917
FGUS63 KKRF 221406
ESGLUP

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH LOUP R AT RAVENNA NE
RVNN1               5.0   8.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUD CR AT SWEETWATER NE
SWTN1              16.5  18.0  21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH LOUP R AT ST MICHAEL NE
SMIN1               9.5  14.0  17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MIDDLE LOUP R AT ST PAUL NE 1SE
SPLN1               8.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:NORTH LOUP R AT ST PAUL NE 3N
SPUN1               7.0  10.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CEDAR R AT FULLERTON NE 3NW
FULN1               9.0  15.0  18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOUP R AT GENOA NE 2S
GELN1              10.5  12.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO AT LORETTO NE 8W
LRTN1              11.0  11.5  14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BEAVER CR AT GENOA NE
GEON1              15.0  17.0  19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211541/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOUTH LOUP R
RVNN1       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    3.2/    3.9/    4.1

:MUD CR
SWTN1       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.4/    8.5/   10.9/   12.4

:SOUTH LOUP R
SMIN1       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.4/    3.3/    4.1/    5.3

:MIDDLE LOUP R
SPLN1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.4/    2.7/    3.5

:NORTH LOUP R
SPUN1       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    3.0/    3.2/    3.3/    3.8

:CEDAR R
FULN1       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.4/    3.0/    3.9/    4.5

:LOUP R
GELN1       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.4/    5.1/    5.7

:BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO
LRTN1       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.5/    3.1/    3.7/    4.2

:BEAVER CR
GEON1       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.5/    4.7/    5.8/    6.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211541/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:SOUTH LOUP R
RVNN1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:MUD CR
SWTN1       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2

:SOUTH LOUP R
SMIN1       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1

:MIDDLE LOUP R
SPLN1       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:NORTH LOUP R
SPUN1       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:CEDAR R
FULN1       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:LOUP R
GELN1       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:BEAVER CREEK NEAR LORETTO
LRTN1       2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:BEAVER CR
GEON1       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$