898
FXUS64 KLZK 191110 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
510 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The weak disturbance embedded in the mid-level flow will continue
to track east away from the area this morning. Light snow/
flurries may continue for a few more hours before dry conditions
return areawide. As clouds clear and dry air filters in,
temperatures will efficiently fall through daybreak. Highs will
struggle to climb into the 30s F across much of the state today.

For Monday, a new H500 trough will approach from the NW. This will
help usher in additional cold air as a robust area of surface
ridging will be making its way down the Plains toward Arkansas.
This setup will lead to largely dry conditions and very cold air.
Winds will be lighter on Monday, but will still be active enough
to influence wind chill values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

TUESDAY:

A positively-tilted trof axis will approach the state from the
northwest on Tuesday. As this trof axis moves over the state a 100+
knot jet axis will be present at H500 from the ARK-LA-TEX region
extending into the Tennessee River Valley. Arkansas will be in the
left-front entrance region of this feature which promotes the
sinking of air, thus equating to settled weather overall. The right-
front region of the jet at H500 will be positioned over Louisiana
and central Mississippi which will promote the rising of air and
unsettled weather which may be in the form of wintry precipitation
along the I-20 corridor and locations south.

Expect overall fair and dry weather to persist over the state. A low
possibility of flurries across far southern Arkansas (near the
Arkansas/Louisiana border) will be possible, but will be a very low
chance. Model trends continue to keep the appreciable amounts of
wintry precipitation south of Arkansas. At the sfc, a high pressure
center will be located in the Central Plains region of the CONUS
with northerly winds at the sfc continuing to funnel in cold air
keeping our low and high temperatures in the range of 15 to 20
degrees below average.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will be present over Arkansas
on Wednesday. A second, upper lvl trof axis is progged to move over
Arkansas into Friday. On Friday, at H500, another 100+ knot jet axis
will be present with a similar position to the jet axis that was
over the same region on Tuesday. Into Saturday, a slightly amplified
ridge will move over the state equating to northwesterly flow aloft
becoming southwesterly flow aloft on Saturday. At the sfc, a tandem
of dry cold fronts will quickly move across the state during the day
on Thursday and Friday. Despite the FROPA, cold air advection is not
expected to be significant across the state as the air-mass behind
these frontal boundaries will keep temperatures similar on Thursday
and Friday.

Expect fair and dry conditions to persist across the state. Sky
conditions will vary from mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies over
this four day period. Sfc winds will predominately be out of the
west to southwest over this period with low and high temperatures
remaining below average, but only by around 5 degrees by Thursday
and Friday with temperatures increasing to normal values for late
January on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Clouds across the eastern third of the state continue to quickly
shift east which will give way to VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies through the period. Winds will remain elevated through
20/00z generally out of the N/NW. Sustained winds in excess of 10
kts will be seen with gusts above 20 kts at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     30  10  27  15 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         37  17  34  20 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       22   8  24  12 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    33  14  31  19 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  33  15  28  19 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     36  17  33  19 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      33  13  32  17 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  25   9  25  13 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        30  14  26  19 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     34  16  31  21 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   33  13  30  18 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         32  12  28  17 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      33  17  28  22 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67