Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
254 FXUS64 KLUB 041742 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through Monday. - Slightly cooler weather and a chance of rain enters the forecast during the early to middle part of this coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Surface winds continue to become more breezy as the afternoon progresses as a surface low develops across the foothills of Colorado ahead of an upper trough. While winds will be strongest during the afternoon hours, they will remain relatively breezy through much of the night as the surface low moves into the Central Plains. Winds will decrease slightly Sunday morning as the surface low moves into the Great Lakes but will become slightly breezy once again by Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes southward across the Northern and Central Plains. This cold front will likely fall just short of reaching the northern Texas Panhandle by sunset. Winds will be predominately out of the south through Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The cold front is expected to stall once it reaches the Oklahoma Panhandle Sunday evening and should have little southward progression through Monday morning thanks to a lack of upper level support (southwesterly upper flow). Upper flow will transition to almost zonal Tuesday and, along with an upper shortwave trough passing across the Central Plains, will allow the front to slowly push through the FA. Some precip is possible along and behind the front mainly Monday in to Tuesday, but this will likely be of little benefit to the FA as upper level lift will be mostly lacking by the time the front drifts through. Precip chances will favor our western and northern zones. The FA should benefit from slightly cooler temps, however, with highs in the mid 70s/low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper high/ridge will build over the region by mid week and will dominate into the weekend. This will keep the FA dry with temps on the warm side, mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The main aviation concern is for low-level wind shear overnight from about 05 UTC through 13 UTC as a 40 kt southerly LLJ develops. Surface winds are not expected to completely decouple so we`ve kept a mention of LLWS out of the TAFs for now, but it will be choppy in the lowest few thousand feet. Otherwise, southerly breezes will persist during the daytime with VFR conditions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...33