751
FXUS61 KLWX 061430
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly push through the area this afternoon,
stalling to the south tonight and Monday. A secondary cold front
will move through Monday night. Strong high pressure will build
in by Wednesday. The next low pressure system may arrive
Thursday into Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is aligned from southcentral PA southwestward into
eastern parts of the higher terrain of West Virginia. A
stationary front extends from this cold front near a weak area
of low pressure over western Maryland to the southeast across
parts of the VA Piedmont and then east to southern Maryland.
Temperatures across Maryland are in the middle 50s with patches
of fog in the region, while temperatures over central VA are in
the lower to middle 70s to the south of the stationary front
with a few passing showers.

These showers will continue to be isolated into the early
afternoon, before additional showers and a perhaps a rumble of
thunder or two develop and linger into the early evening hours.
Occasional lightning and gusty winds could accompany the
thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening, primarily
across the VA Piedmont along and south of I-64.

As the cold front slowly progresses southeastward, temperatures
will slowly fall throughout the afternoon behind the front. In
most places, the high temperatures for today could occur around
Noon then we will see a steady fall. Overrunning moisture,
upper level forcing and a cold front will combine to form
widespread rainfall through the night tonight. Temperatures
will drop into the upper 30s and 40s tonight. In some places in
the northwest where cold air at the surface undercuts mild air
aloft, there is a slight chance for a brief period of sleet or
freezing rain. Confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold front makes its way into southeast VA, it could
stall and meander around in southwest VA most of the day Monday
into Monday night. Additional energy and moisture will crowd the
front during this time frame and bring additional periods of
stratiform rain to the region. As stated in previous
discussions, the rain amounts would average 1 to 2 inches which
would be beneficial. Temperatures Monday will be about 15
degrees cooler with places only reaching the upper 40s to the
lower 50s.

Previous discussion...
A secondary cold front and sharper trough axis will reach the
area Monday night. This could bring a brief round of upslope
snow showers in the Alleghenies. CAMs are indicating a squall-
like feature along the front in the Ohio Valley, although
instability remains shallow and temperatures marginal,
suggesting impacts will be minor. Upslope snow showers
shouldn`t last long behind the front, with totals expected to be
an inch or less. East of the mountains, there will just be a
wind shift with increasing gusts and falling temperatures the
second half of the night.

While sun makes a return Tuesday, it will be chilly and windy.
Highs will only reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, with gusts of
25-35 mph (up to 45 in the mountains). Tuesday night will likely
be the coldest night of this stretch with widespread subfreezing
temperatures outside of the urban cores.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A period of dry and benign weather is forecast to briefly settle
over the region on Wednesday as a nearly zonal flow builds aloft as
high pressure settles at the surface. The streak of below normal
temperatures that begins on Monday is likely to continue into
Wednesday with high temperatures forecast to peak in the 50s.

The benign weather pattern is forecast to start breaking down late
Wednesday as both deterministic and ensemble model guidance are
suggesting an active weather pattern is favored for the second half
of this week. Zonal flow aloft starts to give way to a troughy
pattern that has multiple troughs passing through the region. The
first trough to impact our region will be shortwave trough that
drives a surface low and it`s corresponding front through the area.
Precipitation will be possible Thursday with SFC low with the
GFS/GEFS having a stronger trough while Euro is much weaker and has
less precipitation. This trough is forecast to exit to the east late
Thursday into Friday and be replaced by another strong upper level
trough/closed off low.

An extended period of precipitation is looking to be possible Friday
and Saturday due to a possible coastal low along with slow moving
front associated with the strong upper level trough. Model guidance
is showing a lot of spread in relation to strength of the upper
level trough and whether a southern stream energy will form and
phase with the primary northern stream trough energy. Both model
suites are indicating the potential for the trough to close off and
become a slow moving upper level low. Depending on the track and
strength of the coastal low, our region could see a multi-day
soaking rain event along with some wintry precipitation over the
mountains. If the coastal low tracks close enough to the coast, an
easterly flow along it`s north/south oriented front could lead to
orographic enhancement of precipitation along the Blue Ridge Mtns.
We will need to monitor this system for the threat of excessive
rain leading to flooding, but much of this rain will likely be
beneficial for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR conditions are at MRB and MTN, while VFR conditions unfold
elsewhere late this morning. Developing showers this afternoon
are expected to lower ceilings once again to MVFR into early
evening. Any thunderstorms that could develop would be more
likly in the area of CHO. At this time, that chance is too low.
NNW winds could gust up to 20 kt for a few hours this afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Ceilings will likely drop to IFR tonight with widespread rain
developing which will reduce visibility. Conditions should
gradually improve Monday afternoon as the slow moving front
pushes farther to the south. A secondary cold front will cross
the area Monday night. In the wake of the front, NW winds will
gust 20-30 kt through Tuesday. VFR conditions should prevail.

VFR conditions are favored on Wednesday, but subVFR conditions will
be possible Thursday through Saturday due to showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will gradually work through the waters this
afternoon and evening. There is a chance of gusty northwest
winds for several hours behind the front. Small craft advisories
remains in effect for all waters through the day. A few
thunderstorms could near southern Maryland this evening but
aren`t expected to have gusty winds.

Previous discussion...
There will be a brief surge of northerly winds down the bay
tonight as low pressure passes to the south, which will last
into Monday morning. Another advisory has been issued for this
period. After another lull, a secondary cold front will push
through Monday night, resulting in a sharp increase in NW winds.
Advisories will be likely into Tuesday for gusts up to 30 kt.
It`s not out of the question a few gusts could near gale force.
Winds will gradually decrease Tuesday night.

Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Thursday. SubSCA
are favored Friday and Saturday at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS/KLW
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/JMG
MARINE...ADS/KLW/JMG