486
FXUS64 KLZK 241030 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
530 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A new front will drop south through the state starting this
morning...eventually slowing over SWRN sections by this Sun
afternoon and evening. Initially...this front will slow/stall over
SWRN sections and just SW of AR by Mon morning...with precip
starting to overspread NWRN/WRN sections of the state Mon morning
along/north of this front. Have bumped POPs across the NWRN half of
the CWA to start earlier on Mon as this activity looks to develop
sooner as an upper wave drops SE into this portion of the state.

Before the precip moves in on Mon...another hot and dry day is
expected this Sun...even with the front dropping south. Highs will
be near or just above normal for central to SRN sections in the
upper 80s to mid 90s...but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid
to upper 80s. Highs on Mon will range from the upper 60s to upper
70s over NRN/NWRN sections where rain starts earlier...to the 80s to
low 90s further south where rain will hold off a bit longer.

By Mon night into Tue...this front will drop further S/SW...around
the same time as a new and a bit stronger upper disturbance passes
SE in the NW flow aloft. This will keep precip chances up for much
of the CWA into Tue afternoon...though NERN sections may remain a
bit drier. Scattered/widespread SHRA and some TSRA will be possible
with this activity Mon morning through Tue afternoon...then chances
for convection decrease Tue afternoon evening as the front drops
further south...and the upper wave moves out of the area.

Drier conditions will be seen for Wed as SFC high pressure starts
settling across the region. Decreasing cloud cover and the drier air
will allow temps to warm on Wed over Tue rain cooled temps. Highs on
Tue will be mainly in the 70s for most areas...though some upper 60s
could be seen over WRN sections where rainfall looks to persist much
of the day. Further NE...highs may warm into the 80s. By Wed
morning...lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the
high pressure settling into the region...and drier air moving in.
Wouldn`t be too surprised to see a couple upper 40s for lows Wed
morning where winds become light and cloud cover dissipates.

A new upper disturbance will move over the region starting Wed night
into Thu in the NW flow aloft...with rain chances returning to the
forecast. Additional disturbances look to pass over the region into
the upcoming weekend...keeping an active pattern in place. This may
allow for continued chances for rounds of convection later this
week...which could result in several inches of rainfall. Depending
on how many waves pass overhead...will need to monitor the potential
for heavy rainfall by late in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A cold front is moving through the state this Sun...which will
bring persistent NRLY winds to the area. Sustained winds should
remain below 10 kts for most locations. Chances for rainfall
should remain low into this evening...but some rain may develop
late in the TAF period from the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  61  77  61 /   0   0  20  40
Camden AR         95  65  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       86  61  71  58 /   0  20  40  50
Hot Springs AR    95  66  87  64 /   0  10  20  30
Little Rock   AR  92  66  83  64 /   0   0  20  30
Monticello AR     94  66  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      94  66  85  63 /   0  10  20  40
Mountain Home AR  87  61  74  59 /   0  10  30  40
Newport AR        88  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     94  64  88  64 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   95  67  79  64 /   0  20  30  50
Searcy AR         91  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  30
Stuttgart AR      92  64  84  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62