873
FXUS64 KLUB 071118
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe thunderstorm chances expected later Sunday afternoon
   through evening for the far southern Texas Panhandle and the
   Rolling Plains.

 - Severe thunderstorm chances remain expected each
   afternoon/evening through the end of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

After two very eventful severe weather days, we will get a break
and can expect quiet conditions today. Currently, a few
thunderstorms linger over northern portions of the South Plains
and northern portions of the Rolling Plains. Can still expect
strong wind gusts and large hail with any severe thunderstorms
that continue. Thunderstorm chances should diminish by early this
morning. Strong zonal flow aloft will persist through today and
will hinder large scale ascent. An MCS tracking through Colorado
and Kansas will push a convectively enhanced cold front through
our region early this morning. East to northeasterly winds
following the front should remain light through today. Although
daytime heating will boost instability values with dewpoints in
the 60s, the front will keep the region capped keeping convective
chances low. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s despite the passage of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Next week is gearing up to be an active week with severe chances
everyday. The first round of thunderstorm chances will be late
Sunday afternoon through the evening for the far southern Texas
Panhandle and the Rolling Plains. Upper level flow will shift
northwesterly as a potent low tracks towards the Great Lakes
region and a high stays stagnant over southwestern Texas and
northern Mexico. The upper flow will be interrupted as an embedded
shortwave tracks over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle aiding
with large scale ascent and a cold front will track southward
through the region later in the day. Southerly surface flow
preceding the front will enhance low-level moisture. Some models
indicate chances for thunderstorm early afternoon however, the
greatest chances will be later in the day as the front pushes
through. Supercell development is expected as daytime heating
will amass strong instability and current soundings show CAPE
values over 2000 J/kg preceding of the front. Any supercells that
do develop will be capable of producing very large hail and
tornadoes.

We will see convective chances return everyday the rest of the week.
The potent upper low over the Great Lakes region will continue to
track east. Upper ridging seems to set up over the western CONUS as
upper troughing parks directly over the Texas Panhandle by mid-week.
Mostly southerly surface flow this week should keep low-level
moisture sufficient. We will see a cooler temperatures the first half
of the week following the cold front on Sunday and a secondary push
of cooler air on Monday but expect 90+ temperatures again by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for all three terminals for this TAF
period. Some low clouds are expected this morning for all TAF sites
but, will remain VFR ceilings. A cold front is currently pushing
through the FA bringing light north to northeasterly winds behind
the front.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10