473
FXUS61 KLWX 071524
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1024 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues through this afternoon with rain chances
expected to return this evening into early Saturday morning as a
cold front crosses the region. A warm front will lift through the
area Saturday into Sunday with a stronger cold front to follow
SUnday night into Monday. This front will bring the coldest air by
far this season along with accumulating snow over the Allegheny
Mountains. Cold temperatures and breezy conditions will linger
through Tuesday before another warm up by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Went ahead and ended the growing season for northern and central
Maryland, northern Virginia, and Washington DC given a sufficient
amount of observations reflecting low temperatures of 32 degrees or
lower this morning. Southern Maryland (i.e St. Mary`s and Calvert
counties) and in Virginia (King George Co.) growing season still
remains intact given limited observations below 32 degrees.

High pressure will continue offshore today with a cold front set to
push across the area this evening into early Saturday morning. The
front will bring increasing clouds and breezy conditions through
this afternoon with increased rain chances overnight.

Overall expect a mostly dry and breezy day ahead. Gusts of 20 to 30
mph are expected throughout the day as southerly warm air advection
intensifies ahead of the incumbent front. Flow will generally
be out of the south/west with a downslope component just east of
the Allegheny Mountains. With that said, expect another day of
elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the Shenandoah
Valley and eastern West Virginia. This is largely due in part to
the combination of gusty winds and low RH values (30-40
percent) along with ongoing severe to moderate drought concerns.
There is also a concern for fire weather further east that will
have to be monitored for any potential needs of an SPS later
this afternoon. Please read the Fire Weather section at the
bottom for more details.

Expect highs this afternoon in the upper 50s and mid 60s. Mountain
locations will be a touch cooler in the low to mid 50s. Mid and high
level clouds will increase from the west midday into late afternoon
as the cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Rain
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will likely develop
west of the Alleghenies later this afternoon and evening.
Current HREF probs have CAPE values less than 300 j/kg and a
smattering of 40 dbz paintballs between 22z-2z/5-9pm. Storms
will remain below severe limits although a few could be gusty
despite stability aloft. Most will see a progressive band/area
of light to moderate showers work from west to east across the
region. Moisture will be fairly limited with rainfall amounts
generally between a 0.10 to 0.25 inches areawide. Locally higher
amounts are possible along the Alleghenies given terrain
influences.

Lows tonight will fall into the  upper 40s and and mid 50s with
increased cloud cover. These values will be much warmer than
previous nights given a warm front lifting north ahead of the main
cold front overnight into early Saturday morning. Increased cloud
cover and rain chances will help keep lows elevated as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mild weekend lies ahead as temperatures warm back into the mid
60s to low 70s. Progressive cyclonic flow aloft continues with
the main upper low centered near Hudson Bay. However, any
additional perturbations will only aid in added cloud cover for
Saturday. A mainly northwesterly flow is expected to start the
weekend before warm advection ensues by Sunday ahead of a much
stronger system.

While Sunday is likely to be mild, this does come with a risk of
some passing warm advection showers. Skies remain mostly cloudy
but there should be plenty of dry time in between any such
shower activity. On Sunday morning, the parent cold front lies
off to the west over the Ohio Valley. Within the expanding warm
sector downstream, increasing southerlies may gust to around 15
to 25 mph. Rainfall chances increase later in the day as the
cold front begins to cross the local area. Total amounts should
again be on the lighter side, generally under a quarter inch.
Behind the frontal system, west-northwesterly winds pick up in
earnest, particularly over the mountains where gusts up to 20 to
30 mph are possible. Low temperatures on Sunday night fall into
the mid 30s to low 40s east of the Blue Ridge. Off to the west,
the coldest spots will be along the Alleghenies with
temperatures into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday`s cold front is expected to be offshore by Monday morning. In
its wake, the deep parent upper trough and its accompanying cold
airmass will pivot overhead. Mid/upper-level heights and low/mid-
level temperatures are forecast to be 3-4 standard deviations below
normal per NAEFS climatology (i.e. 850 hPa temps -8 to -13 C 12Z
Tuesday, which may challenge the daily record for the KIAD UA).

Strong cold air advection and a persistent pressure gradient between
low pressure over southeastern Canada and Polar high pressure
building in from the Midwest will lead to blustery conditions.
Despite downsloping northwest flow and peaks of sunshine, high
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will struggle to escape the 40s.
In fact, some guidance keeps high temperatures in the 30s for most
of the region (coldest Tuesday). Higher elevations will be notably
colder by about 10-15 degrees, and wind chills will be a factor as
well (running 10-20 degrees below the air temps). Wind chills may
not get much above freezing for very long Monday and Tuesday, even
during the afternoon hours as winds gust to 30 mph or more.

