025
FXUS64 KLUB 082014
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
214 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain, snow and
   some sleet.

 - Thin glaze of ice possible Thursday morning with snow
   increasing throughout the day. Snow accumulations ending
   Thursday night.

 - Dry and milder weather returns for Friday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Main focus of this forecast is the wintry precipitation chances
that begin tonight and continu through tomorrow. The upper level
low is currently sitting over NW Mexico. As the upper low shifts
east through tonight, it will open into an open wave before
absorbing into another upper trough over the Central Plains. This
will bring southwesterly flow overhead ushering in moisture to our
region. Ascent will come from a 250 mb jet max sitting overhead
and isentropic lift from southerly surface flow. A rain/snow mix
is expected on and off through the day with chances of freezing
rain. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s across the
region. NBM highs for tomorrow were too high therefore lowered a
couple of degrees and will be in the 30s. Winds will be light from
the south to southwest before shifting from the north after a
cold front pushes southward through the CWA tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A band of light to moderate snow is expected to continue into
Thursday evening primarily across our NW counties in the base of an
upper trough set to depart the forecast area before daybreak Friday.
A vort max embedded within this trough will be shearing out and
exiting into the TX Panhandle during the evening which should spur a
general downturn in snowfall. Regarding snow accumulations, temps
will only become more favorable for better accumulations toward
dusk; however, lift will begin tapering by this time so this
should serve to limit additional accumulations to around an inch
or so primarily north of Lubbock. Even without additional precip,
any wet roads will be subject to freezing overnight and could
remain slick through Friday morning.

Clouds will quickly erode from W-E on Friday as deep subsidence
overspreads the region following the upper trough. Blustery north
winds in the morning behind the overnight FROPA will draw lower
through the day before backing southwesterly on Saturday in
response to deeper W flow aloft and lee troughing. Models now show
a weak surface low across southeast CO on Saturday that descends
into our Rolling Plains by the evening. This weak wave may cut
back on our gusty westerly winds a bit, but for now will favor a
CONSMOS and NBM75 blend for winds during the day along with milder
highs in the mid/upper 50s. This warming theme will be cut short
by a cold front Saturday evening courtesy of a broad trough
carving out from the Hudson Bay through the Great Basin. We remain
on the southern periphery of this wave which means dry westerly
flow aloft through early next week with highs AOB normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

The low cloud deck has left all three sites bringing VFR
conditions. Winds will be light and variable through the TAF
period. Chances of snow will return early tomorrow. Confidence on
timing is low at the moment therefore left out of TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Thursday night for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10