Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
001 FXUS64 KLUB 161731 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Slight chance of storms over the far SW Panhandle and western South Plains this afternoon/evening. - Temperatures seesaw this weekend and early next week, including lows in the 30s by Sunday morning for some locales. - Elevated wildfire concerns for Saturday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A relatively strong upper low is moving northeastward across the Mountain West today. While much of the greatest forcing will remain well off to the north, the periphery of the low combined with the timing of the warmest part of the day should be just enough to trigger a potential of showers and thunderstorms across the far SW Panhandle and western South Plains. The current PoPs generally reflect the extent of the instability axis, which is quite narrow and reflects most of the models in terms of where they are placing any QPF. In any case, severe weather is not expected and much of the area will remain dry today. The lee troughing across the Rockies will lead to the development of a surface low which will gradually deepen over eastern CO and bring breezy southerly winds by this afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph are possible, particularly on the Caprock. These will diminish overnight as the low weakens and another quiet night is expected with lows ranging from around 50 to 60. Unidirectional SW flow through the upper levels will bring about another warm day Friday, with highs again generally in the mid-to- upper 80s. A weak shortwave ahead of an approaching trough may trigger some isolated convection over far eastern portions of the area by late-afternoon, however much of the region will remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The biggest change with this extended forecast involved boosting westerly winds on both Saturday and Monday which leads to an elevated wildfire threat. Otherwise, we`ll be contending with a progressive, semi-zonal flow from Friday night through much of next week puncuated by some legitimate cold fronts. Friday night starts with a positively-tilted trough just upstream of the forecast area. A dryline off the Caprock at this time may retreat a few counties west after sunset in advance of this trough, but with only meager forcing and diminishing ascent along the dryline by this time we don`t see an opportunity for precip. One exception to this exists in the far southeast TX Panhandle near a modest triple point with a cold front nudging south. If storms can initiate here overnight, they won`t linger in our area very long as 30-40 knots of SW steering flow would swiftly kick these out of the area. Things get a little more interesting toward daybreak Saturday as the base of the trough arrives with what is now progged to be more robust height falls (60 meters in 12 hours at 500 mb). The NAM is a slow outlier with this energy and will be dismissed in favor of the global guidance and CAMs - most of which feature top-down saturation along the trough axis by Saturday morning complete with virga and perhaps showers if the dry sub-cloud layer west of the dryline can be overcome. Opted to keep PoPs silent with this forecast, though some morning clouds were inserted over the NBM`s clear skies. Once this trough passes and sweeps the dryline east by midday, dewpoints fall into the 20s and 30s while fostering deeper mixing into 15-25 knots of higher momentum aloft. Along with continued above-normal temps, low RHs and drying fuels (worst in the southern Rolling Plains) an elevated fire danger is not out of the question. These breezy WNW winds collapse Saturday evening as a cold front dips south ahead of steady NNE winds overnight. A favorably-timed surface high in the far southwest TX Panhandle by early Sunday morning should crater lows nearby in the mid/upper 30s before this dry air quickly warms into the 70s by the afternoon. In the wake of Sunday`s cool surface ridging, lee troughing sharpens under deep westerly flow while promoting 20 to 25 mph SW winds areawide for Monday. NBM`s toasty highs in the 80s and 90s look good given this dry and breezy downslope component, so another elevated (borderline critical) fire threat seems legit for Monday. An upper trough zipping over the northern plains on Monday will drive a cold front our way by Monday night. Highs on Tuesday look to fair near or a little below normal for a change before moderating thereafter in southerly breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Breezy southerly winds near 20 kts will persist through this afternoon, with highest gusts at KPVW and KLBB. These will diminish this evening. VFR will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...19