700
FXUS64 KLZK 151034
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
534 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across the forecast area
 through the remainder of the workweek, with dry and settled
 conditions prevailing over this period.

-Unsettled weather, including rain and thunderstorm chances appear possible
 across the region by late workweek transitioning to better
 chances over Saturday into early Sunday, but uncertainties remain
 between exact timing, QPF, and severe weather possibilities.

-Severe weather across Arkansas on Saturday into Saturday night
 remains a good possibility. However, models are still working out
 specific detail with respect to possible severe weather hazards
 (via storm mode) and timing, expect those to become clear over
 the next couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

WEDNESDAY (TODAY) AND THURSDAY:

A robust, upper lvl ridge will be settled across the Mid-South
region of the CONUS extending eastward over the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies and fair weather across the Natural State. Additionally,
regional sfc high pressure will lead to a continued advection of
southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and
moist airmass across the state. Expect temperatures overall to
remain unseasonably warm for this time of the year averaging about 5
to 10 degrees above normal overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek (Friday). An upper lvl trof is projected to
dig over the Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a
cold front across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model
guidance of both the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion with
regard to the occurrence of rain and thunderstorm activity ahead of
and along the placement of the cold front; however, both are not in
agreement on timing of this occurrence. The latest run as of this
forecast discussion paints two different pictures:

1.) The GFS and related ensembles hint at a faster frontal passage
with the leading edge of the rain and thunderstorm activity arriving
into western Arkansas on Saturday morning. The earlier timing is
more representative of a rain-event with limited potential for
embedded strong to a few severe thunderstorms. A morning arrival of
rain and thunderstorms could also limit the destabilization of the
atmosphere which would potentially limit the high-end severe threat
to a degree.

2.) The ECMWF presents a slower and potentially more potent
solution. The model solution delays the arrival of the main line of
strong to severe thunderstorms to until Saturday evening and into
the overnight hours. The later timing would allow for greater
diurnal heating and destabilization of the airmass ahead of the
front potentially leading to a higher-end severe weather threat with
a greater threat of significant, severe thunderstorms.

Over the next couple of days these models and shorter-term model
guidance will continue to be closely analyzed to see which outcome
appears more probable. However, the key takeaway should be that
ingredients will be in place on Saturday into Saturday Night for
severe weather across the Natural State and all hazards will be in
play: damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be
ruled out.

Into the day on Sunday, expect precipitation to come to an end
across the eastern portion of the state. A much cooler and drier
(via both the rain-cooled environment and the cooler and drier
airmass behind the cold front) will lower temperatures to near or
slightly below average temperatures for mid-October transitioning
into later October.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc
high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in
a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall
near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October.

At the end of the forecast period on Tuesday a warm front is progged
to lift northward across the Natural State and will be the chance of
a second bout of rainfall, but this rain opportunity does not appear
to have severe weather potential attached to it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Expect VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period
from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning across all
terminals. Upper level ridging and regional surface high pressure
will keep weather conditions over the period fair and dry. Surface
winds will gust in excess of 20 knots across the central and
southern sites of KLIT, KPBF, KLLQ, KHOT, and KADF from later
Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening before the gusting
conditions will subside at the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  56  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    84  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  83  58  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     86  58  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      85  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        86  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     84  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         85  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      84  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74