469
FXUS64 KLUB 301134
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Upper-level ridging will remain over North Texas today but may
wobble towards the forecast area this afternoon before shifting
east this evening. A weak surface cold front was located along
I-40 as of 2 am but this boundary is expected to lift back to the
northeast today as a warm front. Unfortunately, with no boundaries
across our forecast area to help focus development, precipitation
chances look meager at best today. Thickness values will actually
decrease slightly today which will keep temperatures near to a
few degrees cooler than what was observed yesterday. This will
keep high temperatures in the mid 90s to the lower 100s. Southeast
winds will keep surface dewpoints in the 60s east of the Caprock
escarpment hence it`ll be another day of more muggy conditions but
heat index values should "only" top out near 104 degrees hence we
will remain Heat Advisory criteria today. Overnight low
temperatures will be very similar to this morning, dropping mostly
into the 70s by Monday morning. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Long term forecast remains on track this morning with very few
changes. The center of the ridge will remain parked over North Texas
on Monday before eventually sliding east and becoming elongated over
the Southeast U.S. by Wednesday. So while heights aloft will be
decreasing overall thickness values will slowly increase through the
middle of the week. The increasing thickness values combined with a
slightly more downsloping component to the winds, thanks to
strengthening lee surface troughing, will help to increase high
temperatures a few degrees both Monday (upper 90s to lower 100s )
and Tuesday (100-105). The lee troughing will allow southerly to
southwesterly surface winds to become breezy both Monday and Tuesday
with sustained wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25-30
mph. By Tuesday the ridge will be far enough east that a monsoonal
moisture plume will begin to edge over the far southwest Texas
Panhandle. It looks like the best moisture will remain north and
west of our forecast area on Tuesday but by Wednesday this plume
should be a bit farther southeast leading to increasing
precipitation chances at least across the far southern Texas
Panhandle and South Plains especially considering that an upper-
level trough will be moving through the Four Corners as well. The
trough should swing through the forecast area early Thursday which
unfortunately will scatter the monsoonal moisture plume. However, as
another ridge develops off the western U.S. coast and troughing
remains over the central U.S. this will transition the upper air
pattern over our forecast area to northwest flow aloft which will
remain in place through next weekend. This will help to lower
temperatures back closer to average for this time of year as well as
increase precipitation chances across the entire forecast area from
the end of the week through next weekend. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds are
expected to remain lighter today and remain out of the south to southeast.
There is a small chance (10%) of a shower or thunderstorm
developing around CDS this afternoon which may produce gusty winds
but most precipitation will remain north and east of the
terminal. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58