773
FXUS64 KLZK 152321
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

-Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through
 Friday.

-A cold front will move across the state Saturday into Sunday
 which will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to Arkansas.

-Severe weather will be possible across parts of Arkansas on
 Saturday.

-Cooler temperatures are expected from Sunday through early next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

WEDNESDAY (TODAY) AND THURSDAY:

A robust, upper lvl ridge will be settled across the Mid-South
region of the CONUS extending eastward over the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies and fair weather across the Natural State. Additionally,
regional sfc high pressure will lead to a continued advection of
southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and
moist airmass across the state. Expect temperatures overall to
remain unseasonably warm for this time of the year averaging about 5
to 10 degrees above normal overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek (Friday). An upper lvl trof is projected to
dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a
cold front across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model
guidance of both the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion with
regard to the occurrence of rain and thunderstorm activity ahead of
and along the placement of the cold front; however, both are not in
agreement on timing of this occurrence. The latest run as of this
forecast discussion paints two different pictures:

1.) The GFS and related ensembles hint at a faster frontal passage
with the leading edge of the rain and thunderstorm activity arriving
into western Arkansas on Saturday morning. The earlier timing is
more representative of a rain-event with limited potential for
embedded strong to a few severe thunderstorms. A morning arrival of
rain and thunderstorms could also limit the destabilization of the
atmosphere which would potentially limit the high-end severe threat
to a degree.

2.) The ECMWF presents a slower and potentially more potent
solution. The model solution delays the arrival of the main line of
strong to severe thunderstorms to until Saturday evening and into
the overnight hours. The later timing would allow for greater
diurnal heating and destabilization of the airmass ahead of the
front potentially leading to a higher-end severe weather threat with
a greater threat of significant, severe thunderstorms.

Over the next couple of days these models and shorter-term model
guidance will continue to be closely analyzed to see which outcome
appears more probable. However, the key takeaway should be that
ingredients will be in place on Saturday into Saturday Night for
severe weather across the Natural State and all hazards will be in
play: damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

Into the day on Sunday, expect precipitation to come to an end
across the eastern portion of the state. A much cooler and drier
(via both the rain-cooled environment and the cooler and drier
airmass behind the cold front) will lower temperatures to near or
slightly below average temperatures for mid-October transitioning
into later October.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc
high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in
a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall
near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October.

At the end of the forecast period on Tuesday a warm front is progged
to lift northward across the Natural State and will be the chance of
a second bout of rainfall, but this rain opportunity does not appear
to have severe weather potential attached to it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds
are expected to go light and variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         56  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       56  81  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    57  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  59  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  88  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      56  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        58  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   59  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      58  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73