weekend with a break in heat headlines possible for
several days. Another front may move across the state by early
next week which could provide below normal temperatures for late
August across Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Generally VFR condtions are expected through the period with
light/variable winds at less than 10 kts. A few storms are
expected this afternoon (18/18z to 19/00z) which could impact
area terminals, but coverage should remain limited. If a terminal
is impacted, erratic/strong winds gusts are possible along with
reduced cigs/vsby.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  75 100  73 /  20  20  30  40
Camden AR        101  73 101  72 /  20  20  10  10
Harrison AR      100  73  96  70 /  30  30  40  40
Hot Springs AR   101  76 102  74 /  30  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR 102  77 100  75 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR    101  75 101  75 /  20  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      99  73 100  72 /  20  20  20  20
Mountain Home AR 101  72  98  71 /  40  40  40  40
Newport AR       100  75 100  74 /  20  20  20  30
Pine Bluff AR    102  74 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
Russellville AR  105  76 102  75 /  30  30  30  30
Searcy AR        101  75 101  73 /  30  30  20  30
Stuttgart AR     101  76 101  75 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>007-014-015-
024-052-053-062-063-066>069-103-113-123-137-140-141-212-213-
221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-121-122-130-138-230-
238.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67