Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
861
FNUS71 KLWX 181357
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Bear Den Mtn...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
857 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Relative to previous days, the overall wind strength will
significantly diminish through the period requested. Maximum gusts
during the next 24 to 36 hours should largely be in the 10 to 15
knot range. Additionally, the atmosphere is expected to moisten in
time leading to higher relative humidities than recent days.
A wave of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley will
track along a stalled frontal system. It appears the primary
front should stay south of the area residing closer to the
Virginia-North Carolina border. As this entire frontal system
advances eastward, expect thickening clouds through the day. While
the forecast calls for rain showers arriving around 2 PM, the
current radar imagery shows activity moving in a tad earlier
(perhaps around noon). This increases wetting rain chances through
the evening to overnight period. Total rainfall amounts are likely
to be around a quarter inch or so. Any rain lifts away from the
Blue Ridge Mountains between 2 to 4 AM Wednesday. Drier conditions
are expected in the wake as the frontal system exits offshore into
the Atlantic.
As mentioned, overall wind fields will be less supportive of
strong winds. However, multiple wind shifts are likely to occur
as the frontal system tracks toward the area. Initial south to
southeasterly winds give way to westerlies as precipitation wanes
overnight. These eventually turn more northerly during the
mid/late morning on Wednesday before shifting to east-
northeasterly by the afternoon hours.
Additional rain chances loom at times between Thursday night and
Saturday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
early in the afternoon. Chance of rain late in
the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and early afternoon, shifting to
southeast in the late afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 4 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 58 68 77 84 87 89 91 93
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.... RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 20 20 30 30
Temp............37 39 41 44 44 45 44 44 43
RH..............46 42 39 36 36 36 41 41 45
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SE SE S SE
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT wind gust.7 8 12 12 13 13 13 13 14
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S SE SE S SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SE SE
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 7 8 12 12 10 9 6 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Rain likely in
the evening, then chance of rain overnight.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
the evening decreasing to 50 percent overnight
decreasing to 20 percent after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the
south in the evening and overnight, then
shifting to the west after 3 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 4 mph shifting to the
south in the evening and overnight, then
shifting to the west after 3 am.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........93 95 94 94 92 93 94 94 87 72 66 50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40 50 60 60 60 60 50 50 40 20 10 10
Temp............43 42 42 42 42 42 41 40 40 40 41 41
RH..............49 55 60 62 65 67 73 85 89 92 92 89
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S S S S S SE S W W
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 12
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE S S S S S S S SE S W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE S S S S S SW W W
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 7 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
northeast 5 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 4 mph shifting to the
northeast up to 4 mph late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43 43 40 41 43 43 43 43 45 47 50 53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............41 41 42 44 45 48 50 52 53 53 52 50
RH..............89 82 86 86 82 77 74 69 66 66 69 74
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW N N N N NE NE E E
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW N N N N NE NE E E
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8
Transp wind dir.W W W NW N N N N N NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 2 2 2 3 7 12 15 12 8 6 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...Rubin-Oster
Requested by...Derek Casbon
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526242.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jselby@blm.gov,derek_casbon@nps.gov