Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
797 FXUS61 KLWX 101834 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and low humidity look to continue through Tuesday as broad high pressure remains nearby. A frontal system may gradually approach from the west Wednesday into Thursday as the high moves out to sea. This will result in increasing heat and humidity as well as thunderstorm chances across the region later in the workweek and into the upcoming weekend ahead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will maintain control of the weather over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. This will result in temps slightly warmer than Saturday with a slight uptick in humidity as well. Highs will reach the 80s. Given a more southeasterly wind direction and the prospect of a few clouds developing overnight, temps will likely be several degrees warmer than the last few nights. Patchy fog is possible once again, perhaps with a bit more coverage as low-level moisture increases. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will drift offshore Monday into Tuesday. A couple of showers could develop Monday afternoon near the central Shenandoah Valley vicinity. Coverage should be low given a ridge of high pressure aloft. High temps likely approach 90 Monday afternoon. A slightly higher potential for showers and a couple thunderstorms will exist mainly west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday afternoon as the ridge continues to gradually break down and heat and humidity increase further. High temps are expected to reach into the 90s for much of the area Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A typical hot and humid (August) summertime pattern will return to the area during the extended period. High temperatures each day should be in the upper 80s and lower 90s (upper 70s/80s mountains), with dewpoints generally in the lower 70s. Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will accompany the increased heat and humidity. The highest coverage of storms will likely be on Wednesday as an upper trough passes to our north and west through the Great Lakes, providing some glancing large scale ascent. This same upper trough will drive a decaying cold front southeastward toward the area later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front should wash out overhead Friday into the weekend, so little in the way of relief from the heat and humidity is expected. With ample amounts of low- level moisture remaining in place, showers and thunderstorms may be possible each afternoon Thursday through Saturday, albeit with lower areal coverage than Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday given broad high pressure nearby. Some patchy fog and low clouds are possible at times given light onshore southeasterly flow mainly during the late overnight and early morning hours each day. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at KCHO, KSHD, and KMRB on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon as low level moisture increases. Any coverage will be fairly isolated and confined to the diurnal peak heating period. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast at less than 10kts through Tuesday. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday across the terminals. Some temporary reductions may be possible due to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Greatest coverage looks to be Thursday as the front drifts into the area and eventually dissipates. Additional thunderstorm chances are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours heading into the upcoming weekend ahead. Winds will remain light out of the west and southwest Wednesday before turning to the northwest Thursday and northeast Friday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level southeasterly winds are expected to continue through Tuesday as broad high pressure remains nearby. Some marginal southerly channeling is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday as high pressure pushes further offshore. Shower and thunderstorm chances do not return to the waters until Wednesday although an isolated shower or t-storm is possible along the bay/river breeze Tuesday. Confidence in this is low given residual upper level ridge suppression over the region. Sub-SCA level winds are expected Wednesday through Friday, with prevailing winds out of the southwest on Wednesday, and northwest on Thursday. Special Marine Warnings may be possible either afternoon or evening in association with thunderstorms. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated tidal anomalies look to continue through Monday given the recent full moon and light onshore flow. Minor coastal flooding is possible with high astronomical tides (especially at Annapolis and perhaps Dahlgren/Alexandria). && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF LONG TERM...EST AVIATION...DHOF/EST MARINE...DHOF/EST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST