Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
495
FNUS71 KLWX 141051
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Elizabeth...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
551 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Increasing low and mid level clouds over the fire location this morning
with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Precipitation will move in
from the south later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Overall
precipitation intensity will be light to moderate across the fire location.
Heaviest rainfall looks to be later this afternoon and evening. Shower chances
will continue through the overnight into early Friday morning. High temperatures
today will struggle to push 45 degrees with minimum RH values in the
70 to 80 percent range. Winds will remain light out of the east and southeast
with gusts less than 15 mph. Rainfall amounts of a 0.50 to 0.80 inches
are expected over the fire location.
Shower chances come to an end Friday midday. Skies will slowly clear with winds
turning back to the north and northwesterly direction. Sustained speeds will
sit between 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity
values will fall back into the 70 to 80 percent range. High temperatures
Friday will push back into the low 50s.
Drier air returns with high pressure and gusty north to northwest
flow for the start of the weekend. Wind gusts up to 20 kts are
possible Saturday with minimum RH values falling back into the 35 to
50 percent range. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with wind
gusts less than 15 kts.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent shading). Chance of rain in the
morning after 8am, then light to moderate rain in the
afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph, then
shifting to the east around 5 mph late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 9 mph increasing to 5 to 13 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 4 mph,
then shifting to the east around 3 mph late in
the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96 95 95 97 98 98 97 98 97 97 98 97
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 20 20 50 50 50 90 90 90 90 90
Temp............35 35 37 39 41 42 42 43 44 44 44 44
RH..............82 89 85 85 85 86 82 82 89 96 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT wind gust.8 9 9 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 10 10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
Eye lvl wnd spd.2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.2 2 5 9 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent shading). Patchy fog through the
night. Moderate rain in the evening. Light rain likely
overnight.
CWR.................90 percent decreasing to 40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 5 mph shifting to the north 2 to 5
mph overnight.
Eye level winds.....East winds around 3 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........98 97 97 97 98 97 99 98 98 96 97 97
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............90 90 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 70 40 40
Temp............44 44 43 43 43 42 43 43 43 42 43 42
RH..............96 96 100 96 96 100 96 96 96 100 96 100
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.10 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 10 10 9
Eye lvl wnd dir.E E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.E E E E E NE N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 5
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent shading) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain and patchy
fog early in the before 11am morning.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
northwest 7 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest 7 to
14 mph in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 4 mph shifting to the
northwest up to 5 mph in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94 91 86 84 81 75 67 62 56 48 41 35
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....RN RNF RNF RNF FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0
Temp............42 42 42 43 44 46 49 51 52 53 54 53
RH..............96 96 96 96 96 93 83 77 74 71 71 74
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.9 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 16 17
Eye lvl wnd dir.N N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.6 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 10 12 13 14
$$
Forecaster...Taylor
Requested by...Ted Docev
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426516.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ted.docev@usda.gov