050
FXUS64 KLUB 011139
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
639 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue today through tonight,
   and some locally heavy rain is possible.

 - Relatively cool temperatures today with continued cloud cover
   and easterly winds.

 - Below average highs with daily thunderstorm chances persist
   through Friday, then warmer/hotter with lower rain chances
   thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A surface trough that provided weak forcing for storms to
initiate yesterday evening and the persistent upper monsoonal
moisture plume will keep showers and thunderstorms going through
the overnight hours and all day today. The main concern with the
longevity of shower and thunderstorm chances will be localized
flooding due to slow storm motion and heavy rainfall. Isolated
severe wind gusts are also possible with any thunderstorm
outflows, however none have met severe criteria yet. Upper level
ridging remains overhead as a deamplifying upper trough tracks
over northeastern portions of CONUS and a secondary upper trough
slowly track on shore off the coast of California. Much cooler
than normal temperatures are expected today due to the expected
showers and cloudy skies for most of the day. On the Caprock will
see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s while highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

No big changes made to the extended forecast this iteration. The
plume of monsoonal moisture will linger over the region the next few
days. This will keep plenty of cloud cover and below average high
temperatures in place, along with decent thunderstorm chances
(generally peaking in coverage/intensity during the afternoon and
evening hours). Given weak/nebulous large-scale forcing and minimal
wind shear, overall storm organization/intensity will be limited and
pinpointing the exact timing/location of thunderstorm activity
nearly impossible from day-to-day. However, with abundant moisture
in place and weak steering flow, where storms do occur they will
bring the risk for locally heavy rainfall. A few strong wind gusts
and/or brief small hail cores could occur with the strongest
convection too, though the overall risk of severe weather will be
low.

A shortwave trough is progged to emerge over the central High Plains
late week. This will tend to thin and shift the monsoonal moisture
eastward on Friday. Thereafter, upper ridging will build over the
south-central and southwestern CONUS. This pattern will favor more
insolation and warming temperatures, with highs jumping back into
the lower and middle 90s for most this weekend. Additionally,
rain/storm chances will dwindle along with the deep-tropospheric
moisture. That said, enough heating and lingering low-level moisture
may be sufficient for isolated afternoon and evening convection over
the southern High Plains through the weekend and into early next
week. Regarding the 4th of July, it looks pretty nice with highs
topping out near 90 degrees and low (5%-15%) storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Low confidence forecast this morning with precipitation chances
and low cloud cover continuing through the day. LBB continues to
have the highest probability of IFR or MVFR CIGs this morning. The
duration of IFR versus MVFR and the timing of any breaks in CIGs
this morning remains uncertain and will maintain a pessimistic TAF
for the time being, but LBB is then likely to improve to MVFR or
VFR this afternoon. PVW and CDS are currently expected to remain
VFR throughout the daytime hours today, though a few drops into
MVFR conditions are possible. Otherwise, expect SHRA activity to
continue through the rest of this morning especially at LBB/PVW,
with chances for TSRA at all sites this afternoon and evening.
MVFR and IFR CIGs are then likely to return after sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30