033
FNUS71 KLWX 121056
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for SHEN: Headquarters Rx...National Park Service
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
656 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

While winds will generally be lighter today, some gusts in the 15-20
mph range are possible this afternoon, especially in exposed areas.
There may also be multiple wind shifts as a weak front wavers near the
area. Dry weather will continue with mostly sunny to sunny skies, so
fuels will continue to dry, although there may be a slight increase in
humidity compared to yesterday. Minimum humidity will likely be around
30 percent but could drop into the 20s if temperatures are warmer
than expected. Humidity recovers to around 80 percent tonight with
potential for low ceilings developing.

Mostly dry conditions will likely continue through Friday night, although
there could be patchy drizzle could occur during the late night and early
morning hours. Periods of low ceilings and higher humidity are expected
during this time.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 3 mph at ignition...becoming
                    southeast 5 to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...becoming 3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 8 mph shifting to the south 7 to 16
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /4200 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /41400 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  32  29  31  33  23  13  9   5   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  45  50  55  58  60  64  66  66  67
RH..............70  62  52  43  40  39  35  32  33  32
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   3   3   3   5   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.6   8   8   7   8   9   10  13  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.0
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   8   7   7   8   9   12  14  16
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4   5   10  11  14  18  24  33  40  41
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 5 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........17     32     32     44     57     59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............66     60     55     52     49     47
RH..............33     46     53     61     68     71
20 ft wind......SE 8   S 8    SE 5   SE 3   SE 2   SE 1
20 ft wind gust.16     13     9      7      5      3
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   600    600    600    600    600
Transport wind..S 15   S 12   S 10   S 8    S 7    S 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25     6      6      4      4      3
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...7 percent.
Temperature.........Max 65.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........66        76        63        47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         10
Chc of thdr (%).0         0         0         10
Temp............45        45        57        64
RH..............73        79        55        45
20 FT wind......E 1G3     NE 2G5    NE 2G5    E 3G8
Mix hgt (ft)....600       700       1700      2300
Transport wind..E 5       E 5       NE 5      E 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         3         7         14
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...Snyder
Requested by...Lane Gibbons
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2506020.0/LWX
.DELDT 03/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lane_gibbons@nps.gov