073
FXUS64 KLZK 191130
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Most of the CWA remains quiet early this Sat morning...with some
increased clouds and SRLY SFC winds. Regional radar imagery shows
strong to SVR convection across far NWRN AR...along/ahead of the SFC
cold front that has become nearly stationary across NERN OK into far
SWRN MO. Latest near-term high-res guidance shows the  majority of
this convection remaining just NW of the CWA into the morning
hrs...though some TSRA may push just far enough east to enter the
far NWRN sections of the CWA early this morning. Then by around or
just after sunrise...convection may push a bit further east from OK
into west central to NRN AR. The convection this morning will have
the ability to become strong/SVR given the small window of limited
CIN with maximized instability/SHR. Damaging winds...large
hail...and even a brief tornado threat will exist as a result.

By late this morning into the early afternoon hrs...chances for
intense convection will decrease as the front or convection induced
cold pool drop south...and upper forcing shifts back to the NW. Some
scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA will still be possible...but best
chances shift back to the NW by the afternoon hrs.
However...developing SFC low to the west will cause a warm front to
lift back north this evening and overnight...with more scattered and
organized convection developing across WRN/NWRN sections. Limited
CIN/increased instability/SHR overlap will be seen in this
region...with some strong to SVR TSRA possible. Damaging winds and
large hail will be primary threats...but a tornado or two will still
be possible overnight across WRN/NWRN AR.

By Sun...an upper level shortwave and SFC low to the west will lift
NE into MO...with a trailing cold front moving ENE into AR by Sun
afternoon. A line of convection will develop over ERN OK...lifting
EWD into AR. All modes of SVR wx will be possible with this activity
Sun afternoon/evening given ample instability...SHR...and limited
CAP. Given the most upper level support will be passing just north
of AR...best potential for SVR convection will be across the NRN
half of the state Sun afternoon/evening. This activity will push ENE
Sun night...with more stable/cooler air arriving by the end of the
short term period.

Beyond the SVR potential...there remains an increased threat for
heavy rainfall and resulting flash/river flooding. The threat for
heaviest rainfall has continued to push to the NW...and areas across
the far NWRN counties could still see rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches...with much less to the SE. However...any slight adjustment
in the location of the stalled SFC front...or if convection ends up
focusing further SE along residual outflow boundaries...this could
shift the heavy rain axis back east. As a result...will likely keep
the Flood Watch in place for current spatial extent. This heavy rain
threat will end sometime Sun evening/night as the activity moves
east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A cold front should be in the process of sweeping across the state
on Monday. Precipitation should be wrapping up over Cntrl and SE
sections of AR during the morning hours. Surface high pressure will
then quickly build into the state on Monday afternoon bringing drier
weather conditions to the region through Tuesday.

Heading into mid/late week, a series of upper level disturbances is
expected to traverse SWrly background flow triggering a couple to a
few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through
Friday across nearly all of AR. While QPF amounts have a fair amount
of uncertainty this far out, guidance is trending towards widespread
1-3" of rainfall over a 3 day period. At this time, the daily
threats for severe weather remains uncertain but should be monitored
over the coming days.

Regarding temperatures, lows should start out with the coolest
readings felt during the long term; lows in the 50s, thereafter
increasing a couple degrees each successive morning through Friday.
High temperatures during the period should be in the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas between KHRO and KBPK will have the greatest coverage of
SHRA/TSRA during this forecast period. MVFR ceilings will prevail
late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  65  80  56 /  40  60  50  90
Camden AR         85  66  82  58 /  10  10  70  90
Harrison AR       68  60  73  50 /  90  90  90  60
Hot Springs AR    81  65  80  54 /  20  40  80  80
Little Rock   AR  81  67  82  58 /  10  30  60  90
Monticello AR     85  68  84  64 /   0  10  40  80
Mount Ida AR      80  65  79  53 /  30  60  90  70
Mountain Home AR  71  61  76  51 /  90  90  80  70
Newport AR        81  67  82  59 /  30  40  30  90
Pine Bluff AR     84  67  83  61 /   0  10  50  90
Russellville AR   78  64  80  53 /  50  70  80  70
Searcy AR         81  65  82  57 /  20  30  50  90
Stuttgart AR      83  68  83  61 /   0  10  30  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ004>006-014-015-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99