029
FXUS64 KLUB 131119
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Scattered rain showers and a couple of thunderstorms are forecast
   through Tuesday morning.

 - Much cooler temperatures are expected today, followed by a gradual
   warm-up throughout the rest of the week.

 - Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, an amplified, longwave trough, with a
couplet of shortwave troughs translating through the larger-scale
waveguide, encompasses the western U.S. interior. The leading
shortwave trough has since ejected into southern Manitoba, with the
upstream shortwave trough digging southward over the Olympic
Peninsula. Broadly cyclonic flow expands into most of the Great
Plains, with the CWA within the far southeastern periphery of this
belt of cyclonic flow, as the subtropical ridge remains centered
over the TX Triangle. Thick overcast associated with an elongated
vorticity lobe continues to advect over the CWA, and although there
is strong, large-scale forcing for ascent, convection remains rather
dilapidated due to the intensity of the cloud-layer flow and weak
thermal profiles. The 13/00Z RAOBs from WFOs EPZ and MAF observed
moist isentropes throughout the 700-200 mb layer amidst meager
thermal instability and a veered, low-level jet. Recent WSR-88D
imagery reflects the poor thermodynamic properties of the airmass
and entrained low-levels despite the concavity to the large-scale
trough, with another batch of elevated rain showers advecting
northeastward from southeastern NM. Lightning potential will remain
limited through the pre-dawn hours until the core of the ill-defined
vorticity lobe arrives after sunrise, with better prospects for
elevated, fast-moving showers and a few thunderstorms thereafter.

At the surface, a weakening, synoptic cold front was located in the
OK PH, and connects to a lee cyclone near CAO. The CWA remains
within the broad, open moist sector; and winds are weak and remain
slightly veered, which is to be expected given the superposition of
the longwave trough relative to the CWA. CAA was moderating in wake
of the cold front, and the front is expected to stall and undergo
frontolysis across the northern zones by the late morning hours as
the elongated vorticity maximum translates overhead. PoPs have
increased for the latter half of the morning and into the early
afternoon hours, with an expectation for several swaths of locally
moderate-to-heavy rainfall. Updrafts will struggle to reach heights
high enough to generate lightning given that isentropes will reach
saturation throughout most, if not all, of the columns. However, a
couple of storms remain forecast due to the limited depth of CAPE
aloft (i.e., AMA, EPZ, and MAF RAOBs observed a shallow layer of
elevated CAPE). Severe weather is not expected.

PoPs will gradually trend downward throughout the afternoon hours
and into tonight, as the passage of this elongated vorticity max
will be the final wave of vigorous ascent due to the shortwave
trough digging into the Sierra Nevada Mountains and resulting in a
northwestward shift of the entrance-region to the mid/upper-level
jetlets. Otherwise, as discussed in prior forecasts, a wide range in
temperatures is expected today, with highs ranging from the upper
60s and lower 70s in the far southwestern TX PH to the lower 80s in
the southeastern Rolling Plains. Highs were lowered to align with
the slightly cooler MOS given the dense overcast and upslope flow
component of the southeasterly winds. Overcast will gradually erode
tonight, with Tuesday morning lows a few degrees cooler than Monday.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A few changes have been initiated for the extended forecast, and
involves the introduction of low PoPs against the dry NBM for
Thursday. Otherwise, the overall theme remains on track. At the
beginning of the period, an intense shortwave trough, with a closed
low embedded within its base, will be pivoting towards the southern
Great Basin. Leeward pressure falls will be maintained across the
High Plains, with southeasterly winds remaining intact area-wide,
albeit slightly breezier than Monday. Full insolation will aid in
boosting temperatures to nearly 10 degrees warmer than Monday, with
lingering, high-altitude overcast near the NM state line. Farther
east, the subtropical ridge will begin to amplify once again, which
will result in slightly positive geopotential height rises over the
region. The warm-up will continue Wednesday into Thursday, with
surface winds veering poleward and becoming breezy as the longwave
trough begins to deamplify ahead of a quasi-zonal extension to the
northern Pacific jet stream nosing into the Pacific Northwest.

By Thursday, substantial large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast
to overspread the western Great Plains, with the bulk of the ascent
remaining displaced to the north of the CWA. However, over the past
48 hours, there has been an increasing signal in the potential for
storms to develop across portions of W TX Thursday afternoon and
night as the Pacific cold front moves towards the region. Global NWP
guidance was previously bifurcated on this scenario; however, recent
trends have shown some convergence with respect to potential
precipitation placement. Therefore, slight chance/20-percent PoPs
have been manually introduced across the Caprock for afternoon and
evening hours Thursday. The geopotential height falls associated
with the ejection of the shortwave trough would result in the
typical increase in large-scale, geostrophic deformation, and it is
possible that a dryline forms ahead of the cold front.

Irrespective of the development of any pre-frontal, mesoscale
boundaries, the presence what may be a sharpened cold front beneath
the vigorous field of moist, isentropic ascent aloft should be
enough to govern the development of at least isolated storms
Thursday. Mesoscale details remain murky at this point in time, but
it appears to be mainly a question of coverage, as the primary
vorticity lobe will be displaced nearly 900 miles to the north of
the CWA. Adjustments to the PoPs for Thursday will prove necessary
in forthcoming cycles, but for now, confidence is high enough to
warrant an official mention with this prognostication. A dry and
warm forecast is then reflected heading into next weekend.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Plentiful mid and upper level moisture will result in periods of
light rain showers and continued overcast across the region
through most of this morning. Precipitation is likely to decrease
in coverage by about midday, but a stray shower or perhaps a TS or
two is possible basically anywhere this afternoon and evening.
There is a very slim chance of a brief period of MVFR CIGs this
morning, but the probability of this occurring is much too low for
TAF mention at this time. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30