713
FXUS61 KLWX 040115
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
915 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through tonight. High pressure will
build into the area in its wake before progressing offshore by
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of mid evening (01Z/9 PM EDT), a few thunderstorms were
nearing far northeastern Maryland. With the environment in
place, some gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible before
storms diminish over the next hour or two. Dry conditions are
forecast overnight with lows in the 60s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper troughing will progress off the New England coast on
Friday, with high pressure building within the zone of
subsidence in its wake across the Eastern Great Lakes/Upstate
NY. Mostly sunny skies are forecast with high pressure in
control. High temperatures will be in the mid-upper 80s for
most. Humidity values will be lower than normal, with dewpoints
holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clear skies are expected
4th of July evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low
humidity levels. Dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the night, with lows in the 60s.

Upper ridging will build in from the west on Saturday as high
pressure at the surface starts to move offshore. Mostly sunny
skies and seasonable temperatures are forecast, with highs in
the upper 80s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad ridging briefly extends eastward across the region into
Sunday. At the same time, what remains of an area of disturbed
weather off the southeastern U.S. coast could graze southern
Maryland at some point late in the weekend. However, any more
notable impacts should be well off to the east. A pattern shift
unfolds into the next work week which allows for a return to
summertime heat, humidity, and daily storm chances.

The northern branch of the jet slowly becomes a bit more amplified,
but while being constituted by an array of lower amplitude waves.
Chances for convection increase through the week as the forcing
becomes more concentrated and focused. Any severe thunderstorm risk
will be predicated on the degree of instability and shear in the
atmosphere. While ample heat and humidity should support plenty of
instability (i.e., CAPE), the shear side of the equation remains
more uncertain. This air mass sticks around for much of the week as
a slow moving cold front approaches from the west. By Wednesday,
this frontal system stalls nearby before meandering in the vicinity
of the region thereafter. With anomalous moisture in place as
precipitable water values rise to around 2 inches, cannot rule out
the potential for some flooding.

Throughout next week, daily temperatures will remain fairly close to
early July climatology. Multi-day global ensembles do show a slow
but steady downtick in forecast temperatures through the week. This
is likely owing to the increase in clouds and overall storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will turn north to northwest just prior to midnight as a
cold front moves through. A few gusts of 15 to 20 knots are
possible for eastern terminals as the front crosses, though any
convection should remain to the north and east. Light northerly
winds are expected Friday, with light southerly winds Saturday.

With any rainfall from the disturbance off the southeastern U.S.
coast likely well east of I-95, no impacts are expected at the area
terminals on Sunday. VFR conditions should prevail before a pattern
shift unfolds. Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances return
which will support restrictions at times on both Monday and Tuesday.
In terms of winds, expect mainly southerlies through Monday before
shifting to west-northwesterlies on Tuesday as a boundary looms
nearby.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively brief period of W/NW winds gusts to near 20 knots
is expected over the upper bay waters overnight as a cold front
crosses the area.

Otherwise, sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters
through Saturday. Winds will be out of the west to northwest
today, north tomorrow, and south on Saturday. There`s a very
small chance that there could be an SMW across far northern
portions of the Bay late this afternoon into this evening, but
most solutions have storms staying off to our north.

Within the pre-cold frontal air mass, mainly south to southeasterly
winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. Some channeling effects are
possible Sunday evening into Sunday night. While uncertain if this
will reach Small Craft Advisory levels, gusts could get close to 18
knots over the more southern waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530>533-538-
     541.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL/KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...BRO/DHOF/CJL