319
FXUS64 KLUB 272335
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

 - Cooler, but still warm today with low chances for showers and a
   few storms.

 - Elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
   develop area-wide Saturday and again by the middle of next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Widespread high cloud cover is currently indicated on satellite
across much of the area which is helping to keep a more stabilized
environment. High-res model SBCAPE is similar to yesterday,
averaging around 1000 J/kg but is mostly confined to the TX/NM
border along the southern South Plains. Moisture parameters remain
favorable overall with dewpoints in the mid 50s and PWATS ranging
from 0.75-1". Forcing is still lacking, with only some weak lift
north of an unorganized looking upper trough. Latest CAMs are also
unimpressive, with many of them showing any storms remaining
outside our area. HRRR is picking up on a line in eastern NM late
this evening likely due in part to the aforementioned instability,
however it falls apart before reaching our CWA. Some mentionable
PoPs have been retained for the southern South/Rolling Plains,
however confidence continues to diminish. If any storms do occur,
severe weather is not expected, however some could produce gusty
winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Lingering low-level
moisture may result in low stratus early Friday morning. Otherwise
south-southwesterly flow will return thereafter between a low moving
over the Dakotas and high pressure off the Atlantic coast. As such,
temperatures will again increase with highs reaching the low-to-mid
80s and skies will clear into the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

With the exception of a few breezy days and a cold front, the
longterm forecast is relatively quiet. A ~995 surface low will
develop over southwestern Kansas Saturday morning ahead of an
approaching upper shortwave trough. While this will allow for breezy
conditions Saturday afternoon, winds should remain below advisory
level. The surface pressure gradient alone will be relatively broad
with MOS guidance showing sustained winds of 20 knots or less.
West to southwest surface winds will create dry conditions,
however, with dewpoints dropping into the low 20s/teens Saturday
and as low as the single digits Sunday. A cold front will begin to
push into the FA Sunday afternoon as the upper trough pushes east
of the region. This will coll temps from the 80s/90s Saturday to
the 70s/80s Sunday. More of a cool down is expected Monday,
60s/70s, as surface winds shift to a more easterly direction. A
quick return to the 80s in expected Tuesday as surface winds
return to the south in the morning then west by the afternoon as a
dryline moves into the region. Models diverge on the upper and
surface pattern late Tuesday and beyond. The GFS keeps mostly
zonal flow under an upper ridge. The ECMWF keeps upper flow mostly
out of the southwest due to upper troughing across across the
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Stronger wind speeds will continue to diminish as we near sunset
this evening. Meanwhile, CAMs continue to hint at the likelihood
of MVFR to IFR CIGs impacting all terminals after or right around
midnight tonight. Additionally, KPVW and KLBB could see patchy fog
development mix in with these low-clouds but should quickly exit
around daybreak.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12