947
FXUS64 KLZK 041303
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
803 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

-Moderate Risk (4 out of 5) for severe storms today and early
 tonight, focused over the northwest two thirds of the state.
 Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
 threats, with a few long-track tornadoes possible.

-An enhanced risk (3 out of 5) exists for the southeast half of
 the area on Saturday.

-Moderate to High Risk for excessive rainfall through Saturday
 night, leading to a This will lead to a dangerous and life-
 threatening situation through Sat night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Added areas fog through late morning for central and northern
sections of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Sfc bndry was situated acrs far southeast AR early this mrng. Temps
were well into the 70s south of the fnt, with mainly 40s and 50s to
the north over much of the FA. Scattered elevated convection has
been ongoing early this mrng acrs central AR and northeast AR. These
storms wl cont to pose a threat of severe hail thru daybreak.

The focus today wl cont to be the threat of severe storms as well as
flash flooding. All modes of severe wx wl again be possible today,
with a large part of the FA now under a Moderate Risk (4 out of 5).
With the ground well saturated in most areas fm the most recent
rainfall, flash flooding wl cont to be an increasing concern.

The persistent southwest steering flow wl cont to bring a series of
SWT`s acrs the FA thru the period. One such feature wl eject out of
southwest U.S. and move acrs the Mid-South later today. This feature
wl interact with an incrsg LLJ, allowing an assocd sfc low to move
into western AR early this aftn. As this occurs, the assocd sfc
bndry to lift northward as a warm fnt.

The main challenge today is how far north the warm fnt make it into
the FA. This wl determine to where severe wx potential wl be the
greatest. Most of the CAMS indc the bndry aligning itself along the
I-30/I-57/Hwy 67/167 corridor later this aftn, as it encounters
southwest mid lvl flow. Atmospheric conds wl quickly destabilize
south of the fnt as sfc temps warm into the 80s. Storms that form in
this region wl have plenty of shear for supercells to form, esp in
the vicinity of the sfc low. Tornadoes are again possible, with a
few of them having the potential to be long-track. Be sure to have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

As the sfc low lifts to the northeast of the FA tonight, the assocd
fntl bndry wl return slowly south as a cold fnt. Additional SWT`s
wl pass acrs the region tngt into Sat mrng. These features wl
interact with the slow moving bndry to produce additional rounds
of convection, primarily over the northwest half of the state.
Currently, rainfall amts tngt into Sat mrng are fcst in the 3 to 6
inch range, which could lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding.

Additional chcs for severe weather wl exist Sat for parts of eastern
and southeast Arkansas as the cold fnt wl move acrs that area.
Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes wl again be possible.
Flash flooding wl also be possible as the focus for excessive
rainfall shifts to this part of the state. Cooler air wl be slowly
advecting into the region later Sat and Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Drier and colder air will be filtering into the state at the start
of the long term period as a cold front moves east of AR. An upper
shortwave will lift NE over NWRN sections early on Sun...with some
lingering precip possible across the area Sun morning. Temps will
remain above freezing for most areas...but some areas across the
higher terrain of the Ozarks could see temps drop into the mid 30s.
This area may see a brief wintry mix Sun morning before the moisture
exits Sun afternoon.

A persistent dry period will then be seen into the middle of next
week as flow aloft becomes NW over the region. Temps will start off
near or below normal for early Apr...but start to warm by the middle
of next week as SRLY SFC flow returns to the region. Some small
chances for rain return to the forecast late in the period as a new
front and upper shortwave move into the state on Thu. However...this
precip looks light and short-lived with more dry and cool air
rushing back into the region late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Ongoing convection over north AR wl cont to lift into southern MO
later this mrng. Fntl bndry over far southeast AR wl be lifting
sloly to the north and northwest as the day progresses. IFR/LIFR
conds wl be common north of the bndry, with conds improving soon
after the bndry passes thru. Additional storms wl refire over
western AR this aftn ahead of an assocd CDFNT that wl working into
the FA. This activity wl cont working sloly to the east thru tngt,
with deteriorating conds returning. Looks like southeast AR may
not see heavier storms until late in the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  59  66  43 /  90  90 100  90
Camden AR         84  67  76  48 /  80  70 100  90
Harrison AR       67  49  53  36 / 100  90 100  90
Hot Springs AR    78  62  71  45 /  90  90 100  90
Little Rock   AR  81  66  71  48 /  90  80 100  90
Monticello AR     87  72  79  53 /  60  50 100 100
Mount Ida AR      76  59  68  43 /  90  90 100  90
Mountain Home AR  68  51  56  38 / 100  90 100  90
Newport AR        80  63  70  45 /  90  90 100 100
Pine Bluff AR     84  68  77  49 /  70  70 100 100
Russellville AR   75  57  65  43 /  90  90 100  90
Searcy AR         80  63  69  45 /  90  80 100 100
Stuttgart AR      83  69  76  49 /  70  70 100 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...44