832
FXUS61 KLWX 091845
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass to the our south tonight into Monday.
Another high briefly builds over the region on Tuesday, leading
to well above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions.
Multiple weak fronts will pass through the region Wednesday
through Thursday. High pressure returns toward the end of the
week, followed by a strong frontal system next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
We seem to have tapped into a bit more moisture aloft as a piece
of shortwave energy swings through. All this has really done is
increase clouds across the region more than was originally
forecast, so made that change this afternoon. Temperatures and
low RHs still on track at this time with readings in the 50s for
temperatures and 20s to low 30s for RH.

As this upper-level trough dives south of our region into the
SE US and a weaker shortwave passes to the north over northern
PA and New York State, this will place our region in the
subsidence zone between the two systems later this afternoon
into the evening. This should lead to gradual clearing of these
wave clouds. The gradient between the two systems has lead to
some gusty winds with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon north
of I-66, and that should continue through around 5 PM or so
before tapering off. Low RHs combined with gusty west winds and
continued dry and warm conditions have prompted us to issue a
Special Weather Statement highlighting the elevated threat for
rapid fire spread this afternoon. The afternoon SPC Fire Weather
Outlook for today actually included an "elevated risk" as well,
which is rather rare for this region (maybe a few times per
year).

Winds will taper off late this afternoon into the evening prior
to sunset, before rapidly dropping to near calm by 9-10 PM. Overnight
lows will be near normal in the 30s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level low will continue to pass off to the south of
our region on Monday as a SFC low moving along a cold front
brings heavy rain to the SE US. Our region will remain on the
northern edge of this system leading to light winds and mostly
clear skies. Afternoon temperatures will likely be 5 to 10
degrees warmer than Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Minimum RH values during the afternoon remain low, but in the
absence of much wind, shouldn`t be a volatile fire weather day.

Dry conditions will continue into the evening with overnight
lows in the 20s.

A cold front associated with a low pressure passing over the
northern Great Lakes region is forecast to drop south through our
region on Tuesday. A westerly flow aloft will keep this frontal
passage moisture starved with only a subtle wind shift to show the
boundary passage. The warming trend that began this weekend will
continue into Tuesday with high temperatures creeping up into the
mid 70s which is around 20 degrees above normal. With such warm
temperatures, mostly sunny skies, RHs in the mid 20s to low 30s,
and perhaps some gusty winds all in play, have to watch Tuesday
afternoon`s fire weather potential. Thinking the best chance
would be for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, where winds
look to be highest.

Behind the frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build
overhead which will lead to a slight cool down as we approach the
middle parts of this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will prevail through the end of the week. A backdoor
front will slide north to south Wednesday, then lift back north
as a warm front late Thursday. There is an outside chance of a
shower as the front lifts back north at the end of the week.

A powerful area of low pressure and strong associated cold front
will develop over the Plains later this week, then track east by
next weekend. Current guidance has a strong FROPA next Sunday.
Increasing moisture ahead of the front combined with increasing
low-level winds raises concerns for severe thunderstorms, but
the magnitude of the threat will depend on the exact timing of
FROPA and how much instability is able to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. The main aviation
concern will be gusty winds today with gusts as high 25 to 30 knots
this afternoon out of the west. Light winds return Monday and
Tuesday.

VFR Wed-Thu with a backdoor front wavering nearby. NE to SE winds
look generally 10 kts or less attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft conditions are in effect through this evening.
SubSCA conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday.

NE winds Wednesday will become SE Wednesday night into Thursday.
Some gusts of 15-20 kts are possible as this wind shift occurs.

Given the forecast for warm temperatures in the coming days, it
is likely that there will be a large increase in mariners on
local waterways this coming week. However, remember that just
because the air is warm, it doesn`t mean that the water is warm.
Mariners should be aware of the threats of boating in cold
water and take the proper precautions to protect yourselves and
your passengers. Visit weather.gov/safety/coldwater for more
info.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions are expected the afternoon hours with west to
northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph (20 to 25 mph above 2000 ft
elevation), with gusts up to 30 mph (40 mph above 2000 feet
elevation). Minimum RH values are expected to drop to 20 to 30
percent east of the Allegheny Front where high temperatures will
peak in the 50s and 60s. Conditions will be mainly sunny. This
will result in an elevated threat for the rapid spread of fires
this afternoon across much of the area. One limiting factor is
fuel moisture given wetting rain last Wednesday for much of the
region, but finer fuels will continue to rapidly dry out.

Lighter winds are expected Monday, but with continued dry
conditions and temperatures jumping into the 70s.

For Tuesday, several things bring cause for concern when it
comes to fire weather. Highs are expected to be in the 70s (and
in westerly flow we could even overperform), mostly sunny
skies, RHs in the mid 20s to low 30s, and winds are expected to
be elevated. Thinking the best chance would be for areas along
and west of the Blue Ridge, where winds look to be highest. By
Tuesday, there will be no question regarding the available
fuels to burn. Being that it is mid-March, and the above
outlined conditions, this may be the perfect scenario for yet
another day of increased fire danger.

Looking to the rest of the week ahead, Rho will gradually rise
in south to southwest flow ahead of an approaching frontal
system late week. Winds will be gradually increasing each day
through the end of the week. Do think RH values will be
slightly higher. However, fuels will have undergone several days
of warm and dry conditions, so further assessment will be
needed as we get closer in time towards the end of the week.

Significant wetting rain is looking more likely next weekend.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL/JMG
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/JMG
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...CJL