450
FXUS64 KLZK 302310
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

+ For the forecast as a whole - we will see a reprieve from the
heat here through much of the work week as some cooler air from
the north works its way across the state beginning tomorrow
(Tuesday).

+ Thunderstorm chances today are highest across northern Arkansas
but extend across central and into south Arkansas from late in the
day today during the overnight hours. Some damaging winds are
possible especially across northwest Arkansas this afternoon, but
overall storms are expected to remain below the threshold for
severe storms.

+ It does look like we will heat up again next weekend. It`s too
early to say if that heat will be accompanied by afternoon storms
that prevent the heat from building up or not, but if nothing
else, the cool air aloft will be gone next weekend allowing summer
to resume doing its thing here across the Natural State.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a trough over
the north central plains moving east southeast towards the western
Great Lakes region. There was a non-tropical upper level low
pressure system hanging just off the east coast of Florida, a
series of weak shortwave troughs over the northeastern part of the
USA and a larger upper level ridge over the northern USA Rockies.
Directly over Arkansas water vapor satellite imagery was dotted
with transient or mesoscale features that shouldn`t play a major
role in forcing for subsidence or ascent here over the next 24
hours. Surface observations combined with SPC mesoanalysis show a
subtle boundary in place running nearly due west to east across
the center part of Arkansas from approximately Fort Smith to
Little Rock to West Memphis. This boundary is probably a remnant
of the big outflow boundary that made its way out of southwest
Missouri yesterday before stalling out. The boundary is marked by
some deeper boundary layer moisture rather than something easily
defined by the surface wind field, but it is relevant enough to
serve as a focus for some early afternoon storms. Regional radars
showed scattered storms developing on this boundary from just west
of Little Rock back towards the Fort Smith area.

For the remainder of the day today expect that thunderstorm
activity will continue to develop along the subtle boundary
mentioned above, but expect more activity on the western half of
the line (basically from Little Rock metro area to points west)
due to the influence of the approaching trough aloft. Out ahead of
the bigger trough aloft, SPC mesoscale analysis (run from RAP
data) shows a weak mid-level vortex providing some weak large
scale lift over the northwestern third of Arkansas this afternoon.
The subtle boundary in place over the central part of the state
represents deeper moisture which you would expect to allow storms
to develop when coupled with the peak heating hours of the day.
The weak lift from the northwest combined with the deeper moisture
boundary is what will likely make the western half of the boundary
more active than the eastern half, at least through the daylight
hours. Storms that benefit from both the deeper moisture and the
lift will pose a threat of damaging winds in addition to the
general threat of all summertime thunderstorms which is heavy
rainfall and lightning. There`s not enough wind shear for a
significant threat to organize today, but could see the need to
issue at least a few thunderstorm warnings today for 60+ mph wind
gusts.

After sunset, the upper level trough moving in general towards the
western Great Lakes region will send a weak cold front south
across Arkansas. As this front moves south across the state,
anywhere along the front, we could see scattered thunderstorms
develop. The only reason the entire front will NOT light up with
thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours is because the front
is moving through well after the peak heating hours of the day.
The front itself is fairly weak, this wouldn`t matter much if it
moved through during the afternoon hours, because even weak lift
would cause storms to develop along the entire front. However
overnight, the lift will have to work against the nocturnal
inversion, thereby reducing the number of storms that are able to
develop as the front moves across the state. As a result, despite
a cold front moving across Arkansas in late June/early July, the
chance of rain will remain in the 40-50 percent chance range.

What the front will do is bring some notably cooler air over the
state. With colder air aloft, that actually limits how warm the
atmosphere can get, even under full sun, and even in the summer
here in Arkansas. That cooler air aloft will cap high temperatures
tomorrow in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. We will warm up
gradually each day throughout the week ahead, but it will take
some time for the summer sun to modify the environment to build
the heat back up over the state. By Friday, high temperatures will
once again climb back into the mid 90s for most locations, but it
looks like it will take until this upcoming weekend for heat index
values to once again approach 105 degrees which does offer us
several days of reprieve from the excessive heat and associated
heat advisories that we saw last week. Throughout the remainder of
the work week, we may see an isolated storm or two during the peak
heating hours of the day, but for the most part, the week is
expected to remain dry after today and tonight.

By the upcoming weekend the high summer sun angle and long days
will have finally won the battle for comfort and daily high
temperatures will be back in the upper 90s for much of the state.
Heat index values this upcoming weekend once again approach or
exceed 105 degrees, however with the increased heat and humidity
comes an increased chance for airmass thunderstorms to develop
during the peak heating hours of the day. Whether we will need a
heat advisory next weekend really boils down to how active the
afternoons get each day with peak heating thunderstorm activity.
As we get closer to the weekend if it looks like the thunderstorm
activity will be limited, we`ll need a heat advisory. More
expected storms means more clouds and a better chance that rain
cooled air interrupts the heat. We`ll just have to wait and see
this far out as airmass thunderstorms are simply not handled well
by any forecast model this far out.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Main impacts to aviation will be scattered thunderstorms forming
along an ourflow boundary over central into western Arkansas now.
These storms will move through HOT/LIT/ADF/PBF all within the next
1-3 hours as this boundary progresses to the SE. Activity in OK
may keep more activity overnight if it can develop enough for the
southern TAF sites, but still enough uncertainty that has not been
added to the TAFs. Once these storms move to the east overnight
VFR conditions can be expected with a northern wind on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  88  69  90 /  40  20   0  10
Camden AR         74  92  73  94 /  30  40  10  20
Harrison AR       69  86  65  87 /  40  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    73  91  72  93 /  40  30  10  30
Little Rock   AR  74  90  73  92 /  40  30   0  20
Monticello AR     75  91  73  93 /  30  40  10  20
Mount Ida AR      72  91  71  92 /  50  40  10  30
Mountain Home AR  70  87  65  88 /  40  10   0  10
Newport AR        73  89  70  90 /  40  30   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     74  90  72  92 /  40  40  10  20
Russellville AR   73  90  70  92 /  50  20   0  20
Searcy AR         73  89  70  91 /  40  30   0  10
Stuttgart AR      75  88  73  91 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BARHAM