226
FXUS64 KLUB 091911
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
211 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

 - An extended period of warm, dry, and breezy weather is expected
   this week which will likely result in elevated fire danger each
   afternoon from Monday through Thursday.

 - The potential is increasing for a High Wind event and an
   extreme fire danger across the region Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A quiet forecast remains on par through tomorrow afternoon. The
upper low that brought yesterday`s cool temps and snowfall is
currently centered over the Metroplex and will move over
Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. Surface high pressure will
set up behind the upper low and will cover most of Texas. This will
help to keep winds light through the overnight hours. Though winds
will be light, they will be mostly out of the west. This will help
stabilize overnight lows, near 30 on the Caprock and mid/upper 30s
off the Caprock. Temperatures will likely be lower across areas that
still have snow on the ground by sunset. Temperatures have been
lowered by around 2 degrees across portions of the far southern
Texas Panhandle that will likely still have snow on the ground.
Patchy fog will also be possible across the areas, but confidence is
not high enough to add into the forecast at this time. Upper ridging
will move overhead tomorrow while a surface trough extends
southwestward into eastern New Mexico from a surface low near Lake
Superior. The surface trough will bring winds more southwesterly
around 15 mph by the afternoon and, with help from the overhead
ridge, will warm temps into the mid 70s/low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A progressive, split-flow pattern will remain intact over the U.S.
throughout the extended period, with several series of shortwave
troughs propagating over the Lower 48 due to the high-frequency
train of cyclonically-breaking wave events emanating out of the
northeastern Pacific Ocean. At the beginning of the period, the CWA
will be positioned beneath the northern periphery of a broadly
anticyclonic, southern-stream jet streak arcing over Mexico and into
the Deep South while a shortwave trough digs into Baja California. A
benign surface pattern is expected Tuesday, as a decaying, polar
cold front nears the Upper Red River Valley before finally stalling
to the north of the CWA. West-southwesterly winds will be slightly
breezy, and the combination of adiabatic compression from the
westerly fetch and full insolation will cause mixing heights to
ascend into the mid-levels. The shortwave trough will remain open as
it ejects into the southern Great Plains, with its base passing to
the south of the CWA. Although moist, isentropic ascent will
increase drastically in the mid-levels, the surface and low-levels
will remain dry due to the persistent, westerly flow; however, bands
of mid-level ACCAS may result in the development of virga during the
morning hours. Therefore, its passage will be dry, and westerly
winds will accelerate to 20-30 mph following the passage of the
Pacific cold front. Persistence forecasting was applied with respect
to the temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, with similar highs
expected each day, and Wednesday being the cooler of the two days.

Prospects for a High Wind event this Friday remain intact. In fact,
confidence continues to increase, and is already unusually high, as
a particularly intense, negatively-tilted trough ejects into the
Great Plains. The trough will attain its slightly-negative tilt as
it emerges over the Pacific coastline Thursday, with the split-flow
also beginning to phase across the western U.S. interior. This will
result in further intensification of the mid- and high-level jet
streaks rounding the base of the trough, with the leading edges of
these jet streaks nosing into West Texas this Thursday. Winds will
become breezy by Thursday afternoon in response to the large-scale,
leeward pressure falls across the entire Great Plains, which will
lead to yet another day of elevated fire weather conditions across
the CWA. NBM continues to capture this upcoming High Wind event
well, but further adjustments, particularly to the gust factor, may
be necessary over the next few days. There is high confidence in
this trough becoming negatively-tilted as it ejects over the
southern Rocky Mountains, with the 500 mb and 300 mb jet streaks
approaching 100 kt and 140 kt, respectively, as they round the base
of the trough. Global NWP guidance is also indicating impressive
isallohypsic forcing, with a geopotential height gradient of 10-12
dam spanning the width of the CWA.

It is possible that record MSLP territory may be neared across the
central Great Plains as rapid intensification of the lee surface low
occurs beneath the vertically-stacking vortex over the north-central
Great Plains by Friday evening. There are indications for the
surface low to deepen to as low as 970-974 mb as it rotates across
the central Great Plains. The intensity of the cross-barrier flow
(possibly 70 kt at 700 mb) will facilitate sequences of hydraulic
jumps off of the southern Rocky Mountains, with rotors propagating
downwind of the breaking wave(s) and towards the CWA. Though not
reflected in the official forecast, this could result in the
development of significant wind gusts potentially between 70-80 mph,
especially across the Caprock. The very dry airmass and high winds
will also lead to the potential for extremely critical fire weather
conditions area-wide this Friday. The upper air pattern is forecast
to remain amplified through the weekend, with breezy, dry, and warm
conditions to last into early next week.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a slight chance for fog at
CDS during the overnight hours. This will dependent on snow still
remaining and not having fully melted by nightfall. Confidence is
not high at this time and VIS reduction at CDS will be kept out of
this TAF cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51