With the northwest flow comes a favorable trajectory off of the
Great Lakes. This is expected to result in the first accumulating
upslope snow event of the season (likely begins late Sunday night
and persists into Monday night or perhaps early Tuesday morning). It
remains a bit too soon to speculate on exact amounts, but the first
plowable snowfall of the season is becoming ever more likely along
and west of the Allegheny Front. Some guidance implies possible
warning-level snowfall along the west-facing slopes of the higher
peaks, which makes sense given some instability and moisture
overlapping the DGZ (as evidenced by a high Snow Squall Parameter).

An embedded shortwave and higher FROUDE numbers indicate the
potential for precipitation moving east of the Allegheny Front, with
accumulating snow possible particularly late Monday into Monday
night into the foothills east of the highest ridges. Depending on
the strength of the wave and the amount of available moisture, snow
showers may dot the landscape well into the Piedmont and possibly
even the metro areas Monday night. Although significant snowfall
accumulation is unlikely east of the Appalachians, the cold air and
snow shower potential would be a fitting reminder of the record
Veteran`s Day snowstorm that occurred nearly 4 decades ago.

By the middle of next week, temperatures should begin to moderate. A
reinforcing cold front is expected to approach and move through the
Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, which would temporarily pause
the warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across all terminals. Through the day,
southerly winds will pick up with afternoon gusts to around 20
to 25 knots. Before this occurs, a brief period of enhanced low-
level wind shear is possible, mainly in the 11-15Z timeframe.
Any rain showers that arrive come in tonight with borderline
restrictions. For now, will maintain a SCT015 group, but
conditions could turn MVFR at times if rainfall turns moderate
in intensity.

Conditions dry out on Saturday behind the cold front as winds
turn northwesterly. VFR conditions are expected through much of
the weekend before a stronger system impacts the region during
the second half of Sunday. Before this system arrives,
southerlies will gust to around 15 to 20 knots with some passing
showers through the day. The mentioned cold front sweeps through
Sunday evening/night yielding an abrupt shift to west to
northwesterly winds. This may yield some uptick in winds as well
as this front pushes across the region.

Scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds are expected to drape over
the region in northwest flow Monday into Tuesday, along with
blustery conditions and much colder than normal temperatures. Gusts
could approach or slightly exceed 30 knots at times, which will keep
wind chills below freezing for most of the period. Come Monday
evening and night, a shortwave embedded in the larger scale trough
and northwest flow could bring a few flakes east of the mountains.
Although significant accumulating snowfall appears unlikely east of
the Appalachians at this time, some brief restrictions are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
In advance of the next frontal system approaching from the
Midwest, southerly winds will increase through the day. As such,
Small Craft Advisories are in place for all marine zones through
the overnight hours. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible
during this period. The parent cold front brings a batch of
showers through the waters by later tonight with winds shifting
over to westerly behind the system.

Winds become northwesterly on Saturday and stay below advisory
thresholds. Another uptick in wind fields is likely for the
second half of Sunday as southerly flow intensifies ahead of a
stronger frontal system. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed ahead of this system as well as for the gusty west-
northwesterly winds in the wake.

Blustery northwest winds may approach gale force at times,
especially early on Monday and again Monday night into Tuesday as an
embedded wave passes overhead. Generally speaking, frequent gusts of
20 to 30 knots and much colder than normal weather is expected early
next week. A rain or snow shower can`t be ruled out Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will approach the region today before moving
through later tonight into Saturday. Latest model guidance does
show an uptick in the RH values for the most part, but still
dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s during the afternoon for
most. Locally, the Shenadoah Valley may see much lower RH values,
particularly in the northern portions and up into eastern WV/west-
central MD. The strong southerly winds will create a downsloping
effect on the northwest side of the Blue Ridge mountains, and some
guidance has RHs dropping back down into the 20s. Additionally,
winds today will be around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph
out of the south. The combination of these two elements, paired
with very dry fuels from recent days, could lead to an elevated
risk for wildfire spread this afternoon. New fire starts may be more
difficult, owing to cloud cover and temperatures in the low 60s,
but any ongoing fires could face some challenges.

The aforementioned cold front pushes through tonight, but it is
likely to only yield up to a tenth of an inch of precipitation in any
one given location.

A stronger cold front moves through late Sunday leading to more gusty
winds, but much colder temperatures into next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
While tidal levels remain on the lower side, expect an uptick in
the next 12 to 24 hours in response to the southerly flow.
However, no tidal flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ535-536-
     538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...BRO/EST
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/EST
MARINE...BRO/DHOF
FIRE WEATHER...BRO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO