567
FXUS64 KLUB 161748
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Much warmer and breezier today with temperatures back
   above normal in the 80s and 90s.

 - Breezy conditions with near-record high temperatures will
   result in critical fire weather conditions on Thursday.

 - Thunderstorm chances arrive this weekend, primarily off the
   Caprock, with additional storm chances returning to the entire
   area by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

An omega blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS as an upper
level trough continues to translate through the northeast, while an
additional trough begins to move onshore the California coast. This
will lead to the FA finding itself beneath an upper level ridge with
relatively zonal flow aloft. At the surface, lee troughing is
expected to develop around daybreak shifting winds out of the south-
southwest where they will become breezy as we see the surface
pressure gradient begin to tighten as the surface trough dives
southward into the Texas Panhandle. Expect wind speeds around 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph this afternoon. These breezy downsloping
winds combined with clear skies and increasing thickness values will
lead to much warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday in the
mid 80s to low 90s. Additionally, the southerly component of the
winds will allow for a decent fetch of moisture to enter the FA with
dewpoints ranging from the upper 30s to 40s across the Caprock, with
higher dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s off the Caprock.
Despite these "higher" dewpoints, moisture will remain limited at
the surface with forecast soundings depicting a very dry
sub-cloud layer with the bulk of the moisture confined to the mid-
levels. Regardless, a few high resolution models suggest areas
across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle will have a shot at a
few ridge riding thunderstorms developing along the "dryline" this
afternoon as it pushes east. If thunderstorms develop, they will
likely be high based, with little to no moisture reaching the
ground, given the inverted-v nature of soundings. The severe weather
threat remains low, however isolated strong wind gusts will be
possible with any storm that develops. Breezy downsloping winds will
continue through the overnight period, which will work to keep
overnight lows mild in the 50s across our northwestern counties to
mid 60s across our southeastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on Thursday ahead of
deepening upper level troughing to our west. Within the broader
cyclonic flow over the western CONUS, a fairly potent mid/upper
level shortwave trough is progged to dig southward over ID/UT/NV
during the daytime hours which will work to accelerate surface
cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. As a result, most guidance
progs a sub-995mb surface low centered over SE CO by Thursday
afternoon which will bring breezy to low-end windy conditions to
our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Guidance is in good
agreement keeping the midlevel jet max to our north, which will
spare our area from the strongest winds with sustained speeds of
20 to 30 mph currently looking likely across most of the Caprock
on Thursday afternoon. The strong downslope breezes along with a
low level thermal ridge axis oriented directly over our region
will also result in near-record warm temperatures on Thursday,
with highs in the 90s across the majority of the region. Critical
fire weather conditions are also expected on Thursday and a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area; see
the fire weather section below for details.

Beginning on Friday, the broad upper troughing over the western
CONUS which had been very slow moving over the past several days
will finally accelerate eastward as upstream troughing approaches
the PacNW. Southwesterly flow will continue through much of the
atmosphere on Friday resulting another warm and relatively breezy
day ahead of a cold front pushing southward through the TX/OK
Panhandles. Although high level cloud cover will increase, the lower
half of the atmosphere will remain remarkably dry throughout the day
with the surface dryline progged to remain generally to the east of
our forecast area on Friday. Medium range guidance is in good
agreement depicting the broad upper trough axis maintaining a
neutral or positive tilt as it passes over our region on Saturday,
with consensus favoring an early frontal passage on Saturday
morning. This generally does not bode well for widespread rainfall
across West Texas, and PoPs have been reduced from prior forecasts
given what is now expected to be weaker forcing for ascent locally
throughout the Fri-Sat timeframe, combined with the bulk of the deep
moisture remaining to our east and a relatively stable airmass in
place behind the Saturday morning frontal passage. That being said,
will maintain broad PoPs for the time being given lingering ensemble
spread, with a strong storm or two not out of the question over
eastern portions of the Rolling Plains both Friday and Saturday
evenings.

The upper air pattern is progged to remain fairly progressive into
next week, with a period of dry and mild weather expected Sun-Mon
beneath zonal flow aloft. Southwesterly flow aloft then resumes
beginning Tuesday, with the re-appearance of the dryline bringing a
return of thunderstorm chances during the middle portion of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Although VFR is expected through the next 24 hours, winds will be
strong at the surface and just off the deck the entire time. The
strongest LLWS will be near the KCDS terminal with winds at 50kt
only a few hundred feet off the surface overnight tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Much warmer temperatures are expected today in the 80s and 90s this
afternoon, while breezy southerly winds prevail around 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to 30 mph. Despite these warm and breezy conditions this
afternoon, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low thanks
to recent green-up and minimum RH values generally above the 20th
percentile. The only exception to this will be areas along the TX/NM
state line where minimum RH values will be near 15 percent which may
lead to a few localized spots of elevated fire weather concerns this
afternoon.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to the
majority of the region on Thursday given breezy southwest winds and
near-record warm temperatures. A strengthening storm system over the
central Great Plains states will result in sustained winds of 20 to
30 mph persisting through most of the day on the Caprock, with
slightly weaker winds east of the escarpment. A very dry airmass
and temperatures mainly in the 90s will result in RH values in the
single digits on Thursday afternoon. This will bring RFTI values
of 6 to 8 to most of the Caprock on Thursday, with values of 3 to
5 common across the far SE TX Panhandle. For this reason, a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for the entire region with the
exception of the southern Rolling Plains from late Thursday
morning through Thursday evening. It is worth noting that fuels
have begun to green significantly over the past week or so, but
much of the region remains in a transitional state with a good
amount of lingering cured fuels still present. Meteorological
conditions will still support rapid fire spread if a fire can
establish within any areas of lingering dry fuels.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ021>037-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01