646
FXUS64 KLZK 141707 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across the forecast area
 through the coming workweek, with dry and settled conditions
 prevailing over this period.

-Unsettled weather, including rain and thunderstorm chances appear
 possible across the region by late workweek into the weekend, but
 uncertainties remain between exact timing, QPF, and severe
 weather possibilities.

-Severe weather across Arkansas on Saturday into Saturday remains
 a good possibility. However, models are still working out
 specific detail with respect to hazards and timing, expect those
 to become clear over the next couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The main driver of weather conditions through the workweek into the
weekend will be upper lvl features. First, for the majority of the
workweek (through Thursday), a dominant upper lvl ridge will be
fixated over Arkansas leading to a period of tranquil and
unseasonably warm weather. However, into the late workweek and
weekend, an upper lvl trof and associated cold front will approach
Arkansas which will present a significant chance for precipitation
and opportunity for severe weather.

TUESDAY(TODAY) THROUGH THURSDAY:

Surface high pressure will be settled across the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies across the Natural State. Additionally, this surface feature
will lead to a continued advection of southerly to southeasterly
flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and moist airmass into the state.
Expect temperatures overall to remain unseasonably warm for this
time of the year averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek. An upper lvl trof is going to dig over the
Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a cold front
across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model guidance of both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion with regard to the
occurrence of rain and thunderstorm activity ahead of and along the
placement of the cold front; however, both are not in agreement on
timing of this occurrence. The latest run as of this forecast
discussion paints two different pictures:

First, the GFS and associated ensembles do contain the ingredients
needed for all modes of severe weather across Arkansas on Saturday,
but the wild card is that the GFS shows a strong signal of wanting
to promote morning rain and isolated thunderstorms which would
dampen the environment overall severe-wise if the atmosphere has
been worked over by morning activity and is not able to become re-
primed Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Additionally, the timing
of the system would arrive Saturday morning and this would transpire
into more of a rain-producing event with a few strong to severe
storms.

Second, the ECMWF and associated ensembles do contain the
ingredients needed for all modes of severe weather across Arkansas
on Saturday. Additionally, the ECMWF indicated a solution of much
less to no rain or isolated storms that may weaken or stabilize the
atmosphere ahead of the main line of convection. The model brings
strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas Saturday evening into
Saturday night providing a tad slower solution than the GFS.

Expect on Friday temperatures to remain unseasonably warm by 5 to 10
degrees across Arkansas with fair weather conditions ahead of the
approaching cold front as a return to predominately southerly flow
will commence advecting warm air and moisture into the state.
Saturday and Sunday will be the days in which noted temperatures
will lower due to a combination of rain-cooled air, cloud cover, and
the FROPA as a drier and cooler airmass will funnel in behind the
cold front, especially on Sunday as the cold front begins to
progress away from the state. In upcoming forecast discussions and
packages, specifics will begin to be discussed as the event draws
closer. It does heed mentioning that confidence is high that the
state will experience widespread rainfall, especially when signals
this far out from model guidance show cohesion and confidence.

Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc
high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in
a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall
near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Winds will
be E/NE generally less than 10 kts, but there could be some
occasional gusts to 15 kts this afternoon. Winds will be lighter
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         56  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       57  81  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    58  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  59  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     57  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      57  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  83  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        57  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     56  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   60  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...67