494
FXUS64 KLZK 072350 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
550 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A stalled front is currently located across southern Arkansas. This
front will begin to move north through the evening and overnight
hours. Some patchy-dense fog across portions of the state
overnight will be possible, lingering into Saturday morning.
Additionally, some light PoPs will be possible through tonight
ahead of the front.

The big question in regards to the forecast right now is how far the
warm front will make it into Arkansas Saturday afternoon before the
cold front arrives. This will have impacts on the temperature
forecast. My current thinking follows ensemble plumes and NAM
guidance with well-above average temperatures across the south,
with central Arkansas making it into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Northern Arkansas will likely remain the coldest Saturday with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Average to below-average
temperatures are expected Sunday behind the cold front.

As mentioned above, quite the contrast in temperatures are expected
Saturday compared to Sunday. Saturday afternoon highs are expected
to range from the upper 50s (across the north) to the lower 80s
(across the south). By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures are
expected to drop into the upper 30s to lower 50s across the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The southern extent of the sfc ridge centered north of the state
will spread south across the area. Much of Arkansas will find itself
dealing with colder temperatures, but nothing too unexpected for
early to mid-February. Through late next week there will be a series
of H500 disturbances that pass through the area with a more notable
shortwave that is expected to swing through Wed-Thu. At the sfc, the
strong cold front will stall to south of the state and more than one
area of low pressure will move along it from Tue-Thu. These features
will help provide occasional precip to the state and surrounding
areas.

The orientation of the H500 flow being out of the SW and with cold
air in place at the sfc, there is some concern for winter weather
between Mon-Thu across AR. With sfc ridging focused just to the
north, persistent low level easterly flow will be in place for next
week. This doesn`t bode well for much in the way of warming
temperatures, especially with widespread cloud cover.

Northern AR remains more favorable in terms of seeing winter weather
as the cold air will be more sufficient. the first round is expected
Mon night into Tuesday and may pose more of a FZRA threat focused
over higher terrain areas of northern AR. Later in the week when the
stronger H500 shortwave wings through there may be slightly more
depth of cold air which may facilitate more of a snow/wintry mix
threat. During this timeframe the cold air may extend farther south
as well which could expand the winter weather threat along with it.

Any changes in temperature profiles will drastically impact the
dominant precip type and associated impacts. Elsewhere, away from
the winter weather threat, several rounds of rain are expected and
some locally heavy amounts may be seen. Main focus for this threat
would be across the southeast half of the state. Portions of the
Lower White River and Ouachita River basins could be impacted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

MVFR CIGs were noted acrs the FA, w/ recent VIS sat imgry
depicting a broad field of stratus over the region, and a
lingering stationary sfc frnt last analyzed over the AR/LA border.
Thru the new TAF PD, this frnt is set to move Nwrd as a wrmfrnt,
w/ deteriorating condns expected invof the frnt, including IFR
CIGs and reduced VISBYs, primarily thru the late overnight PD and
into early Sat aftn. Additionally, LLWS wl be prevalent acrs area
terminals thru the overnight PD and into early Sat aftn. Expect
gusty S/Wrly winds to prevail over the FA as the frnt moves Nwrd
Sat, w/ a N/Wrly wshft invof another cdfrnt moving into NWrn AR
late in the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     41  64  35  41 /  20  10  10  20
Camden AR         56  79  46  51 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       41  62  32  39 /  10  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    48  72  41  45 /  10  10  20  40
Little Rock   AR  49  70  41  43 /  10  10  20  30
Monticello AR     59  79  48  50 /   0   0  20  20
Mount Ida AR      49  73  41  46 /  10  10  10  40
Mountain Home AR  40  63  33  40 /  20  10   0  20
Newport AR        44  68  36  40 /  20  20  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     53  76  43  46 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   44  69  38  43 /  10  10  10  30
Searcy AR         44  71  37  42 /  20  10  10  30
Stuttgart AR      51  71  41  43 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72