714
FXUS61 KLWX 091926
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
226 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will move offshore late tonight as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The warm front will lift
across the area Sunday night as low pressure moves from the
Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. A
trailing cold front will cross the region Monday, then a
secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday. High
pressure will follow for the middle of the week before another
frontal system crosses Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure will move offshore late tonight. Mid-high level
clouds will increase/thicken tonight, particularly after
midnight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to near 40 west
of I-95 given dry air mass and ideal radiational cooling
conditions early.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A warm front will approach the area on Sunday. Rain should
arrive shortly after daybreak across the Appalachian region and
spread east during the afternoon hours across the rest of the
area. Guidance shows generally between a quarter to half inch of
rain across much of the area, except lesser amounts to the
south. Rain continues through the evening before it begins to
taper off late Sunday night with passage of warm front. Overall,
the guidance has trended quicker showing the precip exiting by
daybreak Monday.

The trailing cold front will pass through the area Monday morning.
A mild day is expected Monday under gusty W to NW winds and
abundant sunshine. A secondary dry cold frontal passage is
expected early on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure over the Midwest US and Great Lakes on Tuesday will
move eastward toward New England late Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry
conditions, a gusty northwest wind, and slightly below average
temperatures expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Highs in the upper
50s to near 60. Lows Tuesday night in the lower 30s.

Through the day Wednesday, dry conditions and cooler daytime
temperatures are expected across the region. The movement of
the high to the east will allow for our winds to shift from
north to southeast rather rapidly ahead of an approaching cold
front. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s.

The approaching cold front could spawn a few showers mainly in the
west and northwest Wednesday night. The front will be moving very
quickly so any rain showers may be short-lived and rather isolated
in coverage Wednesday night. Lows not as cold with temperatures in
the upper 30s to near 40.

The chance for rain showers lingers Thursday morning and perhaps to
midday Thursday. Not everyone will get a shower. Thursday should be
the warmer of the four days with highs near 60 to lower 60s. Through
Thursday afternoon and much of the day Friday, drier air pushes in
quickly behind the front as a Pacific origin high pressure center
builds eastward along the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. High
temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 with low temperatures
Thursday night near 40 to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Increasing high and mid level clouds tonight. Light rain arrives
Sunday afternoon. but flight restrictions are not anticipated
at this time. P6SM OVC050 and S winds around 10kt.

Some flight restrictions, mainly MVFR, are possible Sunday
night in lingering showers. Showers depart by daybreak Monday
with SW winds becoming W and then NW gusting up to 20 kt Monday.

VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds northwest 10
to 15 knots gusts to 20 knots Tuesday, diminishing Tuesday night.
Winds shifting quickly north to southeast 5 to 10 knots ahead of an
approaching cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night. Chance of a
few showers into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA conditions are possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning
in southerly winds and again Monday night into Wednesday,
Small craft advisories likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
northwest 10 to 20 knots gusts to 25 knots through the period.
No marine hazards Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds north
becoming southeast around 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...

A record dry spell continues across the Mid-Atlantic. Below is a
list of the longest stretches of consecutive days with no
measurable precipitation observed. This will end tomorrow as rain
is expected at all of the climate sites.

.SITE..DCA, BWI, IAD, MRB have set records for longest dry days...
.DCA...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 34 days (ending 2007-10-18)
.BWI...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 32 days (ending 1963-10-31)
.IAD...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 32 days (ending 1963-10-31)
.MRB...Current stretch: 33 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 30 days (ending 1988-07-09)

.NAK...Current stretch: 33 days (ending 2024-11-09) - tied for 2nd
       Record: 34 days (ending 2001-11-19)
.HGR...Current stretch: 27 days (ending 2024-11-09) - tied for 6th
       Record: 32 days (ending 1913-11-13)
.CHO...Current stretch: 35 days (ended 2024-11-06) - ranked 3rd
       Record: 43 days (ending 2000-11-08)
       CHO observed 0.03 inches of rain on Nov 07, ending the streak

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
CLIMATE...LFR