179
FXUS61 KLWX 031507
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1007 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic region as an area of
low pressure develops off the Carolinas and moves northeast out
to sea tonight. High pressure will return Tuesday into
Wednesday, then another cold front will cross the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will briefly build
over the area again Thursday into Friday before another cold
front approaches next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light rain showers continue to dissipate and track eastward,
mainly over southern Maryland and the Chesapeake Bay. Visible
satellite loop as of 10AM shows a cloud deck slowly tracking
eastward along the I-95 corridor with clouds moving towards the
forecast area just to our west. In between, sunny skies can be
observed. Outside of the Alleghenies, cloud cover is expected to
dissipate today. No changes were made to the forecast with the
previous forecast discussion located below.

Some light rain will spread northeastward across southern
Maryland and areas along and east of I-95 this morning. The low
pressure responsible for this rain will continue to develop
through midday but gradually move out to sea by later this
afternoon. Dry conditions and increased cloud cover can be
expected elsewhere. High temperatures this afternoon will be in
the 50s and 60s.

A cold front is expected to cross the area tonight. This is a
front, associated with a separate low pressure system that will
move south and east across eastern Canada and parts of the
Northeast U.S. Winds will become northwest tonight as high
pressure builds behind this front. Some gusty winds are
possible immediately behind the front this evening, especially
over the higher terrain where breezy conditions could linger
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A downsloping flow is favorable to bring down some dry air
through the day Tuesday, so depending on how strong the winds
are Tuesday could be a Fire Wx day (see section below). Highs
Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s as well.

An area of low pressure will slide by well to our north on
Wednesday, pushing a dry cold front through the region into
Wednesday night. Ahead of this boundary, gusty southerly flow is
expected across the region, with gusts around 20-30 mph. A very dry
air mass ahead of this front will yield very little moisture over
the region, with only a slight chance of precip in the forecast over
the Alleghenies. Fire weather concerns could linger into
Wednesday as well. See details in the Fire Weather discussion
below. Temperatures will be above average, reaching the upper
60s to near 70 (50s to low 60s in the mountains).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive high-amplitude pattern persists across the country.
This carries a series of disturbances from the north-central U.S.
toward the Eastern Seaboard throughout the late week into weekend
timeframe. Heading into Sunday, a more formidable system digs toward
the Great Lakes which would offer a notable pattern shift into the
following work week. Based on comparison between the current
deterministic models, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with this
particular system. Global ensembles do agree on the progression of
the trough, but with differences in the depth/strength of this
system.

The overall synoptic pattern will bring the next cold front through
the area by late Friday, with an additional frontal system for late
in the weekend. Rain chances are to increase the second half of
Friday into Saturday morning. Some upslope precipitation is possible
in the wake along the Allegheny Front. Further rain chances loom for
later in the weekend as the mentioned stronger system approaches
from the west. The mildest day of this stretch would be on Saturday
as highs rise well into the 60s before falling on Sunday as frontal
precipitation arrives. Where the growing season continues (mainly
along and east of I-95), some threat of frosty conditions are
possible both Thursday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue today for most terminals. Should some
light rain move into MTN, BWI, and DCA this morning, then MVFR
ceilings could evolve. Otherwise, VFR conditions will evolve
with a cold front approaching later today and tonight. Winds
light west/northwest this morning.

A cold front will pass by this evening bringing winds out of
the northwest and VFR conditions. Gusts of 15-25 kts are
possible with the frontal passage, possibly briefly slightly
higher this evening with more occasional gusts overnight. VFR
and northwest breezes gusting 15-20 kts are anticipated Tuesday
with lighter winds Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday. There will be a notable
cold frontal passage late Wednesday into Wednesday night with an
outside chance of a shower at MRB, however. This front will
shift winds from the south Wednesday to the northwest Wednesday
night. Daytime speeds of 10-15 kts are anticipated.

VFR conditions are expected on Thursday as high pressure pushes
through the area. Rain chances return for the second half of Friday
which may support some restrictions at times. Expect northwesterly
winds on Thursday before turning southerly ahead of the next cold
front by Friday. As this occurs, gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds this morning. A cold front will cross by
later this afternoon kicking up winds out of the northwest. A
brief period of sporadic gusts 30-35 knots can`t be ruled out
immediately behind the front with forecast soundings indicating
such winds around 1500 feet above the surface with a very
shallow stable layer and notable pressure rises this evening.
Residual SCA caliber northwesterlies are expected through
midday Tuesday, possibly a bit longer. Lighter winds are
expected Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday could
result in gusts of 15-20 knots. The cold front should come through
mainly dry Wednesday night, turning winds to the northwest.

Behind the mid-week cold front, some residual breezy northwesterly
winds may bring advisory conditions to the waters on Thursday
morning. Winds drop off a bit before ramping back up on Friday as
southerly channeling ensues. Gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are possible
over the waterways which would support Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry frontal boundary will push through the region today, with
a very dry air mass following in its wake on Tuesday. Winds
will be out of the W to NW on Tuesday with gusts around 15-20
mph, mainly north of the I-66 corridor. Further south, and down
into the Shenandoah Valley, winds will be closer to 8 to 14 mph
or so. At any rate, this will be just enough wind, that when
paired with RHs potentially into the teens and low 20s in a
reasonable driest case scenario, causes some concern for
potential hazardous conditions for wildfire spread. Recent rains
have certainly been beneficial, but by this point we will be
several days removed from that. Some breezy days have further
allowed for drying of fine fuels in the region, especially when
paired with the long term dryness. While this isn`t a slam dunk
day in terms of high end fire weather, it is certainly looking
like it could be one of the driest days we have seen this fall
so far.

Winds will pick up substantially on Wednesday and turn out of the
south. Typically this should result in a substantial increase
in RH, but that isn`t always the case, as will be seen on
Wednesday. Current forecasts call for afternoon RH values in the
mid to upper 30s in the valleys, owing to a very dry air mass
in the source region of that southerly flow. When paired with
20-30 mph southerly wind gusts, this could result in another
potentially hazardous day for wildfire spread.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW/CJL
MARINE...BRO/KLW/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...CJL