746
FXUS61 KLWX 271827
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
227 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift offshore through tonight as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The warm front will lift
across the Mid-Atlantic Friday, then linger near the area this
weekend. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes Sunday into
Monday dragging a cold front across the region. High pressure will
follow for Tuesday into Wednesday, then another frontal system will
approach Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue this afternoon
with sporadic wind gusts to around 15 to 20 mph at times. High
temperatures remain on track, reaching upper 50s to mid 60s
today.

Seasonable temperatures and increasing clouds are expected
tonight as winds turn southerly ahead of an approaching warm
front. Little to no precip is expected prior to daybreak Friday
with low temps in the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Dry
low levels ahead of the front may keep rain shower coverage more
scattered in nature. Despite the increased cloud cover and some
showers around, southwest flow should push temps well into the
60s, with lower 70s most likely in central VA where more breaks
in the clouds are likely.

The steady south/southwest flow and lingering clouds will keep
temps mild Friday night, mainly in the 50s.

The warm front will linger near or just north of the area
Saturday. In its wake, clouds will linger, but west to southwest
downsloping flow still looks to push temps into the 70s, perhaps
near 80 in spots.

Saturday night looks to be another mild night with lingering
clouds and west to southwest winds, perhaps not falling below 60
in parts of the area through early Sunday morning. Rain chances
may increase late at night west of I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday, a large Bermuda high will be in place offshore as low
pressure starts to organize over the center of the country. Such a
pressure pattern will lead to southerly flow locally, and help to
advect an unseasonably warm airmass into the region. Temperatures
should reach into the upper 70s to near 80 for most, beneath mostly
cloudy skies. A weak and decaying upper disturbance will lift
northeastward from the lower Mississippi Valley through the
Tennessee Valley on Sunday, and then to the crest of the
Appalachians by daybreak Monday. This disturbance may lead to the
development of a few showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday night,
especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. However, the bulk of the
day Sunday looks like it should stay dry.

Meanwhile, a more potent shortwave and an associated surface low
will track from the Central Plains on Sunday toward the Great Lakes
on Sunday night, and then into the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. As
this system`s upper trough approaches from the west, showers and
thunderstorms appear likely during the day Monday. Most guidance
shows some instability developing during the day Monday, with ample
deep layer shear also present. As a result, thunderstorms that do
form should be well organized, and could become strong to severe.
SPC currently has much of the forecast area outlooked in a Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, with damaging winds and
hail being the primary threats. Temperatures should once again reach
into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday.

The system`s cold front will move through on Monday night, with much
cooler air filtering into the region within northwesterly flow on
Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies are expected as high pressure builds to
our north, with high temperatures generally in the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday as the next
system approaches from the west. Most guidance holds off on showers
until later Wednesday night or Thursday, but if faster solutions
were to verify, some rain could move into the area as early as
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds then become S tonight at lighter speeds ahead of an
approaching warm front. Very few clouds are expected, with VFR
through the TAF period.

W/SW winds are expected Friday through Saturday in the wake of a
warm front lifting across the region. Some lower CIGs, a few
rain showers, and perhaps marginal LLWS are possible heading
into Friday as the warm front crosses. Threw in some PROB30
groups where appropriate, but not confident enough at any
terminal to go beyond that at this point. Daytime gusts of
15-20 kts are possible, with lighter speeds at night.

Prevailing VFR conditions and south to southwesterly winds are
expected on both Sunday and Monday. Temporary drops to sub-VFR may
be possible Sunday in showers, and then on Monday in
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sporadic winds gusts to 20 knots can be expected through around
6 PM, so SCA will remain in effect until that time. Beyond that,
there will be a bit of a lull in winds this evening as winds
mix less efficiently once the inversion starts to set in.
However, as winds turn out of the south tonight, gusts around 20
knots are expected over the middle portion of the Chesapeake
Bay and lower tidal Potomac River, owing to southerly
channeling.

West to southwest flow will prevail Friday into Saturday as a
warm front lifts across the waters. Near shore gusts may
approach 20 knots or perhaps a little higher during the
afternoon hours each day, but cold water relative to warming air
temps probably keeps mixing and gusts lower over the wider and
deeper waterways. Otherwise, a few showers are possible Friday.

SCA conditions appear possible within south to southwesterly flow on
both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Occasional wind gusts to around 20 mph this afternoon, paired
with RH values dropping in the teens to low 20s have lead to an
elevated risk for the spread of wildfires this afternoon. Wind
gusts have been a bit less frequent than initially expected with
this forecast, so not quite "near-critical" today, but still
very dry. So, any ongoing fire, if caught in the right gust,
could spread quickly.

RH recoveries may be modest tonight, only rising into the 50s and
60s (perhaps slightly higher near the Chesapeake Bay and over the
Alleghenies). A warm front will lift into the area Friday bringing
more clouds, higher RHs, and the potential for rain showers.

Gusty SW winds are expected this weekend ahead of an approaching
frontal system. However, RH values should be on the increase
each day, giving less of a concern for elevated fire weather
conditions. Additionally, much of the region could get some
wetting rain Friday ahead of the weekend, so that should also
help.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...CJL