161
FXUS61 KLWX 070859
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains nearby today with continued cool
temperatures. A cold front will cross the area this evening
with an upper level low pressure system passing to the south
late tonight into Monday. Both of these systems could bring
some light snow showers to the mountains and to the I-64
corridor. Brief high pressure builds again Tuesday before
another area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the area
during the middle to latter portions of the week. This brings
renewed cold air to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The current surface pattern consists of a broad, but weak area
of high pressure across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.
With the boundary layer decoupling and residual low-level
moisture east of the Blue Ridge, an expansive area of dense fog
has formed. Given temperatures holding steady in the upper 20s
to low 30s, much of this is coming in the form of a freezing
fog. Consequently, Freezing Fog Advisories are in effect until 9
AM across Nelson and Albemarle counties up across the Virginia
Piedmont region into the D.C. metro area (including southern
Maryland). In the past hour, observational trends showed this
expanding into the Capital Beltway region which resulted in a
northward expansion of these advisories. With these fog droplets
freezing on contact with surfaces, ensure to exercise caution
when traveling while these advisories are in effect.

Elsewhere, a band of low to mid-level clouds remain near the
Mason-Dixon Line and along the Allegheny Front. Like other
locations, temperatures are holding steady in the mid 20s to
near freezing.

A wavy frontal zone currently arcing across the lower Great
Lakes back into northern Illnois/Missouri will make its way
eastward today. The driver of this system is a shortwave aloft
which is slated to move through New England later this evening.
With the forcing displaced off to the north, any upslope showers
should be brief and of low impact to the Aleghenies. Total snow
amounts will likely be around a coating to perhaps a half inch
in spots.

Before the frontal system tracks through this evening, a light
return southerly flow will help raise today`s temperatures into
the low/mid 40s (warmest across the Allegheny mountain valleys).
For the mountain locales, 30s will be more commonplace. Clouds
are expected to linger into tonight ahead of an impulse digging
across the Tennessee Valley. Winds also pick up overnight behind
the cold front with northerly gusts to around 15 to 25 mph.
Forecast low temperatures will mainly be in the 20s, with teens
in the mountains. Some light warm advection snow approaches the
Potomac Highlands just before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The mentioned system crossing the Tennessee Valley reaches the
Carolinas by midday Monday. Ample ascent ahead of this wave will
have access to a cold post-frontal air mass. As such, snow
should be the dominant precipitation type as the system sweeps
across southern Virginia. The northern extent of this
precipitation shield is uncertain. A preponderance of the
models cut things off in the vicinity of I-64 while extending
back into the Potomac Highlands. However, occasional high-
resolution models attempt to lift this axis toward I-66. For
now, will cap the northern extent of accumulations around I-64
with around a half inch to inch possible. Given cold
temperatures, much of this should stick on untreated surfaces.

Relative to the previous day, Monday is likely to be much colder
in the wake of the frontal passage. Forecast highs will mainly
range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with upper teens to mid 20s
in the mountains. This is accompanied by north-northeasterly
gusts to around 20 to 25 mph underneath mostly cloudy skies. Any
light snow should exit the local area by just after dark.

A strong dome of Canadian high pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes on Monday evening/night. This will set the stages for a
cold night across the region. Northerly winds are forecast to
diminish in strength into the night setting the stages for ample
radiational cooling. The latest forecast package calls for
widespread lows between 10 to 15 degrees, with upper teens to
low 20s along and east of I-95. A bit of lingering wind will
lower wind chills to near 0 degrees across the mountains.

Within the active northwesterly cyclonic flow regime, an
additional shortwave races across the Great Lakes and Mid-
Atlantic region on Tuesday. Moisture is rather scant so the only
real impact is an increase in cloud cover. Underneath this mix
of clouds and sun, the forecast remains chilly with highs in
the 30s to low 40s (mountains in the upper 20s to mid 30s).
Despite a shift to southerly winds on Tuesday, temperatures do
not rise much as 1000-500 dm thicknesses only rise by around 5
dm over a 24-hour period.

As high pressure exits offshore Tuesday evening, some warm
advection precipitation begins to unfold over western Maryland
on Tuesday night. This likely comes in the form of a rain/snow
mix depending on temperatures. Area-wide overnight temperatures
will be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad upper level trough with numerous reinforcing shortwave-troughs
is expected to dominate the flow across the eastern CONUS during the
middle and second half of next week. The first of a series of low
pressure systems will move across the eastern Great Lks Wednesday
and bring the risk of rain and snow showers to the Appalachian
region and northern MD, turning into snow showers in the mountains
Wed afternoon and evening. The snow shower activity will continue
over the mountains into Thu morning where several inches of
accumulation may occur.

A second area of low pressure is expected to track from the TN River
Valley and across North Carolina late Thu night into Fri and may
bring some light snows to the local area and maybe rain across
central Virginia. This will be another fast moving system similar to
the one Friday morning. Much colder air will follow behind this
system for Fri night into Sat with 850 mb temps fcst to plummet to -
15C and daytime highs struggling to reach 30F.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main concern early this morning is a broad area of dense
freezing fog which extends from KCHO up to KDCA. This has
remained rather persistent as it has set up east of the Blue
Ridge. While KIAD occasional has seen some MVFR visibilities,
the main threat of more pronounced restrictions have been to the
south and east. Expect this area of dense fog to gradually erode
by around 9 AM. This eventually gives way to a mix of clouds and
sun with light southerly winds.

An upstream cold front arrives later this evening which yields
a shift to north to northwesterly winds late tonight. Gusts
increase just ahead of daybreak while continuing through much of
Monday. Afternoon gusts could reach 20 to 25 knots, perhaps
higher at times during peak vertical mixing. VFR conditions are
expected on Monday, but some sub-VFR conditions are possible at
KCHO as light snow tracks near I-64.

Winds turn light on Monday night as Canadian high pressure
builds to the north. As this anticyclone exits offshore, a
return southerly flow ensues for Tuesday with afternoon gusts
to around 15 to 20 knots. VFR conditions continue in advance of
the next weather maker arriving by mid-week.

VFR conditions Wed with a risk of rain showers, mainly northern
terminals. Light snow possible late Thu night into Fri, possibly
rain at CHO. Shifting winds Wed night with a frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
The area of dense fog which has formed east of the Blue Ridge
also extends into the tidal Potomac as well as lower portions of
the Chesapeake Bay. Consequently, Dense Fog Advisories are in
place across these locations until 9 AM this morning.
Visibilities should gradually improve as this fog lifts with
daytime heating.

While winds remain on the lighter side owing to high pressure
over the waters, a cold front tracks through late this evening
yielding gustier winds in the wake. Expect a shift to northerly
winds late tonight while turning more north-northeasterly on
Monday. Gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are looking likely during
this period. Small Craft Advisories will be required during this
period which may even include occasional gales over the southern
waters. Winds diminish into Monday night as Canadian high
pressure builds to the north. Another ramp up is likely by
Tuesday evening/night given southerly channeling effects. Small
Craft Advisories will again be needed.

SCA conditions Wed into Thu and again Fri.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ016>018.
VA...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ036>039-050-051-055>057-502-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ534>537-
     542-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO
MARINE...LFR/BRO