Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
717 FXUS61 KLWX 280800 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions today with cooler than average temperatures expected. A cold front will cross the region Friday bringing passing clouds and perhaps a few spotty showers. High pressure wedges in for the weekend into early next week with a passing shower or two over the central Blue Ridge as onshore upslope flow increases. Low pressure approaches from the south by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will continue to build across the area today. Cooler than average temperatures and dry conditions will continue. A shortwave trough and its affiliated surface cold front will approach the region tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and sprinkles could evolve tonight. Highs in the 60s in the mountains, and middle to upper 70s elsewhere to the east. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains, and upper 50s to lower 60s to the east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will push across the region Friday into Friday evening. A couple additional showers could accompany the front during this period but coverage looks widely scattered. Highs will be similar to today, if not a few degrees milder. Temperatures Friday night will become cooler than Thursday night with cool air advection behind the front. Lows Friday night could get as cold as the upper 30s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast expected to remain dry with cooler than normal temps expected to continue throughout period. Expect light N to NE flow Sunday with light onshore flow early next week. This is in association with building high pressure over the Great Lakes that will gradually wedge south Monday into Tuesday. This high pressure system will eventually drift east into the interior Northeast and toward northern New England Wednesday through Friday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will remain to our south along a stalled boundary over the southeast U.S. The progression of this low pressure system to the north will be halted by the wedge through at least Tuesday before an advancement north and east along the coastal Carolinas by the middle and end of next week. As of now, little to no impact is expected from this system in the local area outside of some shower activity mainly along and east of I-95 Wednesday and Thursday next week. A strong cold front will eject out of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday before crossing late next week. This will lead to our next substantial rain chances areawide within the long term period. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal throughout the second half of the weekend into much next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the upper 60s and low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Increased onshore flow from wedging high pressure will further confidence for cooler than normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday next week. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions through Friday night. Increasing clouds are likely ahead of a cold front, then along the cold front tonight. A shower could occur tonight. A shower is possible in spots Friday; otherwise, it will be drier behind the passing front Friday night. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into early next week with wedging high pressure nearby. There are some hints at the potential for sub-VFR CIGs during the late evening and early morning hours Saturday south of MRB and west of CHO. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into early next week with wedging high pressure nearby. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are possible this afternoon into Friday morning, perhaps late afternoon to shortly after midnight. Will evaluate shortly with the newest model data. Another period of SCA conditions may be possible Friday night behind a cold front, but current guidance looks somewhat marginal. No marine hazards are expected this weekend. Sub-SCA level north to northeast winds are expected throughout the weekend as high pressure builds from the north. No marine hazards are expected this weekend with N to NE winds Sunday becoming more E`ly by Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Southerly flow ahead of a cold front may drive water levels close to minor flooding at Annapolis this evening. The flow should be brief enough to preclude flooding elsewhere, though the typically more vulnerable spots will have to be monitored. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...CPB AVIATION...KLW/CPB MARINE...KLW/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...