829
FXUS64 KLZK 101043 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
543 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

All quiet early this Sun morning across the Natural State...with
warm but dry conditions ongoing. Temps had dropped into the mid 70s
to low 80s...with a mostly clear sky noted. Regional radar and
satellite imagery shows a complex of convection over NWRN KS moving
E/SE over time. Near-term high-res guidance continues to show this
activity dropping SE over time...potentially making it into SW MO/NE
OK by around sunrise. If this activity holds together...it could
make it into NWRN AR by just after sunrise. Even without the
convection...there will remain some potential for an outflow to drop
SE into the state. As a result...and with support of high res
guidance...have included some mentionable low-end POPs across NWRN
sections this Sun morning from around sunrise to midday. Beyond that
timeframe...there will be some potential for pulse-type diurnally
driven isolated convection during the afternoon hrs...which looks
more possible today than in previous days due to further weakening
ridging aloft.

The trend of weakening ridging aloft will continue into the work
week as the upper ridge that was in place to the SW of AR late last
week will move further west and amplify over the WRN CONUS. A larger
scale trough will setup over the central US...with the Mid-South and
lower MS River Valley regions on the SRN periphery of this trough.
Lowering heights aloft may allow enough potential for more isolated
to even scattered afternoon convection each day into Wed...maybe
into the latter half of the week. The best chances for seeing more
scattered afternoon convection will come Tue and Wed afternoons.
However...as time goes on this week...heights aloft will begin
increasing once again as an upper ridge to the SE begins to drift
closer to the region. This will likely start limiting the
coverage/potential of afternoon convection by Fri into the upcoming
weekend.

Temps through the period will slowly fall into the middle of the
week...though remaining around normal for highs each day. As a
result...will not require any Heat headlines starting today...though
it will again be close for some locations. The lowering temps over
time  will primarily be due to the increased coverage of afternoon
convection. By later in the week...expect highs to warm slowly back
just above normal as the potential for convection decreases with the
influence of upper ridging increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Expect dominant VFR conditions through this TAF period once
again. However...some isolated to scattered convection may be
seen...initially at the NWRN terminals this morning. Then...there
could be some isolated pop-up type convection this afternoon
further south. Potential/coverage too limited to mention at most
sites however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Camden AR         94  72  92  72 /  20  20  30  10
Harrison AR       92  71  91  70 /  40  10  30  20
Hot Springs AR    96  74  94  73 /  20  10  30  10
Little Rock   AR  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  20  10
Monticello AR     95  74  93  74 /  20  10  30  10
Mount Ida AR      95  72  93  71 /  20  10  30  10
Mountain Home AR  92  71  92  71 /  40  10  30  10
Newport AR        93  73  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  93  73 /  20  20  20  10
Russellville AR   97  75  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
Searcy AR         94  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
Stuttgart AR      93  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62