Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
985 FXUS64 KLUB 082327 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. A few storms may become severe. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may return each afternoon Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A 500 mb level high remains stalled over the Desert Southwest today. Waves propagating around it, combined with monsoonal moisture as well as building daytime instability will provide the necessary ingredients for thunderstorm development this afternoon through evening. GFS continues to show the most potent wave tracking northwest to southeast across the area, and average model CAPE remains in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. While uncertainty remains with regards to specific placement of storms depending on the position of the aforementioned wave, in general, areas on the Caprock look to be more favorable for storm development and broad chance PoPs have been retained in the latest forecast. In any case, these chances will linger until around midnight. PWATs are averaging around 1.5 inches and with the monsoonal aspect to the moisture, heavy rain would be the primary threat. However, up to half dollar sized hail and wind gusts to 65 mph cannot be completely ruled out. Storms will taper off by early Wednesday morning and the rest of the day looks to be quiet, with light west winds shifting SE in the afternoon, mostly sunny skies, and near seasonal temperatures in the low-to-lid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The longterm forecast for drier and warmer conditions during the week and the return of storm chances later in the week is still on par. The upper high sitting over the Desert Southwest will flatten and expand latitudinally as an upper trough tracks north of the ridge. However, the expansion of the high will have no effect on the upper flow or heights over the Texas Panhandle. Thickness values will increase by mid-week due to pressure falls. Additionally, south to southwesterly surface flow will prevail as lee surface troughing develops. Greater thicknesses and southerly surface flow will result in temperatures slightly warming Wednesday-Friday to the mid to upper 90s. Thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening as the upper shortwave tracks over the Intermountain West into the Central Plains by the latter half of the week. The shortwave in combination with moist southerly upslope winds, thunderstorms are progged to develop off the Raton Mesa. With decent instability and shear, these thunderstorms could persist and track into our region especially for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains by Thursday evening. However, as confidence on this is low, NBM slight chance PoPs were kept. By the weekend, the upper high will back off to the west as the upper trough continues to track east. Multiple shortwaves are progged to track over the region as southerly surface flow persists bringing in gulf moisture to the area. This will result in cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and rain chances through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Scattered TSRA will continue across the region through the rest of this evening, but the scope of any terminal impacts is uncertain. Will carry TEMPO groups at all sites for the next couple of hours with brief periods of TS and stronger wind gusts possible. Expect convection to gradually decrease in coverage after sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...30