Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
197
FNUS71 KLWX 041216
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Big Levels Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
716 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EST on December 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure builds south of the region today. A potent area of
low pressure tracking across the eastern Great Lakes will drag a
strong cold front across the area tonight into Thursday. This
front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold temperatures, mountain
snow, and very gusty winds to the area. Canadian high pressure
approaches from the Mississippi Valley on Friday before settling
to the south over the weekend. A slow warming trend ensues on
Sunday into early next week with precipitation chances increasing
by Monday.
Today will be breezy but dry with southwest winds gusting up to
around 30 mph. Gusts will increase tonight to 40-45 mph, but RH
will recover to around 80 percent. Any precipitation that occurs
overnight into Thursday will likely be in the form of snow.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 36.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 17 mph with gusts to
around 28 mph increasing to 18 to 20 mph with
gusts to around 31 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 21
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (31300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
around 17 mph increasing to 11 to 12 mph with
gusts to around 19 mph late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........22 11 24 60 66 56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............19 25 29 32 34 34
RH..............59 44 35 36 38 45
20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 12 SW 14 SW 15 SW 17 SW 20
20 ft wind gust.9 15 22 24 28 31
Eye level wind..SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 10 SW 12
Eye lvl wnd gst. 9 13 14 17 19
Mix hgt (ft)....100 800 1500 1700 1300 700
Transport wind..SW 5 SW 14 SW 21 SW 21 SW 21 SW 18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 10 28 31 23 12
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
snow showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 24.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 21 to 26 mph. Gusts up
to 40 mph increasing to 43 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Breezy. Southwest winds 13 to 16 mph. Gusts up
to 40 mph increasing to 43 mph after 3 am.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........43 34 43 43 51 67
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE SNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 20 10
Temp............35 37 37 36 36 36
RH..............45 48 50 56 64 69
20 ft wind......SW 21 SW 23 SW 25 SW 24 SW 25 SW 26
20 ft wind gust.33 37 40 39 40 43
Eye level wind..SW 13 SW 14 SW 15 SW 14 SW 15 SW 16
Eye lvl wnd gst.20 22 24 23 24 26
Mix hgt (ft)....500 300 300 200 400 600
Transport wind..SW 18 SW 17 SW 16 SW 15 SW 17 SW 23
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 4 4 3 5 12
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 27.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 22 to 26 mph with gusts to
around 49 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 28 mph shifting to the northwest 29
to 38 mph in the late morning and afternoon,
then decreasing to around 28 mph late in the
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (82700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (63200
knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Breezy. West winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to
around 29 mph.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........60 48 30 22 31 26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............30 24 20 19 18 18
RH..............81 71 59 47 44 46
20 ft wind......W 25 W 25 W 26 W 26 NW 24 NW 22
20 ft wind gust.41 45 48 49 46 41
Eye level wind..W 15 W 15 W 16 W 16 NW 14 NW 13
Eye lvl wnd gst.25 27 29 29 28 25
Mix hgt (ft)....300 1500 4000 4900 4600 3300
Transport wind..W 22 W 28 W 38 NW 36 NW 31 NW 29
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 37 133 153 123 82
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT VYGD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...Hofmann
Requested by...Matt Ennis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2427763.0/LWX
.DELDT 12/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.ennis@usda.gov