028
FXUS61 KLWX 151801
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
201 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area today. Canadian high pressure
will build behind the front Thursday and Friday before shifting
offshore this weekend. Rain chances return with a cold front Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A moisture starved cold front will pass through the region this
afternoon. Only real tangible wx from passing will be a
reinforcement of NW winds of 20-25 mph. Breezy and warm
conditions are expected behind the front as highs reach the low
to mid 70s this afternoon, which is ~5 or so degrees above mid-
October norms. Winds should decrease this evening.

Notably cooler tonight with lows in the 40s for most, with
lower to mid 30s in the Alleghenies. Areas of frost are possible
in the elevated sheltered valleys, but there appears to be
enough wind through the night to prevent widespread frost from
developing. Areas that do see frost likely already saw it this
fall. Opted to not issue a Frost Advisory at this time given
current wind forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A rather large area of Canadian High Pressure will dominate the
wx across the NE US to end the week. Dry and much cooler
conditions are expected, with highs in the 60s each day.
Elevated winds remain on Thu as winds gust around 20 mph in the
afternoon, then light winds for Fri as the high settles
overhead.

Thu night is still expected to be the coldest night of the week
when lows drop to the 30s across most of the area, except in
the low 40s east of I-95. Typical sheltered high elevation
valleys likely make a run into the 20s, and would not be
surprised if parts of the Shenandoah Valley fall into the 20s as
well with the high overhead, calm winds, and Tds in the upper
20s. Widespread frost and/or freezing temperatures looks likely
along and west of the Blue Ridge. Have issued a Freeze Watch for
locales west of the Blue Ridge. Frost concerns spread eastward
towards the I-95 corridor. Frost Advisories are likely needed
further east in future shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warmer temps return this weekend along with the chance of
showers and t-storms. Most locations should see dry conditions
through Sun morning due to the influence of broad high pressure
departing off the Carolinas. A potent upper level trough and
strong cold front look to cross the area late Sun into Mon with
high pressure set to return by the middle of next week.

Sat appears to be the best of the two weekend days as high
pressure drifts off the VA/NC coast. This will allow for S to
Sw`ly return flow across the region boosting temps into the low
to mid 70s for most. Upper 60s in NE MD.

High pressure will continue offshore late Sat night into Sun
morning. Meanwhile, a cutoff area of low pressure will work from
the upper Midwest toward the eastern Great lakes with a digging
trough working south and east across the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. A potent cold front will accompany the trough as the
cutoff low ejects north and east into the eastern Great Lakes
region. This front looks to cross the area sometime late Sun
into early Mon bringing the next chance of measurable rainfall.
Continued uncertainty remains in regards to the placement/tilt
of the trough and timing of the front as it swings through.
Timing may have slowed down to more of a Sun evening/night
passage.

With that said, the risk for t-storms may not be out of the
question including the potential for severe weather. Of course
this will revolve around the timing of the front and how much
instability can be maximized. Basically, a high shear to low/no
CAPE environment. If the ingredients can be maximized we could
be looking a a few stronger storms or at least a broken line of
gusty showers pushing through the region. CIPS/CSU guidance
highlights this threat, and SPC has an honorable mention in
their extended outlook. This will be something that we closely
monitor in the coming days ahead.

Shower activity could linger into Mon in northwest flow as the
front works east at the resultant closed low departs for eastern
Canada. Skies will gradually clear Mon afternoon with breezy
conditions expected as the front departs east and high pressure
returns from the southeast U.S. High pressure will return Tue
into Wed with temps set to warm back to normal or just above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of this week.
Gusty N to NW winds expected today and Thu, from late morning
to late afternoon, with gusts around 20-25 knots. Light winds
Fri as the high settles overhead.

VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through Sun
morning. Sub-VFR conditions return with a potent cold front
Sun afternoon into the night. Showers and perhaps a few
t-storms look to accompany this front as it pushes through. VFR
conditions return Mon and Tue next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move through the region today, then Canadian high
pressure builds in through the end of the week. A surge of
northerly winds behind the front tonight will bring gusts up to
25-30 knots over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay. After
that, gusts will mainly be between 20-25 knots across the waters
through Fri morning. Fri during the day there remains some
uncertainty with the strength of the gradient and inherent
winds. Southern waters likely need extended at least partially
into the day Fri, though uncertainness remain with northward
extent of SCA gusts. Will let future shifts evaluate. Winds
diminish below SCA levels by Fri evening.

No marine hazards are expected Sat through Sun morning. Sub-SCA
S`ly winds will remain between 10 to 15 kts. SCA southerly
channeling returns ahead of the front Sun with gusty west to
northwest SCA level flow behind the front Sun night into Mon next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thu afternoon due
to the combination of gusty winds and low RH values. NW winds
could gust around 20 to 25 mph along and north of Route 50, with
gusts of 15 to 20 mph to the S. Minimum RH values are forecast
to be 25-35%, with the driest in the central Shenandoah Valley.
Based on available data, fuels appear a tad above thresholds as
well in terms of moisture.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for MDZ003-501-502-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ025>031-503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB
FIRE WEATHER...


.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
     Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for MDZ003-501-502-509-510.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ025>031-503-504.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...CPB
MARINE...CPB
FIRE WEATHER...