267
FXUS61 KLWX 281545 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1045 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of high pressure briefly builds over the area today,
then a clipper system tracks to our north on Saturday. A strong
cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with high pressure
gradually building in its wake early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Gusty NW winds will diminish quickly this afternoon as high
pressure builds in. Temperatures should top out in the mid 50s
under mostly clear south and mostly cloudy to the northeast.
We`re currently evaluating need for Fire Weather Watches
and Gale Warnings for Saturday.

Previous afd...

A weak high briefly traverses the area today. Northwest winds result
in slightly lower temps than the past couple of days as highs mostly
stay the 50s. Winds gust around 20 mph through the afternoon. Warm
advection ensues tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, causing
winds to turn south and cloud cover increase after sunset. Some rain
showers reach the Alleghenies late tonight, with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A strong upper trough digs across the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, with a
strong cold front crossing our area in the afternoon. This brings a
mix of rain/snow showers to the Alleghenies, with a transition to
mostly snow by the afternoon. However, given the marginal temps and
low SLRs, snow accumulation is forecast to be less than an inch.
Elsewhere, expect this to be a dry FROPA.

Mild temperatures expected as highs reach the 50s to 60s in the
early afternoon ahead of the front. The increasing pressure gradient
will result in breezy conditions by late morning, then winds
increase in the afternoon where gusts of 25-35mph look likely
areawide.

Temperatures rapidly fall Saturday evening into Saturday night as
strong CAA brings in a much colder airmass. Lows bottom out in the
teens to mid 20s. Elevated winds drop wind chills to the single
digits to mid teens. A large surface high pressure over the OH
Valley Sunday slowly builds toward the Mid-Atlantic. Cold and brisk
conditions for Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s to
low 40s. Sunday night lows drop a bit more, with widespread mid to
upper teens and low/mid 20s along/east of I-95.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper troughing will depart off to the east, and high pressure will
build overhead at the surface on Monday. Sunny skies, light winds,
and below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid
40s for most (30s mountains).

High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, causing winds to
become southerly. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures,
despite an increase in mid-high level clouds. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s for most.

A potent storm system will take shape over the center of the country
during the day Tuesday, before tracking northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Nearly all guidance shows a highly dynamic upper
trough ejecting from the Four Corners region toward the Southern
Plains Tuesday. As this upper trough closes off, rapid cyclogenesis
will ensue over the Plains in response, with low pressure deepening
rapidly as it tracks from near KS/OK Tuesday morning to near Chicago
by Wednesday morning. A very strong wind field will accompany this
storm system, with strong southerly low-level flow drawing moisture
northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This
increase in low-level moisture is expected to lead to the
development of surface based instability. The combination of strong
winds aloft combined with surface based instability raises concerns
for severe thunderstorms locally during the day Wednesday. Yesterday
morning, SPC issued a very rare day 7 outlook for severe
thunderstorms that clipped far southern portions of our forecast
area. While there`s always a fair amount of uncertainty associated
with the forecast this far out, this system checks a lot of boxes
synoptically for cool season severe weather, and certainly bears
watching over the upcoming week. While we`ll also receive a fair
amount of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, flooding doesn`t appear
to be a major concern with this system. The strongest synoptic scale
ascent with this system will pass to our northwest into the Great
Lakes, and most ensemble members show around a half of an inch to an
inch of rain. Even the highest end members show around an inch and
a half, which shouldn`t cause major issues, given the ongoing
drought, and continued stretch of dry weather we`ve had over the past
week.

Aside from the severe weather threat, synoptic scale winds may also
be a concern. Most guidance shows a 60-80 knot low-level jet at 850
hPa moving through during the day Wednesday, suggesting that there`s
some potential for gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria in southerly
flow, even outside of any thunderstorms.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night as
the system tracks northeastward into the St. Lawrence Valley. Strong
cold advection and gusty winds will ensue in post frontal west to
northwesterly flow Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry conditions are
forecast to the east of the mountains on Wednesday night into
Thursday, but upslope rain showers will change over to snow in the
Alleghenies as colder air filters in. It will be windy for all on
Thursday, with northwesterly gusts potentially nearing Wind Advisory
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today through the weekend, with winds
remaining elevated during this time. Northwest winds gust around 20
knots this afternoon, then winds turn southerly tonight into
Saturday. The strongest winds come Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening, where gust to around 30 knots are likely to all terminals.
Winds diminish Saturday night into Sunday, though still gusting
around 20 knots until Sunday evening.

VFR conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday. Ceilings will
start to decrease Tuesday afternoon, with sub-VFR conditions
possible by Tuesday night. Winds will be light and variable on
Monday, before turning out of the south later Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated northwest winds gusting around 20 knots continue through
this afternoon, then winds briefly diminish below SCA conditions
this evening. After that, a prolonged period of hazardous marine
conditions looks likely across all the waters this weekend.

A strong cold front moves through on Saturday, possibly bringing
near gale force wind gusts, with SCA winds expected. Winds lessen
slightly on Sunday, but still remain with in SCA levels until
diminishing Sunday night.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters on Monday as
high pressure builds overhead. Winds will turn southerly Monday
night into Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore. Winds may reach
low-end SCA levels in channeled southerly flow by Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ530-
     531-535-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ532>534-536-
     537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...LFR/KJP
MARINE...LFR/KJP