Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
058 FXUS64 KLUB 052319 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 619 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Hot and dry conditions throughout the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s and lower triple digits. - Heat advisory level conditions expected Friday with widespread triple digit heat. - Precipitation chances return this weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Not much of a change to the forecast package with mostly dry and hot conditions expected as an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to expand eastward , encompassing much of the FA. This will continue to influence much warmer temperatures over the next 48 hours as we see thickness and height values increase across the region. Thankfully, the center of the ridge will remain just to our west across southeastern New Mexico, which should help keep us from reaching Heat Advisory criteria today and tomorrow. However, temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees warmer than today, as southwesterly to westerly flow from the surface H7 will aids in the transport of WAA into the region, with 850 mb temperatures around 28C to 31C, suggesting highs in the upper 80s to low triple digits Wednesday afternoon. Although not expected, there remains a chance that localized areas could see highs reach heat advisory criteria (+105F) but confidence in this remains too low and not widespread enough for any heat products. Regardless, if outside try to limit time outdoors, if this is not possible make sure to drink plenty of water and take necessary breaks in the shade to limit heat related illnesses. Given increased subsidence noted across the region with the surface high stretched across much of the state will likely keep the FA dry. However, a few high resolution models convect an isolated thunderstorm or two across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and moving into areas across the Caprock. Chances on this coming to fruition remains low, however non-zero, if any moisture trapped beneath the region can interact with the slight upslope flow noted and subtle perturbations tracking down the eastern side of the upper high. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The upper level ridge will continue its expansion eastward, closer to the FA, while strengthening through the rest of the week. As the center of the 598 dam upper high becomes positioned across central New Mexico. Meanwhile near the surface, southerly flow up to H7 will continue to transport WAA into the region. As height and thickness values continue to increase, in combination with the warm southerly winds, and mostly clear skies, temperatures will likely climb into the triple digits area-wide Thursday. Friday looks to be the hottest of the week, despite the upper ridge beginning to retreat back west, thanks to thickness values remaining steady with 850mb temperatures around 30C to 35C suggesting Heat Advisory conditions area-wide with highs are 100F to 105F. Thankfully, heights and thickness will decrease through the weekend as the upper level ridge continues to retreat west, as an upper level low translates through the Canadian Provinces, with an upper level trough extending into the Central Plains, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures back into the mid 90s. Chances for precipitation also look to return, potentially as early as Friday evening, as the surface high shifts easts as the lee surface low moves into the Southern Plains. Although the best chance for precipitation looks to return Saturday evening through early next week as we begin to see better moisture return, with an axis of monsoonal moisture stretching across the FA. For now, left the NBM mentionable 20% to 30% PoPs given the uncertainty with it being several days out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Daytime winds will become gusty from the south at all three terminals. Isolated TSRA near the NM state line are expected to dissipate before potentially affecting KLBB and KPVW. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07