Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
141
FNUS71 KLWX 090456
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Chestnut Fire...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1156 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0005 EST on November 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Current observations near the wildfire remain elevated with
northwesterly gusts up to around 15 mph. Expect these to linger
through the first half of the night before diminishing toward
daybreak. Recoveries have been rather slow with RH values around
50 percent. As temperatures cool through the night, RH values
should come up some supporting moderate recoveries.
Gradients will be weaker today which supports less wind. As high
pressure passes by to the north, winds are forecast to shift over
to northerly before turning northeast to easterly for the second
half of the day. The forecast remains dry before a pattern change
ensues for Sunday. Although the day starts off dry, an approaching
frontal system supports wetting rains for Sunday afternoon into
the night. It appears the area should see around 0.25 to 0.50
inches through the event. Humidity values remain high given the
moister environment and periods of rain showers.
Next week is mainly dry although another cold front brings a shot
of rain on Thursday. It remains to be seen how much moisture moves
into the area which dictates potential rainfall amounts.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55 to 58 degrees.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast 5 mph late in the morning, then
becoming light late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 12 mph shifting to the northeast 5
to 14 mph in the late morning and early
afternoon, then decreasing to 2 mph late
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (28100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 9 mph shifting to the
northeast up to 4 mph late in the morning, then
becoming light late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........6 6 5 4 0 2 2 12 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............51 48 43 40 43 48 53 57 55
RH..............56 63 73 76 67 51 39 32 34
20 ft wind......NW 15 N 12 N 10 N 8 N 7 N 7 NE 6 NE 5 E 3
20 ft wind gust.18 15 13 10 9 12 8 6 6
Eye level wind..NW 9 N 7 N 6 N 5 N 4 N 4 NE 4 NE 3 E 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.11 9 8 6 5 7 5 4 4
Mix hgt (ft)....100 100 100 BLW100 800 2300 2800 2800 2300
Transport wind..NW 9 NW 8 N 7 N 6 N 9 NE 14 NE 8 NE 2 NE 1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 1 0 6 28 20 6 2
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 mph late
in the evening.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 5 mph shifting to the southeast
around 3 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 4 mph late
in the evening.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........14 17 45 53 49 75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............49 45 42 41 41 41
RH..............39 49 55 59 64 67
20 ft wind......E 2 E 2 SE 3 SE 5 SE 6 SE 6
20 ft wind gust.3 3 5 6 7 9
Eye level wind..E 1 E 1 SE 2 SE 3 SE 4 SE 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.2 2 3 4 5
Mix hgt (ft)....700 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..E 3 E 5 E 3 SE 5 SE 5 SE 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely in
the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 60 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph, gusts up to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to south
around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (22400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 7 mph.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........52 56 70 84 89 88
Weather cov..... LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 60 60
Temp............41 44 50 53 54 54
RH..............70 70 63 57 57 66
20 ft wind......SE 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 10
20 ft wind gust.10 13 16 17 17 17
Eye level wind..SE 4 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 8 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 300 900 500 700 1300
Transport wind..SE 5 S 9 S 16 S 12 S 13 S 20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 3 12 6 8 22
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Rubin-Oster
Requested by...Tim Culbreth
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426009.2/LWX
.DELDT 11/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy_culbreth@nps.gov