579
FXUS61 KLWX 100759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area through Saturday. A
strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night, but with
minimal rain chances. Colder temperatures are expected by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will build southeastward from southeast Michigan
today and tonight. Expect light northwest winds this morning,
along with mainly clear skies, that could influence areas of
front in the mountains and portions of the Shenandoah Valley. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for these areas until 9am this
morning.

Winds will increase midday into this afternoon with respect to the
building high pressure to the northwest and diurnal heating.
Thereafter, winds will diminish going into tonight. Dry conditions
and below average temperatures expected today and tonight. High
temperatures lower to middle 60s. Lows tonight near 30 to the lower
30s in the west and lower to upper 30s elsewhere from west to east,
respectively. There could be a few 40 degree readings in the far
eastern zones.

Considering we will see diminishing winds and clear skies tonight,
as high pressure builds overhead, a Freeze Watch has been issued for
the western one-third of our region from the mountains to the
central Shenandoah Valley from 1am to 9am late tonight into early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the region Friday through Saturday
night. A Freeze Watch is in effect early Friday morning; otherwise,
dry conditions with slight below average to average temperatures
Friday and Friday night. Highs middle to upper 60s. Lows lower to
middle 40s.

Dry conditions continue Saturday into Saturday night with above
average temperatures. Highs will modify into the lower to middle
70s. Lows will reach the lower 50s for most with upper 50s in the
metros.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will strengthen across the Great Lakes on Sunday as a
trough digs southward from Canada. Above normal temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s are forecast in the southerly flow ahead of this
system, although a stalled backdoor front may result in cooler
conditions northeast of the Potomac. Any light warm advection
showers will likely be confined to the western mountains. The
trailing cold front will push through Sunday evening or overnight.
Rain chances have trended up a little, although amounts still look
to be light.

Gusty winds will usher in much cooler air in the front`s wake on
Monday. A large trough will evolve over the eastern US, with
specific details adding some uncertainty to sky forecasts and any
additional precipitation chances thereafter. Light upslope
showers seem most plausible, and can`t rule out some snowflakes on
the highest peaks as 850mb temperatures near 0C. Tuesday and
Wednesday will feel autumnal as gusty winds continue and high
temperatures only reach the mid 50s to lower 60s. Frost/freeze
potential remains in question as the surface high lags over the
upper Midwest, so winds and clouds could keep temperatures up. The
trough axis does begin to move east Wednesday night, which will
allow the high to build closer.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions today through Saturday night. Winds light this
morning, increasing northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots by
this afternoon, diminishing tonight. Winds calm to light and
variable Friday morning, increasing northwest 10 knots Friday
midday, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Friday afternoon.
Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday into Saturday night.

Southerly winds may gust to 20 kt on Sunday, with a low chance of a
shower late in the day. A cold front will shift winds to the west
Sunday night, with gusts in excess of 20 kt possible Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories are in effect today and tonight. No marine
hazards expected Friday through Saturday night. Winds light and
variable this morning becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 20 to
25 knots midday and this afternoon. Winds diminishing tonight then
becoming northwest 10 knots Friday, then southwest Friday night.
Winds becoming northwest again on Saturday and Saturday night around
5 to 10 knots.

Southerly flow will strengthen Sunday ahead of the next low pressure
system, then shift to the west Sunday night as the cold front
passes. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed during this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are dropping this morning due to northerly winds. There
will be two opportunities for brief surges to near-minor flood
levels along sensitive shoreline: (1) a snap back as winds lighten
late Friday, and (2) Sunday as southerly winds increase ahead of the
next low pressure system.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001-501-502.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     MDZ001-501.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>027-029-
     030-503-504.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     VAZ025>027-029-503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050-051-055-
     501>506.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     538-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS