974
FXUS64 KLUB 050420
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1020 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday behind a cold
   front and ahead of an upper level disturbance.

 - The upper level disturbance will bring a chance for light rain
   showers to southern areas Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The cold front is still progged to push through the region today
veering winds to the north although winds will remain light as
pressure rises behind the front will be weak. The Rex flow over
the western CONUS will remain in place with the split flow aloft.
This upper level system should start to weaken tomorrow as another
upper level system begins to push towards the western coast.
Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the lower to
mid 50s as cloud cover increases through the afternoon precluding
daytime heating. Winds in the morning will be light and from the
north but will veer to the east and strengthen as a low level high
pressure system skirts just northeast of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The forecast remains on track this afternoon as we await the
breaking down of the Rex block over the intermountain West and the
ejection of the blocks low northeastward from the desert
Southwest. Unsurprisingly, it looks like this process might be a
little slower than previously anticipated with the main adjustment
being to extend slight rain chances across the southeastern
corner of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon. Otherwise,
increasing mid to upper level ascent mainly across the southern
half of West Texas is expected to commence early Friday as upper
level difluence ahead of the upper low and mid level isentropic
lift could bring light showers as far north as the southern third
of the forecast area in line with previous thinking. Warming
behind the departing system on Sunday will come with a modest
increase in heights and thicknesses, clearing skies, and
increasing southwesterly surface winds. However, a broad upper
trough continues to be advertised over the CONUS and is expected
to be more amplified than recent similar events with potential to
bring the coldest air of the season (not saying much given this
fall`s warm temperatures) behind a cold front early in the week.
The accompanying short wave trough rotating southeastward into the
base of the long wave trough will likely remain a point of
disagreement regarding precip chances Monday night and Tuesday.
This pattern generally favors precip generated over the Sangre de
Cristos petering out by the time it gets to the forecast area. NBM
continues to waffle between 10 percent "silent" PoPs and 20
percent slight chance mention with model-to-model and run-to-run
differences but will continue to ride with better clarity expected
later on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR and generally light easterly winds will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19