025
FXUS61 KLWX 070852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region later today. High
pressure will then build from the Great Plains to the East
Coast through Saturday. An area of low pressure could bring
widespread rainfall Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A slow-moving cold front will push southward across the region
today into tonight. Scattered showers are expected as this pushes
through, but no one area is likely to get more than a few hundredths
to a tenth of an inch of QPF. Some slight instability across the
central Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont could lead to a
thunderstorm or two in these areas. These areas could see maybe
a couple tenths of QPF if we do get a thunderstorm. Highs Today
will reach the 70s to near 80. Showers should depart Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds depart Friday as high pressure builds to the north.
Turning cooler behind the front with temperatures remaining
above normal ahead of the front then gradually falling behind
the front. Highs will be in the mid 60s to near 70 and overnight
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Gusty winds out of the WNW are
expected during the afternoon, with gusts as high as 20 to 25
mph. This will be accompanied by some pretty low afternoon
relative humidities across eastern WV, northern VA and
central/western MD. This could bring about some fire weather
concerns Friday afternoon when paired with abundant sunshine,
continued well above average temperatures, and very dry
antecedent conditions.

By Saturday, high pressure is overhead and temperatures will be
significantly cooler, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to
low 60s. This is a much more normal range of temperatures for
early November. Overnight lows will then be down into the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slow moving compact upper low is set to push across the Upper
Great Lakes on Sunday before crossing through New England on Monday.
The associated frontal system brings the next shot for widespread
rainfall on Sunday. It should certainly be a welcome sight given the
lengthy period of dry weather and increasing drought conditions over
portions of the area. Periods of rain are likely within the warm
advection regime with total amounts expected in the 0.25 to 0.50
inch range, locally higher over the Alleghenies. Overcast skies will
be the norm on Sunday, accompanied by highs fairly close to early
November averages. That is, forecast highs in the mid 50s to low
60s. Any shower activity likely comes to an end by midday Monday
behind the exiting cold front.

Building heights are expected in the wake through the middle of the
subsequent work week. Despite these rises in heights, temperatures
through Wednesday largely do not change a whole lot. This is in
response to low-level winds which mainly stay out of the
north/northwest before shifting to more easterly by mid-week.
Thereafter, expect another chance of rain with the next frontal
system which approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front slowly drifts south across the through this
evening. Some periods of sub-VFR ceilings are possible,
especially during the overnight/morning periods, although most
ensemble probabilities are fairly low. The highest chance for a
light shower will be this morning into the early afternoon (from
north to south). VFR are expected through Saturday as high
pressure builds overhead.

Given periods of rain in the forecast, Sunday will yield sub-VFR
conditions through the day and into Sunday night. This may also come
with a number of hours of IFR conditions given the expectation of
low ceilings. Low clouds and showers persist into Monday morning
which likely keeps restrictions in place. Drier weather is expected
for the second half of Monday with winds shifting to west-
northwesterly behind a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds out of the west to northwest overnight today with
the frontal passage from the northwest. Winds will back more to
the west on Friday and could even come close to SCA criteria,
especially in the northern Bay and upper Potomac.

Friday night into Saturday morning, a surge of northerly winds
will channel down the Bay, which will likely necessitate an SCA.

Winds shift to easterly on Saturday afternoon ahead of an
approaching area of low pressure. This should remain below SCA
criteria. By Saturday night, winds shift to southeasterly as the
warm front lifts through the region.

Ahead of the next cold front, southerly channeling ensues,
particularly over the wider waters on Sunday evening into Monday
morning. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this uptick in
southerly winds. The mentioned cold front tracks through Monday
afternoon which yields a shift to west-northwesterly winds. This may
also come with a threat of near 20 knot gusts.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/CJL
MARINE...BRO/CJL