081
FXUS64 KLUB 010855
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
355 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Persistence is the name of the game today as another hot and dry day
is expected across the region as the upper-level ridge slowly drifts
towards the ArkLaTex region. Surface troughing will increase today
which will allow southerly winds to be a bit breezier across the
forecast area with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30
mph. High temperatures will be very similar to what was observed
yesterday with most locations topping out in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. Heat indices will be lower though as dewpoints drop
into the mid and upper 50s so if you can find shade this afternoon
it won`t feel quite as oppressive as days past. Weather won`t be
too different overnight either with low temperatures ranging from
the low to mid 70s on the Caprock and mid to upper 70s east of the
Caprock escarpment although southerly breezes will remain around
10-15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift east and become
elongated over the Southeastern U.S. on Tuesday. Despite heights
decreasing aloft, overall thickness values will actually peak on
Tuesday. This combined with downsloping southwesterly winds at the
surface means that Tuesday will be our hottest day of the week with
high temperatures between 100 and 106 degrees expected area wide.
Tuesday will also be the first of several days in which late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may return to at
least portions of the area as a monsoonal moisture plume rotates
overhead. On Tuesday the edge of this plume will move over the
far southwestern Texas Panhandle into the northwestern South
Plains. Within this plume sufficient moisture will be present for
a few isolated showers/storms to develop and with a well mixed
boundary layer a few stronger wind gusts as well. This moisture
plume will slowly move southeast and cover more of the forecast
area on Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures won`t be quite as
warm as Tuesday due to the return of more southerly to
southeasterly surface winds, but high temperatures will still be
above normal in the upper 90s to near 103 degrees. These
temperatures will be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop across the far southern Texas
Panhandle and South Plains especially in the vicinity of any
boundaries from the previous days convection. Thursday an upper-
level trough will move through the Intermountain West and into the
Great Plains. This trough will usher a surface cold front south
during the day on Thursday however it will remain too far north of
our area to help cool us down. So high temperatures in the upper
90s to lower 100s are expected once again on Thursday but this
should be our last day of above normal temperatures for at least a
few days! The monsoonal moisture plume will be dissipating on
Thursday but with increasing upper-level support a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms would once again be possible during the
late afternoon and evening across our entire forecast area but
most Fourth of July festivities should remain dry.

Surface cold front is expected to arrive into our forecast area late
Thursday night or early Friday morning and convergence along this
boundary should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms
that will persist through Friday afternoon. The cold front and
precipitation will keep temperatures much cooler on Friday with high
temperatures only reaching the low 80s to low 90s. These
temperatures may need to be lowered even more depending on how
widespread the precipitation and cloud cover is. This front should
stall near or just south of our forecast area on Saturday. With
northwest flow aloft this will keep temperatures close to normal for
this time of year (low to mid 90s) as well as a chance for
additional rainfall. Unfortunately, our "cooler" stretch of
weather will be fairly short lived as another upper-level ridge
advances into the Desert Southwest allowing temperatures to climb
back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the weekend and into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Breezy
southerly winds will return to the terminals late this morning
with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58