969
FXUS64 KLZK 031138
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Some very spotty pockets of rain were noted over WRN sections early
this Thu morning...activity due to a weak upper wave passing over
this region of the state. There will remain some potential for this
very spotty rain early this morning as the upper wave moves east
over the state.

SFC high pressure over NRN section of AR early this morning will
slide slowly east into this afternoon...with dewpts increasing back
into the 70s for many areas. However...some weak energy aloft will
move over WRN sections again this Thu afternoon...with some low end
POPs noted as a result. This precip and cloud cover will keep temps
from warming too far this afternoon...but will still temps a few deg
warmer than seen on Wed.

The slow warming trend and moisture increase will continue for Fri
as well..with some isolated/widely scattered convection for WRN
sections again Fri afternoon. Temps/dewpts will combine to see heat
index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 today and Fri...but
most areas should remain below Heat Adv criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Bimodal upper ridging will be in place across the Srn CONUS to begin
the period. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will
be tracking Ewrd across the upper Mid-West, between maxima`s in the
ridge. By Sunday into Monday, the aforementioned trough will slide
Ewrd with NW flow developing across the nations mid-section in its
wake. Wrn portion of the ridge will retrograde into the Four Corners
region and amplify. This will increase the NWrly component of H500
flow through mid-week.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. With NW flow setting up
over the region next week, this will allow upper level systems to
track across the state. Each passing system will introduce increased
PoP chances. While the current threat for severe weather looks low,
we will have to monitor for the potential of MCS activity,
especially on Wednesday. If this were to occur, damaging winds could
become an increasing concern.

Temperatures through the period will largely be in the 90s, with a
slight cool down anticipated by next week in relation to increased
PoP chances and increased cloud cover. Even with temperatures
cooling down a bit, this will be offset by increasing low level
moisture. Combining the expected temperatures and anticipated
humidity together, apparent temperatures should climb above 100
degrees Monday through Wednesday, possibly exceeding 105 degrees in
some locations. Heat headlines may be needed to account for areas
reaching or exceeding 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Recent radar trends across SW half of state shows substantial
uptick in coverage of SHRA, therefore adjusted terminal forecasts
across SW half of AR accordingly. VFR conds were ongoing at all
sites except at KBPK where +FG has set in. Today, VFR conds
should prevail at all locations with on/off SHRA/isolated TSRA
over SW half of AR. Could be some temporary MVFR CIGs within
heavier precipitation bands. No SIG weather expected at KHRO and
KBPK beyond this morning. Winds today will be light and variable
at about 5 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         91  72  94  72 /  20  10  20   0
Harrison AR       89  68  88  69 /   0   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    92  73  92  72 /  20   0  20   0
Little Rock   AR  92  74  93  74 /  10   0  10   0
Monticello AR     91  73  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      89  71  91  71 /  20  10  30   0
Mountain Home AR  90  69  90  69 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        92  73  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  92  72 /  20   0  10   0
Russellville AR   92  72  92  72 /  10   0  20   0
Searcy AR         92  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  74  92  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70