016
FXUS64 KLUB 011744
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

We finally have some eventful weather to discuss as a 1030mb surface
ridge moves from the central Plains into the Missouri River valley
today. A sharp upper level trough moving across the Upper Midwest
was responsible for a cold front currently moving through the Texas
Panhandle early this morning associated with a pre-frontal surface
trough. Winds will initially shift to the north before daybreak in
the wake of this trough. Wind speeds will not increase until closer
to sunrise as 5mb/3hr pressure rises work their way in behind the
frontal boundary a few hours after the trough. The pressure gradient
will relax in the afternoon gradually bringing speeds down through
the afternoon hours. Although the surface ridge will not be directly
on top of us tonight, we will still see a cool night with light
winds and clear skies. Widespread temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower 50s will be likely on the caprock with 50s off the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Warmer temperatures will return on Wednesday as lee-side surface
troughing over NE NM and SE CO results in breezy southwesterly
downsloping winds across West Texas. This general pattern will
continue through Thursday with highs Thursday afternoon likely to
be the warmest of the upcoming week. Southwesterly surface flow
will subside Friday, but our marathon of dry and very warm weather
will nevertheless continue through the foreseeable future as most
models depict the center of a broad upper ridge lingering near or
just west of our region. There are some hints (mainly in the
GFS/GEFS) of a weakness in the ridging aloft setting up over the
TX gulf coast early next week, but at best this would only provide
a very subtle reduction in temperatures with above normal highs
and dry weather still favored through at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period. ASOS observations show wind gusts near 20 kts across area
terminals. We expect these breezy northeast winds to continue through
21z. Winds will then relax and slowly veer through this evening
and become more easterly.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...PO