211
FXUS64 KLZK 101058
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
558 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Surface high pressure ridge axis was still situated over the Natural
State early this morning. Meanwhile, upper lvl ridging to our west
and a trof over the northeastern U.S. conts to provide a NWly flow
aloft over the Mid-South.

Once again this mrng, another weak upper impulse was dropping to the
southeast to our west and northwest. Elevated convection was noted
with this feature, but expect the activity to weaken later this mrng
before reaching western AR. A similar scenario is expected tngt as
another SWT drops into OK. Sctd convection wl accompany this
feature with most of the activity again expected to stay to our west.

Temps will continue to slowly moderate in the days ahead as the
aforementioned surface ridge begins to shift to the east, allowing
winds to veer to the south and southeast. Highs today and Friday
will range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Nighttime lows in the
50s will be common.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

A continuation of dry conditions will be the hallmark of the long-
term forecast period. In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will
make way to upper lvl ridging later that will be present through the
remainder of the period assisting in keeping overall weather
conditions dry.

At the sfc, a region of high pressure will be situated over the
Southeastern region of the CONUS to begin the weekend. A dry cold
front will approach the state and begin moving across the state from
northwest to southeast during the day on Sunday. A region of sfc
Canadian high pressure will move in behind the FROPA and bring a
much cooler and drier airmass to Arkansas.

Temperatures over the long-term forecast period will be a roller
coaster ride. During the weekend, temperatures with respect to both
low and high temperatures will be in the vicinity of 10+ degrees
above average compared to climatological normals for mid-October.
Max temperatures across the state may challenge record daily high
temperatures over the weekend, specifically at Little Rock (Adams
Field/Clinton National Airport)... On Saturday, the record max daily
high temperature is 93 degrees set back in 2015. On Sunday the
record max daily high temperature is 94 degrees set back in 1963.
The current forecast will put these records in jeopardy of being at
least tied and possibly eclipsed at Little Rock. The likelihood of
at least a location or two matching a record or setting a new record
is well within the realm of reason.

Into next week, a cooler and drier airmass will bring cooler and in
some circles cold temperatures to the Natural State. Temperatures
will become near average on Monday and then become below average by
around 5 degrees by mid-week. Wednesday morning low temperatures
look to bring widespread upper 30s to northern Arkansas and the
higher elevations across the state where other locations statewide
will see low temperatures fall into the 40s bringing a much more
October-feel to the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Persistent sfc ridge over the region will result in VFR conditions
thru the PD. Some high clouds may stream into western AR at times.
Look for light winds either fm the northeast or southeast, with the
ridge axis aligned over the FA.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...44