233
FXUS61 KLWX 060114
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
914 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure wedging south for eastern Canada will continue to
shunt any substantial precipitation away from the area through
Thursday. Increased cloud cover and near normal temperatures will
also remain as light onshore flow continues. Meanwhile, low pressure
will form along the southeast U.S coast Friday before pushing north
into the Carolinas this weekend. This will lead to an uptick in
heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances across the region Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The wedge of high pressure remains entrenched across the region
through the Carolinas tonight, resulting in overcast skies and
occasional drizzle. Overall, most areas will stay dry, but can`t
rule out patchy drizzle here and there, along with some low to
mid level clouds.

For the rest of tonight, expect a high dense overcast with any
substantial precip remaining south of I-64 in central VA. Some
river fog may try to develop out over the Shenandoah Valley and
areas west, but that will be very localized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Through the day Wednesday, low-level moisture will start surging
northward into the area as wedge begins to weaken and onshore flow
begins to strengthen. Expect light rain to stay mainly across far
southern zones and start making more northward progress Wednesday
afternoon. The overall trend has continued to be drier as the sfc
ridge is forecast to hold stronger and suppress any precip further
south. Any rain is likely to be very light and spotty due to
abundance of mid-level dry air.

Thursday will in large be dry with onshore flow continuing.
Cannot rule out a few spotty showers, but coverage is expected to be
rather spotty.

Temps through the short term will be below average for both highs
and lows by a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptically, the area continues to remain in a holding pattern with
a wedging surface high pressure system off the New England coast and
area of low pressure pushing up along the coastal Carolinas. The
strength of the wedging high pressure system to the north combined
with the placement of the low pressure system off the Carolina coast
will dictate precipitation chances this weekend into early next
week. Outside of these two features is an incoming upper level
trough that will swing east from central Canada, the Ohio River
Valley, and Mid-South region. On top of this the western Atlantic
ridge will begin to bulge sending additional moisture in the region
especially later this weekend and into early next week.

Model consensus continues to result in lower rain chances Friday and
Saturday with a slow trend upward Sunday into early next week. This
is due largely in part to a greater spread of moisture across the
region with PWATS per the EPS/GEFS and NAEFS dropping down into the
0.80-1.10" range both Friday and Saturday. These modeled values
increase into the 1.2-1.4" range Sunday and Monday as the trough
approaches from the west and additional coastal moisture works into
the region.

Highest shower and thunderstorm chances should be confined along and
south I-66 (i.e Shenandoah Valley and central VA Piedmont) Friday
into Saturday. These chances increase Sunday and Monday for areas
west of the Blue Ridge and south of DC. Once again, coverage will be
dependent on what happens with the coastal moisture. The primary
frontal system should remain well to the northwest through Monday
before crossing by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the valid TAF period
as strengthening high pressure over southeast Canada wedges south.
High level overcast will be fairly persistent through the remainder
of the evening given increased onshore flow. The thickest cloud
cover will be confined to terminals south of the corridor and
down into central/southern VA (i.e KCHO, KRIC, KSHD, and KROA).
These locations could see temporary reductions of MVFR to IFR
pending low and mid level clouds as well as light shower
activity moving through.

Solid overcast is likely to persist through Wednesday given the
strengthened wedge and increased onshore flow. Expect MVFR to
perhaps some pockets of IFR (especially terminals south of
I-66/US-50 and toward I-64) late tonight and into Wednesday.
High pressure to the north should suppress most of precipitation
chances south of the corridor terminals Wednesday given some
extra dry air aloft. This may also allow for more filtered
breaks of sunshine (SCT-BKN cigs) in the corridor and for
terminals west of the Blue Ridge. Winds will remain out of the
east and northeast through Wednesday evening at less than 15
kts.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely at times Thursday and Friday as
persistent easterly winds prevail. This brings in lower marine
stratocu and spotty passing showers especially across terminals in
central VA and the Shenandoah Valley. Lower CIGs and some mist/fog
are most likely each night to early morning through Saturday.

VFR conditions return for the weekend with high pressure still
wedged in from the north. Some temporary reductions may be noted
SUnday afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity pops up across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through Wednesday afternoon as high
pressure wedges south of from southeast Canada and northern New
England. Winds will remain light and variable generally out of the
east and northeast at this time. Winds begin to strengthen Wednesday
evening into Thursday with SCA conditions likely to return as
onshore flow increases.

A strong area of high pressure over Southern New England slides
offshore this weekend. This maintains a steady east wind over the
local waters, with a prolonged period of SCA conditions possible.
This is most likely over the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore bays
and tributaries. Winds could start to weaken Friday night, though
some elevated winds likely persist into the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore winds remain through midweek as wedging high pressure sets
up over the northeast CONUS. The east to northeast wind direction
will result in increased tidal anomalies through Tuesday which could
push the sensitive tidal sites into minor flood stage, particularly
at Annapolis. As we approach Full Moon on Saturday, August 9, 2025
and onshore flow strengthens, expect the risk of minor coastal
flooding to increase again during the back half of the workweek and
upcoming weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...CJL/CPB
SHORT TERM...CJL/CPB/EST
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/EST
MARINE...CJL/CPB/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL