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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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863 FXUS64 KLUB 171113 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 For Wednesday, an upper level ridge will amplify roughly along the continental divide. This will favor low level upslope flow and convection off the higher terrain this afternoon into the overnight hours. However, before this occurs, a surface boundary currently moving through the area may spark additional thunderstorms this afternoon. The outflow boundary reinforced cold front will continue to move southward through the rest of the morning and will likely settle near the southern South Plains into the Permian Basin. Low level convergence will be maximized mostly in the Permian Basin along this stalled out boundary but strong heating north of the boundary will completely erode the cap. A weak trough at 700mb will be moving from north to south across the region today which may enhance lift in close proximity to the surface boundary. Furthermore, cooling temperatures at 700mb within this trough will contribute to the weakening cap by late afternoon. Nearly uncapped air is anticipated by mid to late afternoon with a fairly deep mixed layer to roughly 750mb or so. This will yield forecast mixed layer instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Upslope flow into New Mexico may bring the potential for convection into the western South Plains. As with the probability of precipitation, severe chances will be low with this initial activity. Another benefit of the cold front will be slightly cooler temperatures area wide this afternoon. Better chances of precipitation will manifest itself during the evening and overnight hours as a mesoscale convective system will grow upscale out of eastern New Mexico. The aforementioned upslope flow will extend from eastern New Mexico northward along the front range of the Rockies along with a weak short wave trough at mid- levels bringing favorable chances for convection. This convection will likely experience upscale growth as it moves to the southeast out of New Mexico into West Texas. As with most of these scenarios, the western South Plains will be the most favored region for convection with decreasing chances to the east. Strong instability out ahead of convection will favor this convection moving into the South Plains late tonight into early Thursday morning. But with the possible afternoon convection, severe chances are low. Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The upper high will remain over the Four Corners region tomorrow and will slowly retreat westward into the weekend. This will help to keep the FA under northerly to northwesterly flow well into next week. While this will bring in at least chance PoPs through Friday, a second cold front is progged to push through the region late Saturday into early Sunday as an upper shortwave trough pushes southward from central Canada into the Midwest. The addition of this front will provide additional lift and increased storm chances. The front, as well as potential rainfall, will help cool temps from the low/mid 90s late this week to the mid/upper 80s next week. There is still some uncertainty with timing and coverage of precip through much of the forecast period. More widespread coverage and any lingering cloud cover could cool daily high temps further (but not by too much) than what is forecasted. The overall threat for severe convection is low, but some storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front early this morning has shifted winds to the north through east with speeds remaining light. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward out of eastern New Mexico late tonight into early Thursday morning. The KLBB and KPVW terminals stand to see the best chance of these storms. Chances are high enough to at least mention a PROB30 in these TAFs at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...01