695
FXUS64 KLZK 120707
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
207 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Scattered SHRA continues to wrap around the north side of the upper
low...which was centered just SE of AR early this Mon morning.
Chances for SHRA and isolated TSRA will remain fairly high through
this Mon afternoon into this evening before this upper low begins to
exit to the east for Tue. Chances for rainfall will then decrease
from west to east Mon night through Tue.

Temps will remain in the 60s and 70s for highs this Mon
afternoon...but as the precip exits to the east...upper level
ridging will increase over the region. As this happens...temps will
start to warm starting Tue...with highs in the 80s. Upper ridging
will increase further for Wed...along with SRLY SFC flow increasing.
Temps will increase further for Wed as a result...with 80s to around
90 possible Wed afternoon. The SRLY SFC flow will also increase low
level moisture...allowing for heat index values to warm above 90 for
many areas Wed afternoon.

By Thu...flow aloft will transition to the SW over the region as the
upper ridging shifts east. This SW flow aloft will set up another
active pattern across the region for later in the week as a cold
front approaches from the NW. POPs will increase as a result with
this front moving into the region...and with weak upper waves
passing over this front. This will keep chances for SHRA/TSRA in the
forecast off and on through the rest of the forecast. While POPs
increase...temps will gradually decrease with the increased precip
potential and resulting cloud cover. While a few TSRA may become
strong...the overall threat for seeing organized SVR Wx is
uncertain at this time. There may also be some locally heavy
rainfall with the front stalling over some portion of the region.
However...the front doesn`t look like it will stall very long...and
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will be
seen across the area as an upper level low moves from southern LA
to western TN through the period. This will provide variable wind
conditions as well as frequent periods of lowered cigs and reduced
vsby at times. Chances for TS will be seen through the period,
with the most widespread activity expected during the
afternoon/evening hours Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  59  81  63 /  90  30  10   0
Camden AR         74  58  87  64 /  50  30   0   0
Harrison AR       71  56  81  61 /  70  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  58  86  64 /  70  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  73  60  84  66 /  70  20   0   0
Monticello AR     76  60  86  67 /  60  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      76  57  87  64 /  60  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  71  57  80  61 /  80  30  10   0
Newport AR        73  62  80  65 /  90  30  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  60  85  66 /  60  30   0   0
Russellville AR   75  59  86  64 /  70  20   0   0
Searcy AR         74  59  83  64 /  80  30  10   0
Stuttgart AR      73  62  83  67 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...67