256
FXUS64 KLZK 190731
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
231 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

In bringing a close to the work-week, the song remains the same
across the most of the CWA from previous forecasts. In the upper
lvls, a large trof will be present over the Western region of the
CONUS while a persistent ridge will be over the CWA and Arkansas.

At the sfc, high pressure will continue to meander around the
region. Expect a continuation of overall fair and dry conditions
with temperatures that will be in the ballpark of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal compared to climatological normals for mid to late
September.

However, transitioning from the short-term forecast period to the
long-term forecast period or simply put Friday evening into Saturday
a few isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled
out across northwestern and far northern Arkansas near the
Arkansas/Missouri border as a cold front will attempt to make a run
at Arkansas, but will stop north and west of the state, but still be
in close enough proximity to create some lower end POP chances
across northwest and far northern Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper lvl ridge looks to remain over Arkansas throughout the
weekend with the only opportunity at POPs restricted to a low chance
across far northern Arkansas. Across most of the CWA and state of
Arkansas dry conditions will persist. In response, expect
temperatures over the weekend to remain 5 to 10 degrees above
average compared to climatological normals for mid to late
September.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper lvl trof will move over the
Southern Plains region of CONUS and into the Mid-West region of the
CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front will begin slowly pushing through
the state from the west. Expect POP chances to increase from Monday
into Tuesday across the CWA as the cold front progresses eastward
through the state.

On Wednesday, POP chances will increase for the entire CWA and much
of the state of Arkansas as a second upper lvl trof will move over
the region in tandem with a cold front at the sfc. Expect widespread
chances for shower and thunderstorm activity.

From the period of Monday through Wednesday, expect temperatures to
regress back to values that are near average compared to
climatological normals for this time of the year with a series of
cold front moving through the state aiding in cooler air funneling
in behind the FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are to be expected over the majority of the forecast
period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning
across all sites. The only exception will be the possibility of
patchy fog that may drop all sites to MVFR flight category with a
brief period of IFR possible just prior to sunrise and into the
early morning hours on Thursday. However, model confidence continues
to wane toward MVFR flight category. Other than the dropping VSBY,
no other changes to flight category are expect and VFR conditions
will persist after Thursday morning for all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  68  90  71 /   0   0  10  10
Camden AR         94  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       90  69  94  71 /   0  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  93  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     93  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      95  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  90  68  93  71 /   0  10  10  10
Newport AR        88  67  90  71 /   0   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  68  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   93  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         90  67  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      90  67  92  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74