433
FXUS64 KLZK 070838
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 236 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

To begin the period, an upper level low is located across the Four
Corners region and will continue to push off towards the northeast.
This will bring a surface low pressure system across the Central
Plains and into the Great Lakes region. This low pressure system is
expected to drag a cold front across the state late in the period.
This will increase PoPs as we head into late Friday and into the
weekend. More beneficial rain is expected across the state.

Before the main system gets here, some light to moderate showers
and storms are currently across eastern and central portions of
the CWA...these showers and thunderstorms will be short lived and
will likely dissipate around sunrise. Severe weather is not
expected at this time. Dry conditions will likely prevail through
late Friday before the system, mention above, affects the state.

Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average
through the period. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to
lower 70s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

An upper level closed low and SFC low will be lifting NE across the
Plains at the start of the long term period...with a trailing front
moving east across AR Sat into Sun. Convection will become likely
along this front into Sat night...with POPs decreasing by Sun
afternoon and night as this boundary moves just SE of AR.

Drier weather will then be seen Mon into Tue behind this front and
as upper level riding moves across the state. This dry period will
end by the end of the forecast however as a new storm system moves
towards the region. A new upper shortwave will move east towards AR
on Wed...with another front moving east across the state. More
widespread convection is forecast as this happens.

While some additional heavy rainfall will be possible with both
storm systems through the long term period...both fronts will be
more progressive in nature instead of stalling over the area. As a
result...widespread heavy rainfall is not expected at this time.
Even so...there will still be some potential for isolated flash
flooding.

As for the SVR Wx threat...most of the upper level energy will be
passing north of AR this weekend...with the threat for SVR WX being
somewhat limited. However...there may be enough instability/SHR on
Sat ahead of the front to create a few strong to SVR TSRA. The SVR
threat is a bit uncertain late in the forecast...but there may again
be some potential for a few strong/SVR TSRA during the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Mostly MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected through the period. Scattered
SHRA will be possible as well and will mainly pop up around
southern and eastern AR. Winds are expected to be out of the NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  50  66  52 /   0   0  10  40
Camden AR         73  57  72  61 /  10  10  40  70
Harrison AR       64  46  61  50 /   0   0  10  60
Hot Springs AR    70  55  68  57 /  10  10  30  80
Little Rock   AR  71  56  70  59 /  10  10  30  60
Monticello AR     73  60  75  64 /  20  10  40  60
Mount Ida AR      71  52  68  55 /   0  10  40  80
Mountain Home AR  65  47  63  50 /   0   0  10  50
Newport AR        64  52  67  53 /  10   0   0  40
Pine Bluff AR     69  56  71  60 /  10  10  30  70
Russellville AR   70  55  68  55 /   0   0  20  70
Searcy AR         70  53  68  55 /  10   0  10  50
Stuttgart AR      66  55  69  59 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...73