132
FXUS64 KLZK 092344 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
544 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Primary sfc low was centered over southwest NE this aftn, with an
assocd occluded front extending to the east and south just to the
west of AR. Another sfc low was noted over west-central AR, with a
CDFNT aligned to the south and an assocd warm fnt situated across
the southern part of the FA.

The main storm system will cont to move to the northeast, making its
way into the Great Lakes region late Sun. This wl allow the CDFNT
to work slowly to the east, eventually moving pushing out of the FA
by Sun evening. Rain chcs will diminish behind the FROPA as drier
air starts to advect into the region. Expect patchy fog to form late
tngt over the valley areas of western AR, esp where clouds thin out.

High pressure will settle into the Mid-South by Monday, resulting is
much drier conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

An upper ridge and surface high pressure will shift eastward across
central portions of the U.S. through Tuesday night.By the middle of
next week, an upper trough will move across the region. Cloud cover
will increase late Tuesday night and rain chances will return to the
state Wednesday as a cold front sweeps across the state. Rain
chances look to be greatest across northern portions of the state
Wednesday afternoon, though the latest model runs have been backing
off on coverage and probability across the state, compared to
previous runs. Rainfall totals during this period look to remain
less than one-tenth of an inch.

Rain cuts off late Wednesday night, as upper ridging and surface
high pressure begin building across the region. High pressure and
rain free conditions are forecast Thursday through the end of the
week.

High temperatures will not change much through the period, remaining
in the 60s/70s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s/50s through the
period, with the lowest temperatures expected post-cold front (Wed
night and Thurs night), in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

MVFR to IFR condns were ongoing over much of the FA as of the
10/00Z TAFs. A weak wrmfrnt was noted moving Nwrd over Srn AR, and
an occluded frnt was observed acrs far Wrn AR, defined by a clear
break in low-lvl clouds to the west. Thru the PD, expect primarily
IFR or less condns, including CIGs and VISBYs to persist w/ Erly
to S/Erly winds, particularly invof the Nwrd moving wrmfrnt,
before it eventually gets overtaken by the occluded frnt moving
Ewrd. An additional round of isoltd precip is expected to develop
along the advancing occluded frnt, mostly impacting Cntrl to Srn
terminals, fm b/w 10/10Z to 10/18Z. In the wake of this frnt,
clearing skies and improving condns w/ light Wrly winds should
prevail fm W to E later in the PD Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  76  48  70 /  50  10   0   0
Camden AR         64  75  52  75 /  40  20   0   0
Harrison AR       47  69  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    58  76  49  73 /  30  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  63  76  52  73 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     66  77  56  74 /  70  40  10   0
Mount Ida AR      53  76  46  73 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  50  71  44  67 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        62  73  48  69 /  60  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  76  52  73 /  60  30  10   0
Russellville AR   54  73  47  72 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         62  75  48  71 /  60  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  74  52  71 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...72