851
FXUS61 KLWX 100853
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
353 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead today before sliding east. An area
of low pressure will track to our south Friday night into Saturday
bringing light snow to the area. High pressure will build back in
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure slides east today while an elongated upper trough digs
into the Southeast US. A surface low pressure system will pull away
from the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning and make its way into
the Carolinas by this evening.

The bulk of the snowfall associated with this system will stay to
the south of our area and then off the coast of the Carolinas, in a
favorable position of the synoptic UL jet (left exit region). The
northern gradient of snow totals will likely be tight, and could
shift a bit north or south depending on where the jet sets up.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued from tonight into
Saturday morning for counties along our southern tier given
fair confidence in around 2 inches of snow accumulation. More
counties could be added if a northward shift of the jet seems
more likely.

Advisory level snow is likely for the Alleghenies where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains for this evening through Saturday
evening for an additional 2-4" of snow out there with up to 6"
possible on the higher ridges. Behind the system, upslope snow
showers and gusty winds will continue. Considerably blowing and
drifting snow is likely.

Elsewhere, confidence is increasing for light snow accumulation
(1-1.5 inches) for most of the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. The northern Shenandoah Valley is expected to get the
least snow, in the shadow of the Alleghenies. Regardless of
amount, fresh snow on top of the previous (and likely now icy in
many spots) snowpack will require extra caution when out and
about.

High temperatures Friday top out in the low 30s for most of the
area, and in the upper 20s in the mountains. Lows fall into the 20s,
teens in the mountains. With light winds Friday, we`re granted a
brief reprieve from significantly colder wind chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upslope snow likely continues along the Alleghenies into Saturday
evening. High pressure builds in behind the exiting system,
resulting in clearing skies east of the mountains. Gusty northwest
flow returns and could gust 25-30 mph by Saturday afternoon. In the
mountains, gusts 35-40 mph will result in blowing and drifting snow,
as well as single digit wind chills. Temperature wise, expect
slightly warmer in the mid-upper 30s. Overnight lows drop back into
the teens and 20s.

Winds diminish on Sunday as high pressure builds in. Highs will be a
few degrees warmer, and lows a few degrees cooler with light to calm
winds overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak surface high quickly moves offshore as several upper troughs
look set to move across the area next week. Overall, conditions look
to be dry and cold east of the Alleghenies. Upslope mountain showers
persist for much of the week, with some enhancements Monday and
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Monday brings the highers temps of the
week as highs reach the upper 30s to low 40s. After that, highs
likely to be below freezing for most of the area Tuesday through
late week. Overnight lows in the teens, with single digits possible
by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of today. NW winds will
gradually diminish tonight with high pressure moving into the
region. Cloud cover will increase through the day with the
approaching system, but lowering cigs are expected to hold off until
tonight. Sub-VFR conditions are expected with snow across the area.
About 1-2 inches of snow is expected, but could see up to 3 inches
locally. Higher totals will be restricted to the south, so CHO would
be the more likely of the terminals to see locally higher amounts.

Sub-VFR conditions likely continue into Saturday morning, but should
improve quickly by the afternoon. Gusty NW winds return with gusts
up to around 20 knots. Winds diminish Saturday night into Sunday.

VFR conditions are likely for the start of next week. A passing cold
front could bring gusty northwest winds late Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
An SCA remains in effect through mid-morning today until the winds
subside below criteria. SCA conditions are possible again Saturday
with gusty NW winds. Winds over the southern waters Saturday evening
could approach 30 knots. High pressure moves in on Sunday and winds
diminish.

Freezing spray remains a concern early this morning. Have not had
any reports yet, but the potential certainly exists given water
temps, winds, and thermal profiles near the surface. Please use
caution if on the waters.

SCA conditions are likely to develop across most of the waters
Monday night into Tuesday. Gusts of 20-25 knots are most likely,
though some of the open bay waters could approach 30 knots Tuesday
night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low water is expected to be an issue during the low tide this
morning, with water levels around -2FT MLLW in some spots. After
that, water levels begin to slowly climb through Saturday as wind
lighten and turn southerly. While water levels are still expected to
remain lower than normal, there will not be any low water concerns
after this morning`s low tide. A surge of northwest winds return
Saturday night through Sunday that will bring water levels back
down. Though, this looks to be short lived with water levels rising
again during the week as winds become light.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for MDZ001.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for MDZ016>018.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ503.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ055>057.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for VAZ036-037-508.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB/CAS
NEAR TERM...CPB/CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CAS/KRR
MARINE...CAS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR