Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
129
FNUS71 KLWX 070542
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Chestnut Fire...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1242 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0100 EST on November 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A few showers are possible early this morning as a cold front
approaches the region from the northwest. Rain amounts will be
very minimal at best however. This front will push through the
region later today, providing a slight wind shift to out of the
NW. As the front pushes through, winds will also pick up in
intensity to around 10 to 15 mph or so. With clouds remaining
abundant for much of the day, and a later frontal passage,
afternoon RH values only drop into the 50 to 60 percent range
at minimum.
Friday is a day to watch for sure as a significantly drier air
mass moves into the region. Expect sunny skies, temperatures
in the low 70s, and afternoon minimum RH values approaching 30
percent. Additionally, 20-ft winds will be gusty out of the WNW
at around 15 to 20 mph.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated
showers.
CWR.................20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 3 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
TIME (EST) 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........82 75 84
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20 20 20
Temp............66 64 63
RH..............84 93 93
20 ft wind......W 3 W 3 W 3
20 ft wind gust.5 5 6
Eye level wind..W 2 W 2 W 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 3 4
Mix hgt (ft)....100 100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 3 W 3 W 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
in the morning.
CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 10 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 8
mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 9 mph increasing to 13 to 16 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (57600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....West winds around 3 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming northwest up to 5
mph early in the morning.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........81 78 66 67 59 46
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20 20 20 20 10 10
Temp............62 63 68 70 71 69
RH..............97 97 84 73 63 59
20 ft wind......W 5 NW 5 NW 7 NW 7 NW 8 NW 8
20 ft wind gust.6 7 12 15 15 15
Eye level wind..W 3 NW 3 NW 4 NW 4 NW 5 NW 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 7 9 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 600 2100 3600 4100 3200
Transport wind..W 2 NW 6 N 13 NW 15 NW 16 NW 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 3 23 47 58 42
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 4 mph.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........28 19 17 18 11 12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............64 59 55 53 51 48
RH..............63 72 74 77 80 86
20 ft wind......NW 7 N 7 N 6 NW 6 NW 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.12 10 9 7 6 6
Eye level wind..NW 4 N 4 N 4 NW 4 NW 3 NW 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.7 6 5 4 4
Mix hgt (ft)....1000 BLW100 100 100 100 100
Transport wind..N 8 N 5 N 6 NW 5 NW 3 NW 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 0 1 1 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......MISSING.
Transport winds.....
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 8 mph.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........13 5 4 1 3 1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............46 49 57 63 66 66
RH..............89 83 64 44 36 33
20 ft wind......W 5 W 6 W 8 W 10 W 12 W 13
20 ft wind gust.6 9 14 17 18 16
Eye level wind..W 3 W 4 W 5 W 6 W 7 W 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 5 8 10 11 10
Mix hgt (ft)....M M M M M M
Transport wind..M M M M M M
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Ledbetter
Requested by...Tim Culbreth
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426009.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy_culbreth@nps.gov