794
FXUS64 KLUB 061120
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

 - Areas of patchy fog possible across the South Plains through
   Sunday morning.

 - A chance of thunderstorms, some severe, across the Caprock
   Sunday evening.

 - Storm chances continue both Monday and Tuesday evenings, with
   drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Storms will continue to diminish early this morning, with a
mostly quiet night in store across the Caprock. Another mild and
muggy night is expected with overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid
70s while dewpoint temperatures remain steady in the 60s and 70s
as well. There does remain a chance for some patchy fog
development given the high dewpoints and light wind speeds once
again tonight. However, dense fog like this morning, does not look
as likely with mainly areas of patchy fog possible across the
South Plains with localized dense patches.

Weather for Sunday looks to be fairly similar as Saturday with
the center of the H5 upper level ridge and associated high
pressure remaining over the Desert Southwest. As the FA remains
fixated along the eastern edge of the ridge, we will see the
continuation of northwest flow aloft across the region where it
will remain weak. Meanwhile at the surface, we will continue to
see moisture transport from the Gulf as the upslope component to
the wind remains in place as the surface high remains to our east
and surface low remains over eastern New Mexico. Dewpoints will
likely rise into the 60s and 70s once again, which with high
temperatures in the 90s across much of the area will lead to
another day of muggy conditions. Given the amount of moisture
still present from the surface to mid-levels and upslope component
to the wind, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop off
the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon. Given
flow aloft looks to remain rather weak, there is a chance storms
may not even make it into the area, with highest chance for PoPs
favoring the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Any thunderstorm
that develops and makes into the area will be capable of strong
winds to 60 MPH and quarter size hail given forecast soundings
indicating MLCAPE values of at least 1500 J/kg along with decent
low to mid-level lapse rates. Storms may linger through part of
the night before diminishing, with another mild night expected
with lows in the 60s and 70s. There is a chance for another round
of patchy fog development but there remains low confidence in that
materializing at this point in time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The center of persistent ridging aloft is progged to be centered
just west of El Paso by early Monday, with the associated broad zone
of upper level anticyclonic flow expected to remain in place over
the desert southwest for most of the upcoming week. Throughout at
least the first half of the week, a series of shortwave disturbances
within the northwest flow along the NE periphery of the ridge will
result in daily afternoon thunderstorm development along the CO and
NM high terrain which will then propagate southeastward through the
evening hours. Just how far this activity makes it into the TX
Panhandle and South Plains and how long into the evening it persists
each day is uncertain, but enough deterministic and ensemble
agreement exists to maintain mentionable storm chances during the
evening and overnight periods both Monday and Tuesday nights.
Wednesday through the second half of the week, the ridging aloft is
progged to flatten and extend farther eastward over TX as a stronger
upper level shortwave trough moves over the northwestern CONUS. This
will bring a general decrease in daily storm chances while also
resulting in a warming trend late week. Temperatures will begin the
week near seasonal averages, but highs will likely reach into the
mid to upper 90s Thursday and beyond, which is a few degrees above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

IFR CIGS finally arrived later than expected but will continue to
affect the KLBB and KPVW terminals for a few hours this morning
before dissipating. Slight visby restrictions will exist for KCDS
for the same time period. At the moment, there is a low chance of
returning low CIGS and visbys for Monday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01