568
FXUS61 KLWX 170049
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast
of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system
will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front
pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build
in from the north Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
After the round of severe wx this afternoon and evening,
attention turns to the next possible round of severe wx
overnight. Let me preface this with there continues to be
uncertainties with how strong any storms may be as they move
into the area during the night. Latest radar imagery shows
severe and tornado warned storms across the Ohio Valley. Most
model guidance has these congealing into several linear features
that eventually move eastward. Since we won`t have our daytime
heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the
humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday
could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe
elements overnight. Will continue to evolve latest trends. Key
message now, prepare for the potential for watches and/or
warnings overnight should they be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach and push across the region early in
the day Saturday. There had previously been a risk for severe
weather during the first half of the day on Saturday. However,
this threat has diminished significantly today. Thinking is that
the multiple rounds of convection, especially the overnight
round (severe or not) should help to kick out any lingering
outflow boundaries from the region. The air mass will not have
time to reload before the fropa during the morning, thus
thinking any coverage of showers/storms will be very limited.
Best chance for any severe weather looks to be off to our south
and east, where the fropa won`t occur until early-mid afternoon.

High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to
upper 80s Saturday. The big difference will be a 10+ degree dew
point drop, so it will be much less humid.

Once the front pushes through the region on Saturday, winds pick
up substantially out of the W, then WNW. Wind Advisories will
be issued shortly for the high ridges along the Allegheny Front
through Saturday afternoon. Winds remain elevated Saturday
night into Sunday as well, but the extent of the Wind Advisory
is just a bit uncertain at this time. It may need to be extended
further in time, but later shifts can re-evaluate that threat.

Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs
Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for
mid-May.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The synoptic pattern will remain on the amplified side heading into
next week. To start off the work week, the initial system that
tracked through the Great Lakes over the weekend will have relocated
to coastal New England. At the same time, an anomalous upper ridge
centered over the Gulf of America will build northward as the next
system sets up over the central U.S. This overall configuration will
support a quiet start to the week. It is not until the influence of
the upstream trough that a pattern shift ensues. At this point,
Wednesday will act as that day of transition which ushers in a more
unsettled pattern. Eventually this upper trough passes overhead
toward the Thursday into Friday time period next week.

The start of the work week will feature the mildest temperatures of
the extended forecast period. Multi-ensemble forecast trends show
the downtick in temperatures, particularly in the Tuesday through
Friday timeframe. While starting off in the mid 70s to low 80s
underneath mostly sunny skies, winds shift to mainly easterly
leading to an increase in cloud cover by Tuesday. By Wednesday,
highs fall down into the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely
through the day. Given precipitable water values possibly into the
1.25 to 1.50 inch range, there could easily be some heavy rain
signatures. With a number of locations receiving flooding rains
earlier this week, there could be some risk of additional flooding
given such antecedent conditions in place.

Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work
week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a
chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by
Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the
conclusion of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another round of thunderstorms could arrive late tonight into
Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this
point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into
our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be
yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and
certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So,
will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF
period.

There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as
well, which could also contain gusty winds, but think this will
be east of any of our terminals. Once the front passes
though, winds increase substantially out of the W at around 20
to 30 knots. This could continue into Sunday, albeit a touch
lighter.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as
high pressure maintains control across the region.

VFR conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday in response to high
pressure across the region. Initial winds will be northwesterly with
afternoon gusts to around 20 knots. By Tuesday, expect a shift to
northerlies and eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in
the day. Moving to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional
clouds into the night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on
Wednesday with lengthy restrictions expected. Periods of rain are
expected with easterlies gusting to around 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Another chance for severe weather looks to push through late
tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of yet
another MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain,
but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this
does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs
would likely also be needed if this feature tracks directly over
our area.

There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as
well, which could also contain gusty winds. This should push
through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier and
windy conditions in its wake. Severe threat with this round has
decreased greatly, but best chance would be in the central/southern
Chesapeake Bay waters. SCA conditions likely on Saturday and
Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots across all the waters.
High pressure settles overhead Sunday night into Monday,
bringing sub-SCA winds.

There may be a brief window of advisory-caliber winds on Monday
morning given breezy northwesterlies. Through the day, some
occasional upticks are possible before gradients weaken in response
to high pressure building to the north. Winds turn more
north to easterly on Tuesday ahead of the next weather maker.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ008.
VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...CJL/CPB
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CJL/CPB