688
FXUS64 KLZK 261918
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Latest mesoanalysis indicated an MCV moving N/E acrs Ern OK, w/ a
noteworthy instability gradient oriented fm W-E acrs Cntrl AR.
Satellite imgry was also indicative of this instability gradient,
where acrs Srn AR, Erly oriented cloud streaks could be discerned,
while over Nrn to NErn AR, more stable NErly stratus and embedded
cloud streaks were evident, alongside sfc temps in the upper 50s to
low to mid 60s.

Thru the remainder of the day today, an increase in covg of
thunderstorms is expected on the S/Ern periphery of the
aforementioned MCV, mainly over S/Ern OK and the greater ARKLATEX
region. A favorable regime of instability and enhanced vorticity
invof the MCV wl support at least an isolated severe weather threat
into portions of Wrn to S/Wrn AR b/w 00Z to 02Z later this evng. The
severe weather threat should quickly taper down beyond 02-04Z
though, as instability is progged to quickly dissipate.

On Sun, there wl lkly be some residual precip activity fm the night
before working its way Ewrd beyond sunrise, though covg of precip
should taper down thru the day. The S/Wrn periphery of Upper Midwest
sfc high pressure wl initially expand over much of the FA, resulting
in a weak back door cdfrnt passage, though this wl be short-lived.
Thru the day, sfc high pressure wl shift Ewrd, and Srly winds
should resume acrs the region.

Thru the remainder of Sun and into Mon, amplifying H500 ridging over
the Cntrl US wl promote drier and warmer condns, w/ temps set to
climb to the mid to upper 80s at most sites on Mon. Unsettled
weather looks to return heading into the long term PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

To begin the period, an upper level trough is expected across the
western U.S. with surface high pressure centered just east of the
state. This will allow southerly flow at the surface to usher in
warm moist air ahead of the next system. Overall, an active long-
term pattern is expected.

As the trough continue to push towards the east this will track a
surface just to the northeast of the state Tuesday into Wednesday
with a stalled frontal boundary situated across the northern half of
the state. This will likely set up a stormy and wet pattern for at
least northern and central locations Tuesday through Thursday. This
pattern has the potential to bring severe weather chances, mainly on
Tuesday and into Wednesday...in addition to an increase in flash
flooding due to the heavy rainfall potential.

As mentioned above, an active weather pattern is expected early to
the middle part of next week. Although it is too early to mention
specifics, Arkansans should pay attention to the forecast for this
upcoming week as severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible.
However, changes and updates to the forecast will be likely as we
get closer to the event.

Calmer and drier conditions are expected to return to the state
Friday promoting calmer and drier conditions.

Temperatures are expected to above average through the period with
high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s through much of the
period. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the
lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Broad cirrus shield was noted on recent vis/IR sat imgry fm a
convective cluster mvg thru cntrl OK, and was extending into the
Wrn half of AR, bringing mostly BKN to OVC mid-lvl cloud cover to
area terminals. Mid lvl cloud covg wl cont to incrs thru the aftn
w/ the movement of this cirrus shield. Winds wl stay light thru
the remainder of Sat, w/ E/NErlies at most terminals. Expect
convective activity to move fm W to E acrs Wrn to Cntrl AR beyond
00Z Sat night, w/ deteriorating CIGs to MVFR and eventually IFR
lvls accompanying precip, and intermittent reduced VISBYs. MVFR to
IFR condns should persist in the wake of precip activity thru Sun
mrng.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  75  63  88 /  50  40   0   0
Camden AR         64  86  65  88 /  50  10   0   0
Harrison AR       56  78  62  82 /  50  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    62  84  64  86 /  60  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  63  84  66  88 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     66  88  68  89 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      62  85  65  86 /  70  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  56  72  61  84 /  50  40   0   0
Newport AR        59  77  63  87 /  40  40   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     64  85  67  89 /  40  10   0   0
Russellville AR   61  83  65  86 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         59  80  64  88 /  40  30   0   0
Stuttgart AR      63  82  68  87 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...72