Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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994 FXUS64 KLZK 061114 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Well above-normal temps wl remain the main talking point for the short term fcst, as we are set for another day of temps in the 90s at most locations around the region. Some locations, particularly around the Little Rock metro area could see new daily record high temps set this aftn, w/ temps in the mid 90s possible. Based on persistence and pre-frntl condns, have gone a few degrees above blended base guidance for highs around the state this aftn. Thru the day today, a frnt wl be moving thru the Cntrl Plains, and wl be nearing N/Wrn AR near 00Z this evng. Thru the night and into Mon mrng, the frnt should move thru the FA, w/ Nrly winds ushering in much drier and cooler air. Rain remains unlkly, w/ no precip expected whatsoever. This frnt should set temp trends back to near-normal values heading into the new work week and the long term fcst PD. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Cooler, but near normal temperatures will be seen for the early part of the week. Sfc ridging to the north will eventually drift farther to the east while H500 ridging across the SW US will slowly expand northeastward. This pattern will provide an extended period of no rainfall across the state and temperatures will gradually increase with time. Making things worse will be the dry air in place at the sfc for much of next week. With the sfc high to the N/NE of the state, flow will remain out of the east for much of the period and dewpoints will remain generally below 50 F through the period. With the dry air in place, will see fairly substantial diurnal temperature range each day (30 degrees or more). Needless to say, this combination of factors will only worsen ongoing drought conditions and wildfire danger across the state. Winds will remain fairly tame, but many areas will see min RH values dip below 30 percent each day through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR condns are expected thru the new TAF PD. Some patchy fog wl persist acrs the Cntrl portion of the FA thru the next few hrs after 06/12Z. Otherwise, breezy Nrly winds wl ensue acrs the region as a cdfrnt moves thru the FA this aftn. Sctd CU wl form in advance of the frnt. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 54 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 92 63 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 88 50 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 93 63 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 94 62 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 93 64 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 92 59 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 88 51 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 90 56 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 92 62 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 95 58 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 92 57 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 92 62 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...72