395
FXUS61 KLWX 220221
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will track overhead along a frontal
boundary tonight. High pressure will build into area for Sunday
and Monday. An area of low pressure will track to our northwest
during the middle of next week, causing a strong cold front to
move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The 00Z/7 PM surface analysis shows a wavy frontal zone across
the Ozarks while extending eastward across the lower Ohio Valley
to just south of U.S. 50 over the Mid-Atlantic region. The
boundary approaching from the south across the local area has
been migrating northward as a warm front during the past
several hours. This boundary is fairly well defined with
temperatures/dew points in the 50s to south, and readings in the
40s north of the Mason-Dixon Line. A parent shortwave is also
evident on IR imagery over central/eastern Missouri. This
shortwave will start to shear out and rapidly track eastward
through the overnight hours, causing a weak area of low
pressure to also track eastward along the wavy surface boundary.
Warm advection driven ascent to the north of the nearby warm
front will lead to a period of light rain that will last through
much of the night tonight.

At the moment, WSR-88D radar imagery shows a moderate band of
rain tracking eastward across Hampshire and Allegany counties.
However, some of this enhancement is likely driven by bright
banding (i.e., the melting layer seen on radar). Otherwise,
lighter activity has begun to fill in back across Pendleton and
Grant counties in West Virginia. This should eventually reach
the metro regions by around 11 PM-midnight.

This eventually sets the stages for light rain to occur off and
on over the course of the night. Temperatures will drop
slightly this evening and then hold relatively steady in the
mid 40s to low 50s (Alleghenies low 40s) through the remainder
of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will continue on and off through tomorrow morning, with
the last of the rain finally clearing southern Maryland by mid-
afternoon. Rainfall totals with this system should generally be
around a quarter to a half of an inch for most, although
isolated slightly higher totals may be possible. Given the
ongoing drought conditions, this should be a beneficial rainfall
for all.

Skies will begin to clear out later tomorrow afternoon, with
some sunshine even possible just before sunset. High
temperatures tomorrow will reach into the 50s to around 60 (40s
mountains).

A shortwave and associated clipper low will track to our north
across Quebec/Ontario on Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will
build to our west across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Despite the
system tracking to our north, skies are expected to remain
mostly sunny. However, the system will drive a reinforcing cold
front southward through the area. This will cause winds to pick
up out of the northwest later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 50s and
lower 60s on Sunday (upper 40s mountains), before dropping back
into the 30s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions continue Monday with surface high pressure and upper
level ridging building overhead. As the area of high pressure shifts
offshore through the day and into the overnight, southerly flow
ushers in moisture and warmer air. High temperatures will be in the
50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday with overnight low temperatures
dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday night. Tuesday
night will be noticeably warmer with overnight lows in the upper 40s
to low 50s. As moisture increases due to southerly flow and an
approaching low pressure system, precipitation chances return
Tuesday across the forecast area.

A warm front associated with a low pressure system tracking across
the Mississippi River valley will lift north through the forecast
area on Wednesday, yielding the warmest day of the long term period
and persisting precipitation chances. High temperatures rise into
the 60s for most with higher elevations staying in the 50s. As the
aforementioned low pressure system tracks north of the forecast
area, the associated cold front pushes through Wednesday afternoon.
High pressure builds in from the west in the wake of the cold front
with noticeably cooler temperatures expected. Overnight low
temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the 30s to low 40s. On
Thursday, dry conditions are expected with high temperatures staying
in the 40s and low 50s (30s mountains). Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 20s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions are VFR at the moment, but ceilings are expected to
lower as rain moves into the area overnight. IFR to LIFR
ceilings and rain are expected during the second half of the
night through Saturday morning. Reduced visibilities may also
be possible at times tonight. Conditions should gradually
improve back to VFR by late Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions
will then persist through Sunday night.

Winds will be light out of the south today and remain light or
calm overnight. Winds will then turn out of the north late
tonight behind a cold front and stay northerly through the day
Saturday into Saturday night. West winds are expected Sunday
morning, before winds shift to out of the northwest and become
gusty behind a reinforcing cold front later Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night.

South winds blow 5 to 10 knots Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
shifts overhead. VFR conditions are expected on Monday with
precipitation chances leading to possible restrictions on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southerly winds are expected over the waters today. Winds
will turn northerly late tonight as a cold front passes over the
waters. Northerly winds will persist through the day Saturday into
Saturday night. Gusts may briefly near low-end SCA values
Saturday afternoon. Winds will turn out of the west on Sunday
morning, and then out of the northwest Sunday afternoon behind a
reinforcing cold front. Small Craft Advisory level gusts appear
likely behind this front late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night, and a few low-end Gale gusts can`t be entirely ruled out.

Southerly winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria on Monday
with high pressure overhead. Winds near SCA criteria, mainly in the
southern portions of the waters, Tuesday afternoon with southerly
winds gusting around 15 knots.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...BRO/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/KJP
MARINE...AVS/BRO/KJP