


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
379 FXUS61 KLWX 120732 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface high pressure builds to the southwest through the weekend as cold front approaches the forecast area. The cold front pushes through the region on Monday before stalling to the south through midweek. Another front approaches from the west at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon with a hot and humid airmass overhead. With surface high pressure building to the southwest, there will be minimal forcing aloft leading to isolated/scattered and disorganized convective activity. Due to plenty of instability with hot and humid conditions, some storms may become strong to severe with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts in the form of downbursts. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the area along and west of the Blue Ridge in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Isolated instance of flooding are possible with the Weather Prediction Center having the area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most with heat indices rising into the upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower and thunderstorms chances increase on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Warm and humid conditions continue with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing in the afternoon during peak daytime heating. Convective activity will be more widespread compared to Saturday with most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather from SPC. Within strong to severe thunderstorms, wind will be the primary hazard due to a threat of downbursts. In addition to the severe threat, the Weather Prediction center has portions of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for excessive rain with PWATS nearing or exceeding 2 inches in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Come Monday, a cold front is forecast to push through the forecast area bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front will move through the area Monday evening into the overnight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible with some being strong to severe. There remains a uncertainty regarding the severe weather forecast for Monday. Lingering cloud cover from convection on Sunday could inhibit daytime heating and thus lead to convection struggling to initiate. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the 80s for most with isolated locations reaching the 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Typical mid-summer conditions will persist through next week, with heat and humidity, as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Synoptically speaking, a Bermuda high will remain in place offshore, while the core of the jet stream remains displaced off to our north across southern Canada. While some low-amplitude disturbances located to the south of the upper jet could potentially impact the area over the course of the week, predictability of such features at such long time horizons is very low. While each day will feature chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, coverage is expected to be highest on Friday as a trough and associated cold front at the surface start to approach from the Great Lakes. High temperatures will generally be around 90, with low temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the weekend across all terminals as weak high pressure builds to the southwest. A warm and moist airmass will lead to daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms with flight restrictions possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Winds remain out of the southeast both days, blowing 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and becoming light and variable overnight. A cold front pushes across the terminals late Monday evening into the overnight with showers and thunderstorms possible. Within showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and flight restrictions are expected. Winds shift from southeasterly to northwesterly in the wake of the frontal passage. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but an afternoon or evening thunderstorms may be possible either day. Light and variable winds to start on Tuesday will become light out of the south by later Tuesday into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Light winds are expected through the weekend over the waters with high pressure building to the southwest. Winds remain below SCA criteria each day. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday, with the greatest chances for precipitation staying west of the waters. Chances for thunderstorms over the waters increases on Monday as a cold front pushes through Monday evening and into the overnight. SMWs are possible during strong to severe thunderstorms. Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable to start on Tuesday, before turning out of the south later Tuesday into Wednesday. SMWs may be needed either afternoon or evening as a result of thunderstorms. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of southerly winds will lead to elevated tidal anomalies over the weekend and into early next week. This carries most of the tidal locations into Action stage, particularly during the higher of the two astronomical high tide cycles. Sensitive locations, such as Annapolis, are forecast to hit Minor stage during the high tide cycle Sunday and Monday mornings. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...AVS/KJP MARINE...AVS/KJP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX