Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
055 FXUS64 KLUB 241048 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 548 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms for most of the region next week. - A strong cold front will push through the region early next week bringing cooler temperatures with it. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Should be a warm and mild Sunday. An upper high over the Four Corners region will gradually shift to the south through today as an upper trough swings through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. As the high tracks south, flow aloft will shift to northwesterly effectively bring a plume of subtropical moisture over the region. On the surface, a weak front the tracked through the region yesterday will retrograde to northeastern zones of our region shifting to ESE surface flow. With the lingering front and increased moisture, showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs near normal in the 90s for most of the region. Expect quiet conditions tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Main takeaways for the long term package are a strong cold front pushing through the region early in the week and daily precipitation chances. The upper high will continue to shift southward, setting up over southern portions of Texas where it is expected to remain through mid-week. The prominent northwesterly flow aloft will keep the subtropical moisture plume overhead through the first half of the week, however models indicate the upper high will retrograde back over our region the latter half of the week effectively cutting off the subtropical moisture. Temperatures on Monday will remain near seasonal normal with highs in the 90s for most of the region. However, a strong cold front is progged to track through the region Monday evening, bringing fall temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. We could possibly see the front earlier Monday if accelerated by outflows from storms to the north Sunday evening. Precipitation chances begin Monday morning over the far southern Texas Panhandle along the front and expand southward through the day as the front pushes through the region. Subtropical moisture and perturbations in the upper level flow keep shower and thunderstorm chances going through Wednesday. With PWAT values of 1.3 up to 1.8, we can expect bouts of heavy rainfall with these storms. Precipitation chances will begin to decrease Wednesday as the high begins to expand back over our region cutting off the moisture plume and surface winds shift to the south in response to a lee surface trough developing to the north of the FA. This pattern shift will gradually dry out the region Wednesday and allow temperatures to warm back into the 90s Thursday. However, this will not last long as another cold front is progged to push through the region by this weekend bringing cooler temperatures and more precipitation chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated rain showers are currently pushing southward across the southern Texas Panhandle. No lightning has been observed with this activity. These showers may affect PVW by 13Z. Brief heavy rainfall is the main hazard that is expected with this activity. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible at PVW and CDS after 21Z through the end of the TAF cycle. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...51